Global Population: Our Grandchildren Will See This -- July 23, 2022

Locator: 43000C.

Updates

July 12, 2024: getting worse. Some suggest the number could drop all the way to 525 million -- in the same ballpark as North America.

April 10, 2023: link here.

July 26, 2022: link here. 

Original Post 

First, by the end of the century, 2100. Graphic below.

By next year, India will surpass China in population, by the end of 2023. This simply amazes me. Graphic below.

Projections are that Nigeria, a relatively small country by geography, will have a population second to China, by the end of the century, and right now, unable to benefit from high oil prices. 

This story is absolutely criminal and it appears the UN is uninterested. Not surprising. 

Link here. 

From the linked olprice article by Julianne Geiger:

The severe revenue shortfall does not allow Nigeria to service its debt. 

The cost of Nigeria’s gasoline subsidy will be about 10 times what it had originally budgeted, Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari revealed in an April letter to lawmakers. 

That cost of that subsidy is expected to be just south of $10 billion. 

Unlike other major oil producers that have benefited handsomely from higher crude oil prices, Nigeria has negligible refining capacity, forcing it to import nearly all of the gasoline it consumes. 

And Nigeria must pay today’s high costs for that gasoline while continuing to sell it onto the consumer for much less in order to keep prices at 39 cents. 

The value of Nigeria’s petroleum imports far outweighs the value of its petroleum exports—to the tune of $43 billion. Nigeria has toyed with the idea of ending the gasoline subsidies, but the specter of fuel protests caused the President to scrap those plans.

Sri Lanka.

Panama.

Ecuador. 

Boris Johnson out.

Italian government falls (but that's probably not news).

Back to the first article, looking at projected population in 2100.

Full table, which might be a big hard to read. Go to the linked article or click on this image and zoom in:

Top seven countries in population in 2100:

I do not know Peter Zeihan's opinion on the southern surge (tag here for background) but I do know what he says in his 2022 book.

With regard to the southern surge:

• the US needs to embrace it positively, lovingly, and with the spirit of Ellis Island, and the Statue of Liberty; but,
• it must be done correctly.

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Other Observations

We could have fun with this all day, but here are the things that jump out at me:

• overall:
• biggest surprise: change in China's population
• second biggest surprise: Nigeria
  
• most concerning for me: (no) change in the US population over the century
• carbon emissions:
  
• if we do absolutely nothing with regard to CO2 emissions, note: the two countries which are #1 and #2 in emissions, China and the US -- total population falls precipitously (total US + China):
• I assume Nigeria will account for some CO2 emissions based on population but "nothing" in the big scheme of things (no industry), and it's their population that grows the largest.
• be careful with the graph above. It looks like India is the problem: population + coal. In fact, India's population contracts significantly also.
• economic growth: nothing kills an economy like lack of (no) population growth. 
• US. Flat. Needs the southern surge.
  
• Russia. Even worse. Russia needs the Ukraine.
  
• Japan. Even worse than Russia.
• China: on a percentage basis, it appears to be the worst of all; they need Taiwan.
  
• Europe -- not even one European country shows up on either side of the graphic. Bangladesh shows up on both sides, but Canada, Mexico, Argentina and Taiwan do not. Nor does South Africa. Not good news for any of these countries. 
• Brazil: same thing could be said about Brazil but I doubt anyone cares.
  
• energy demand: 
• add up the fourteen population numbers on the left side of the chart (4.710 billion) and the fourteen population numbers on the right side of the chart (4.712 billion); no population growth among the top fourteen countries.

Recommendation: read Peter Zeihan, c. 2022.