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Saturday, December 24, 2022

Top US Energy Story -- 2022

Even Bloomberg had to report this. 

Saudi's Prince MBS: "We have so much oil, we burn it to produce electricity. No one else can do that."

New England: "Here, hold my (maple syrup) bucket." 

From Bloomberg:

The six-state grid relied on oil for at least a third of its power generation and for as much as 40% at times on Saturday, ISO New England data show.

Natural gas provided as little as 15% by mid-afternoon. [This suggests to me that New England is literally running out of natural gas.]

The region typically only uses oil to meet demand on the hottest and coldest days of the year as back up. Heading into the peak evening hours, New England issued a series of grid alerts warning of a possible shortfall of power reserves and asked market members to voluntarily conserve electricity.

The operator later said it’s trying to buy emergency supplies from market participants or neighboring regions. The situation is so tight that prices jumped to more than the $2,000 a megawatt-hour price cap on Saturday evening. This time last week, spot power was in the $30 range.

Meanwhile, ERCOT -- Texas -- is doing just fine. Thank you for asking. 

I Can Die Happy -- December 24, 2022

Right down the street from where I live. LOL.

Links everywhere.

But the big story: now "they're" upset that McDonald's is putting entry-level, maximum-wage earners out of work. Not true. The stores will still need one manager (who will work from home) and one sous-chef to oversee the robotic kitchen.  

 
The big question? Why did McDonald's choose Ft Worth as the first locale for this new restaurant.

Connecting the dots:

  • McDonald's sells beef
  • the beef capital of the US: Texas, specifically, Ft Worth
  • name one other city known for its "stockyard" -- LOL.

So Much Work Left To Be Done In The Bakken -- December 24, 2022

************************
So Much Work Left In The Bakken

During the boom, 250 active rigs and 2,000 wells drilled per year.

Now, 45 active rigs and 600 wells being drilled per year.

Production in 2022 will greatly exceed production in 2010.


Above, the Antelope-Sanish may be the best field in the Bakken. 

Below, the Bailey oil field.



The well:

  • 16611, 428, MRO, Carlson 21-29H, Bailey, t10/07; cum 500K 10/22;

Initial production, 2007:

BAKKEN5-20083152195598962320732070
BAKKEN4-20083039683657727178917890
BAKKEN3-200816243925171058000
BAKKEN2-200829359734307573273270
BAKKEN1-200831412243109142272270
BAKKEN12-2007314924508912075405400
BAKKEN11-200730513949481075118311830
BAKKEN10-200729764479892493120212020
BAKKEN9-20074179496712404694690

Re-frack, 2015:

BAKKEN9-20153012644125815793943264911408
BAKKEN8-2015311003010121503480766529302
BAKKEN7-201531152241520986121274510588344
BAKKEN6-2015301813218447128331408899182050
BAKKEN5-201522338132053485276012591020
BAKKEN4-2015182298229230251492154984
BAKKEN3-201511134311061947957144611
BAKKEN2-20150000000
BAKKEN1-2015122300101
BAKKEN12-201441070201466549

Current production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20223121482095116732842272686
BAKKEN9-202230210321141181327829098
BAKKEN8-202231217120981215339330170
BAKKEN7-202231229424611263342430326
BAKKEN6-20222822382232120226561383929
BAKKEN5-202227269527201330278313491067
BAKKEN4-2022191173103780817251340194
BAKKEN3-2022313016292915213486302030
BAKKEN2-20222018041800117917081149292
BAKKEN1-202214855853513858539164
BAKKEN12-2021311964201696619331360230
BAKKEN11-20213019781929111719381316301
BAKKEN10-202131163016488691731137948

 In 2015, the frack:

  • 30 stages; 3.1 million pounds proppant (a small frack)

In 2015, the well was re-entered and a new lateral was drilled:



In 2007, original spud:

I'm Up -- Merry Christmas Eve To All -- December 24, 2022

I'm up!

The Christmas weekend begins. 

I will start the morning watching my favorite Christmas movie, The Shop Around The Corner.

I watched it yesterday and I'm watching it again now. It's that good. 

The movie begins with all the major players arriving at "the corner."

The first two: Groucho Marx and Elon Musk.

Yes, I'm procrastinating. I don't want to blog about contemporary global events.

My sister sent me this in memory of our dad:


My dad's best speeding story: getting picked up by the same Montana highway patrolman -- stopped thirty minutes apart. And I think those were the days Montana did not have speed limits except reasonable and prudent

It took a special driver to get stopped -- twice -- at that time. 

Actually, I don't think Dad ever got stopped for speeding in Montana; but in North Dakota, he had so many speeding tickets he lost his driver's license and was required to take a remedial driver's education program in Bismarck, ND, to get it re-instated. He was about 70 years old at the time (?). 

He would have been late but ....

Weather Update -- Local -- DFW -- Christmas Eve Morning -- December 24, 2022

We made it through the night.

Some local outages overnight in Texas, including some in our county, but our neighborhood was fine.

We've kept the furnace off about 99% of the time throughout the duration of the polar vortex / cyclone bomb / deep freeze. The furnace is turned on for a few minutes when we get up to take off the chill, but then we turn it off again.

This morning, thermostat said it was 62°F in the apartment. We were toasty warm overnight in bed. Furnace is now on to take off the chill.

ERCOT is forecast to easily handle demand today. Temperature will get up to 36°F today and continually post new highs per the 10-day forecast though it will continue to drop just below freezing the next three nights.

PJM and ISO NE did not fare so well. [Holy mackerel: I just looked at ISO NE -- just like Saudi Arabia, burning oil to produce electricity. In the mix, oil is at 29% -- which is clearly a record. Solar is contributing just slightly less than wind. About 9% x 26% = wind and solar together accounting for two percent of New England's electricity. Demand is fairly normal.
The data suggests NE simply ran out of (or is running out of) natural gas.

Lots to post, but not in the mood. Just enjoying the opportunity to sleep in but wanted everyone to know we're safe.

Coffee in a few minutes.

By the way, the #1 gift this Christmas. A Starbucks card. It is estimated that one of every six Americans will get a Starbucks gift card this year. 

We have a Keurig. Three choices: Amazon's brand, Solimo; Donut Shop; and Starbucks.  I might add McCafe to the mix this year.

NFL: eleven games today, noon and ~ 3:00 p.m. starts, including the Dallas Cowboys at 3:25. Chiefs at noon. Nothing worth watching Sunday (three games) or Monday (one game).

Lego: I'm so toast warm in bed this morning, I don't want to get up and I certainly don't want to go out, but our local Lego reseller, open 10:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. will have a lot of specials. 

Belk: sales will be incredible. Generally running 60% to 70% off right now.  

Amazon delivering on time despite the freeze. A huge Lego package arrived yesterday.

************************
So Much Work Left In The Bakken

During the boom, 250 active rigs and 2,000 wells drilled per year.

Now, 45 active rigs and 600 wells being drilled per year.

Production in 2022 will greatly exceed production in 2010.


Above, the Antelope-Sanish may be the best field in the Bakken. 

Below, the Bailey oil field.



16611, 428, MRO, Carlson 21-29H, Bailey, t10/07; cum 500K 10/22;

Initial production, 2007:

BAKKEN5-20083152195598962320732070
BAKKEN4-20083039683657727178917890
BAKKEN3-200816243925171058000
BAKKEN2-200829359734307573273270
BAKKEN1-200831412243109142272270
BAKKEN12-2007314924508912075405400
BAKKEN11-200730513949481075118311830
BAKKEN10-200729764479892493120212020
BAKKEN9-20074179496712404694690

Re-frack, 2015:

BAKKEN9-20153012644125815793943264911408
BAKKEN8-2015311003010121503480766529302
BAKKEN7-201531152241520986121274510588344
BAKKEN6-2015301813218447128331408899182050
BAKKEN5-201522338132053485276012591020
BAKKEN4-2015182298229230251492154984
BAKKEN3-201511134311061947957144611
BAKKEN2-20150000000
BAKKEN1-2015122300101
BAKKEN12-201441070201466549

Current production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20223121482095116732842272686
BAKKEN9-202230210321141181327829098
BAKKEN8-202231217120981215339330170
BAKKEN7-202231229424611263342430326
BAKKEN6-20222822382232120226561383929
BAKKEN5-202227269527201330278313491067
BAKKEN4-2022191173103780817251340194
BAKKEN3-2022313016292915213486302030
BAKKEN2-20222018041800117917081149292
BAKKEN1-202214855853513858539164
BAKKEN12-2021311964201696619331360230
BAKKEN11-20213019781929111719381316301
BAKKEN10-202131163016488691731137948

 In 2015, the frack:

  • 30 stages; 3.1 million pounds proppant (a small frack)

In 2015, the well was re-entered and a new lateral was drilled:



In 2007, original spud: