Europe Has A Real Natural Gas Problem On Its Hands -- SeekingAlpha Contributor -- August 7, 2021

Link here, HFIR Energy: 

• EIA reported a bullish +13 Bcf injection yesterday. This was much lower than our estimate of +20 Bcf.
• Looking ahead, supply/demand are back in the deficit with warmer-than-normal weather expected in the next 15 days.
• TETCO resumption has not dented the tight physical market conditions in the South. European gas storage woes likely imply elevated US LNG exports for 2022.
• Lower 48 production remains flat, and the rise into year-end will likely be offset by LNG export capacity increase in Q2 2022.

This is quite interesting. Prior to HFIR posting this a reader sent me these notes, somewhat related:

I just popped over to the New England ISO site and saw that the June wholesale electricity price averaged $36/Mwh with natural gas pricing at $2.81/mmbtu at the region's 4 tolling connections. 

This is moderate electricity cost and low natural gas price. Natural gas plants provide 60% of New England's power.

Looking ahead, that $14/mmbtu at Algonquin Citygate (a major tolling point) is over double last year's cost and almost 5 times June's cost.

Furthermore, a referendum in November in Maine is likely to stifle a much-needed transmission line from Quebec (1,100 Mw Clean Energy Connect).

Like you, I have distanced myself somewhat from New England's ongoing 'energy drama'. 

That said, even a moderate winter will have very high electricity prices. 

If extended cold snaps occur, those folks will face some precarious situations vis a vis the availability of electricity. The looming high cost is already baked in.

Very, very interesting. 

What is most interesting, is what is not being said in all the news articles. It's a given that there will be an increase in the price of natural gas, whether or not there will be an outright shortage is yet to be seen. 

But this is what no one is talking about. It's very, very interesting.

If there is a relative shortage of natural gas, why are folks not asking why? Why is are the journalists not asking why? It's not a demand issue. Even under normal circumstances, energy demand does not grow that fast year over year, and with much of the economy still in lock down, there certainly is no significant increase in demand. 

So,  if it's not demand, what is it? 

Well, duh?

Supply.

Yup, it's all those nuclear plants, all those coal plants that were closed. And renewable energy did not make up the shortfall. And that's what they are not talking about. All they're talking about is the fact that natural gas is getting more expensive.