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Wednesday, January 19, 2022

A Little Comedic Relief -- WTI Just Went Over $87 Again -- January 19, 2022

Link here.


at No comments:

"One State's Trash Is Another State's Treasure" -- January 19, 2022

Link here.

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Whiting With One New Permit; Four Permits Renewed; $87-WTI -- January 19, 2022

Active rigs: NDIC list 30 active rigs; one is a SWD rig; one rig is listed twice:

$86.96
1/19/202201/19/202101/19/202001/19/201901/19/2018
Active Rigs2812566858

One new permit, #38741:

  • 38741, loc, Whiting, Joanna TTT 11-6H, to be sited in Sanish oil field, lot 4 section 6-153-91; 532 FNL and 752 FWL

Four permits renewed:

  • CLR: fous Chloe permits in Williams County;
at No comments:

MRO Charchenko Wells In Murphy Creek

The wells:

  • 36196, PA, MRO, Raleigh 44-20H, Murphy Creek,
  • 36197, AL/A, MRO, Reagan 14-21H, Murphy Creek, first production, 8/19; t--; cum 155K 11/21;
  • 36198, AL/A, MRO, Parmeter 14-21H, Murphy Creek, first production, 8/19; t--; cum 193K 11/21;
  • 36617, AL/A, MRO, Easton 44-20H, Murphy Creek, first production, 8/19; t--; cum 159K 11/21;

To the east, drilled in 2009 and had a huge jump in production, in mid-2017;

  • 17449, 128, MRO, Charchenko 14-21H, Murphy Creek, t2/09; cum 262K 11/21; huge jump in production, 8/17 - 9/17;

Farther east: this second generation daughter well drilled four years after the parent well; and has produced just as much as the parent well; something that "we've" been told isn't supposed to happen:

  • 25256, 1,398, MRO, Michael Charchenko 14-21H, Murphy Creek, t8/13; cum 254K 11/21; small halo effect summer of 2017;

Farthest east, in same section:

  • 17599, 307, MRO, Charchenko 34-21H, Murphy Creek, t2/09; cum 156K 11/21; small halo effect summer of 2017; nice halo effect in autumn of 2014;

So, there you have it. The Bakken never ceases to amaze me:

  • three generations of wells: two parent wells; one daughter well; and three granddaughter wells:
  • the second generation wells showed a halo effect; and will be better than the parent wells, something we're told doesn't happen; and,
  • three granddaughter wells (there would have been four, but one was canceled, at least for now) and they will be better than the previous two generations: and, on top of all that,
  • lots of room for more wells.

***********************************
Corky Hosted A Wine Tasting Earlier Today

Corky invited her out-of-town relatives.


Wine tasting with Corky's family and friends:


at No comments:

Agree 1000% With BofA --Tesla -- January 19, 2022

I didn't read the article. just saw the headline.

From ZeroHedge: Tesla's market share will collapse "in next few years."

I wonder if the article mentions these two things:

  • Tesla just pushed back its biggest money-maker: the CyberTruck, ceding first mover advantage to Ford; and,
  • no style changes in any of the Tesla models since originally launched; this didn't hurt Saab ... except Saab no longer makes cars.

SAAB Automobile initially went bankrupt in 2011 and, after a brief period under another company, stopped producing cars under the Saab name in 2014. Therefore, no, Saab is no longer making cars. ... SAAB is a Swedish company that began in aerospace and defense in the 1930s. -- Source.

The "best" two cars we ever owned were Saabs; owned them at the same time, a "his" and "hers." Both cars served us well while overseas. We left them in Europe in perfect condition. Gave the first one away when we left Germany, on our way to Turkey, and then gave the other one away when we departed Turkey. I remember well giving the first one away; don't recall who got the second car. Would have been left at Incirlik Air Base, Turkey. They were built to European specs and would not have passed US specs. US manufacturers protect(ed) their turf.

at No comments:

The Incredible XTO Johnson Trust Wells; A Closer Look At An XTO Well That Came Off Confidential List Two Years Ago -- January 19, 2022

Three Johnson Federal Trust wells, DUCs reported as completed here, results posted here.

The well:

  • 35047, drl,-->drl/NCW, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6EXH-N, Elidah, 33-053-08573, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 60K 11/21; cum 141K 1/22;
    • FracFocus: fracked 8/30/21 - 9/11/21; 8.76 million gallons of water; a typical/moderate frack for the Bakken; 88.77% water by mass;

Full production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2021295991859089361791382141379290
BAKKEN10-202100140000
BAKKEN9-20212182044439660966

Three wells of interest, east to west, nearest to farthest from #35047:
  • 17439, remains off line following recent #35047 frack; back on line 12/21; no huge jump in production, t11/08; cum 206K 1/22;
  • 27203, huge jump in production after #35047 fracked; back on line 10/21; nice jump in production; cum 339K 1/22;
  • 27204, never came off line while #35047 was fracked; back on line 2/21; cum 342K 1/22;

Graphics:




The XTO Johnson Trust wells:

  • 35044, drl/NCW, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6AXD, Siverston, t--; cum 176K 1/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2021305859858587250621480931428384938
BAKKEN10-20212660387603642990913836213806726
BAKKEN9-20212102702953255402554
  • 35045, PNC, ...21X-6A, Siverston;
  • 35046, drl/NCW, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6E, Siverston, t--; cum 159K 1/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2021304663446725322121041421001383872
BAKKEN10-2021256140061356445201262541236722452
BAKKEN9-2021272607144324203242
  • 35047, see above, 
  • 35048, drl/NCW, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6F, Siverston,  minimal production, 9/21; no more as of 11/21; back on line 12/21; cum 89K 1/22;
  • 35049, drl/NCW, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6B, Siverston, t--; cum 220K 1/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2021306572465576327681494051436605555
BAKKEN10-2021266450264735387221416451387492751
BAKKEN9-20212104204170307703077
  • 35050, PNC, ...21X-6G, Siverston;
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Updating The Last Few Wells That Reported No Production When They Came Off Confidential List Two Years Ago, 1Q20

Note: in a long note like this, there will be many content and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Earlier this week I went back and updated every well that came off the confidential list in 4Q21 -- one quarter ago. I noted that except for a handful of Slawson wells all wells that came off confidential list in 4Q21 were drilled to depth, completed, and showing some production. 

Now, let's go back and clean up 1Q20, two years ago. Some time ago I updated that list and found a lot of DUCs.

Let's update those DUCs. When I went back and looked at those wells off confidential list 1Q20, two years ago, the following were were still DUCs or in "drl" status, or no production data provided:

  • 36626, SI/NC, XTO, Haustveit 42X-10DXA, Beaver Lodge, no production data,
  • 35851, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Stephen 21X-19E, Heart Butte,
  • 35850, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Stephen 21X-19B, Heart Butte, 
  • 35852, drl, XTO, FBIR STephen 21X-19A, Heart Butte,
  • 35854, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19B, 
  • 35853, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19F, 
  • 35047, drl, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6EXH-N, Elidah, 
  • 35856, drl, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19A, Heart Butte, 
  • 35049, drl/NC, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6B, Siverston,  
  • 36424, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22C, Capa,  
  • 35048, drl/NC, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6F,
  • 36425, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22H, Capa, 
  • 36665, SI/NC, PetroShale, Jorgenson Federal 3MBH, Bear Den, 25K over 23 days;
  • 34951, drl/A, Petro Harvester PTL4 10-15 163-92 D, Portal, minimal production;
  • 34954, drl, Petro Harvester, PTL4 10-15 163-92 C, Portal,
  • 34953, drl, Petro Harvester, PTL4 10-15 163-92 B, Portal, 
  • 36427, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22HXE, 
  • 36426, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22D, Capa, 
  • 36680, drl, XTO, Mariner 13X-36POW-H, Bear Creek; see this note;  
  • 36617, conf, MRO, Easton 44-20H, Murphy Creek, not reported as of 2/18/20;
  • 36198, conf, MRO, Parmeter 14-21H, Murphy Creek, not reported as of 2/18/20; 
  • 36564, drl, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Emerson Claire 33-28-159N-100W MBH, Blue Ridge, no production data,
  • 36858, SI/NC, Slawson, Shakafox 7-28-21MLH, Big Bend, no production data,  
  • 33424, drl,  Sinclair Oil, Crosby Creek 5-5H, Little Knife, no production data
  • 36793, drl, Sinclair Oil, Harris Federal 2-32H, Lone Butte, t--; cum --;
  • 35424, SI/NC, MRO, Frances USA 11-15H, 33-061-04288, Reunion Bay, t--; cum --;
  • 34392, drl, White Butte Oil, Jore Federal 5-12H, Clark Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 32461, drl, Sinclair Oil, Crosby Creek 4-5H, Little Knife, no production data;  
  • 34851, SI/NC, CLR, Pittsburg 8-18H, 33-053-08510Banks, t--; cum --; fracked 6/3/19 - 6/21/19; 11.1 million gallons of water; 88.7% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.059;
  • 36943, drl, CLR, LCU Jessie 3-24H, Long Creek;
  • 36942, drl, CLR, LCU Jessie 2-24H1, Long Creek;
  • 34377, drl, White Butte Oil Operations, Jore Federal 10-12TFH,
  • 33806, SI/NC, BR, CCU Gopher 6-2-15TFH, Corral Creek, t--; cum --; 
  • 34378, drl, White Butte, Jore Federal 4-12H, Clarks Creek,
  • 34373, drl, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Jore Federal 11-12TFH, Clarks Creek,
  • 31794, drl, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-7C-31-1HS, Charlson,  
  • 36944, drl, CLR, LCU Jessie 4-24H1, Long Creek,  
  • 34375, drl, White Butte, Jore Federal 3-12H, Clarks Creek,
  • 34395, drl (2/21), White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Jore Federal 9-12TFH, Clarks Creek, 
  • 36308, drl/IA, Freedom Energy Operating, LLC, Oltman's Ocelot 1-21, Wildcat, target: Lodgepole:  

I may have missed a few but I posted at least initial production from the rest of the wells that came off confidential list 1Q20.

So, now, let's see if any of the above wells have reported at last some production:

  • 36626, SI/NC-->drl/NCW, , XTO, Haustveit 42X-10DXA, Beaver Lodge, no production data,
  • 35851, drl/NC-->drl/NCW, XTO, FBIR Stephen 21X-19E, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 35850, drl/NC-->drl/NCW, , XTO, FBIR Stephen 21X-19B, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 35852, drl-->drl/NCW, XTO, FBIR STephen 21X-19A, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 35854, drl/NC-->drl/NCW, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19B, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 35853, drl/NC-->drl/NCW, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19F, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • ****35047, drl,-->drl/NCW, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6EXH-N, Elidah, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 60K 11/21;
  • 35856, drl-->drl/NCW, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19A, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • ***35049, drl/NC, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6B, Siverston, no change in well status but huge production; first production, 10/21; t--; cum 131K 11/21;
  • 36424, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22C, Capa, unchanged, 11/21;
  • 35048, drl/NC, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6F, Siverston, status of well unchanged, although minimal production 9/21; none after that;
  • 36425, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22H, Capa, unchanged, 11/21;
  • 36665, SI/NC-->AL/A, PetroShale, Jorgenson Federal 3MBH, Bear Den, 25K over 23 days; first production, 11/19; t--; cum 126K 11/21;
  • 34951, drl/A-->AL/A, Petro Harvester PTL4 10-15 163-92 D, Portal, minimal production; first production, 11/19; t--; cum 70K 11/21;
  • 34954, drl-->AL/A, Petro Harvester, PTL4 10-15 163-92 C, Portal, A Madison well, first production, 11/19; t--; cum 56K 11/21;
  • 34953, drl-->255, Petro Harvester, PTL4 10-15 163-92 B, Portal, a Madison well, t1/20; cum 92K 11/21;
  • 36427, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22HXE, Capa, unchanged, 11/21;
  • 36426, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22D, Capa, unchanged, 11/21;
  • 36680, drl, XTO, Mariner 13X-36POW-H, Bear Creek; see this note;  
  • ***36617, conf-->AL/A, MRO, Easton 44-20H, Murphy Creek, not reported as of 2/18/20; first production, 8/19; t--; cum 159K 11/21;
  • ***36198, conf-->AL/A, MRO, Parmeter 14-21H, Murphy Creek, not reported as of 2/18/20; first production, 8/19; t--; cum 193K 11/21;
  • 36564, drl-->286, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Emerson Claire 33-28-159N-100W MBH, Blue Ridge, t1/20; cum 210K 11/21;
  • 36858, SI/NC, Slawson, Shakafox 7-28-21MLH, Big Bend, no production data,  
  • ***33424, drl-->drl/A, Sinclair Oil, Crosby Creek 5-5H, Little Knife, first productioni, 11/21; t--; cum 27K 11/21;
  • 36793, drl-->drl/A, Sinclair Oil, Harris Federal 2-32H, Lone Butte, t--; cum --; still no production data provided as of 11/21;
  • ***35424, SI/NC-->5,455, MRO, Frances USA 11-15H, 33-061-04288, Reunion Bay, t1/20; cum 410K 11/21;
  • 34392, drl-->drl/A, White Butte Oil, Jore Federal 5-12H, Clark Creek, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 94K 11/21;
  • 32461, drl-->drl/A, Sinclair Oil, Crosby Creek 4-5H, Little Knife, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 32K 11/21;
  • ***34851, SI/NC-->SI/A, CLR, Pittsburg 8-18H, 33-053-08510; Banks, first production, 1/20; ***t--; cum --; fracked 6/3/19 - 6/21/19; 11.1 million gallons of water; 88.7% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.059; cum 246K 11/21;
  • **36943, drl-->drl/A, CLR, LCU Jessie 3-24H, Long Creek; first production, 4/21; t--; cum 184K 11/21;
  • ***36942, drl-->drl/A, CLR, LCU Jessie 2-24H1, Long Creek; first production, 4/21; t--; cum 210K 11/21;
  • 34377, drl-->drl/A, White Butte Oil Operations, Jore Federal 10-12TFH, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 55K 11/21;
  • 33806, SI/NC-->SI/A, BR, CCU Gopher 6-2-15TFH, Corral Creek, first production, 3/21; t--; cum 190K 11/21;
  • 34378, drl-->drl/A, White Butte, Jore Federal 4-12H, Clarks Creek, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 76K 11/21;
  • 34373, drl-->drl/A, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Jore Federal 11-12TFH, Clarks Creek, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 61K 11/21;
  • 31794, drl-->F/A, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-7C-31-1HS, Charlson,  first production, 10/20; t--; cum 219K 11/21;
  • 36944, drl-->drl/A, CLR, LCU Jessie 4-24H1, Long Creek, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 163K 11/21;
  • 34375, drl-->drl/A, White Butte, Jore Federal 3-12H, Clarks Creek, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 61K 11/21;
  • 34395, drl (2/21)-->drl/A, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Jore Federal 9-12TFH, Clarks Creek,  first production, 7/21; t--; cum 38K 11/21;
  • 36308, drl/IA-->PA, Freedom Energy Operating, LLC, Oltman's Ocelot 1-21, Wildcat, target: Lodgepole: 

I think some interesting observations can be made. 

at No comments:

How Bad Is It? BuzzFeed Just Collapsed -- January 19, 2022

Link here.

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Crude Oil Futures Expiration Dates -- Current Contracts Expire Tomorrow -- Volatility Noted -- Pushing Toward $88 WTI -- January 19, 2022

Link here. Futures.

Symbols:

  • CLG22
    • C: crude oil
    • L: light crude
    • G: February
    • 22: year (2022)
  • Months:
    • January: F
    • February: G
    • March: H
    • April: J
    • May: K
    • Jun: M
    • Jul: N
    • Aug: Q
    • Sep: U
    • Oct: V
    • Nov: X
    • Dec: Z
at No comments:

Bakken DUCs -- January, 2022

Raw data provided by a reader. Transferring the reader's data to my spreadsheet could have resulted in errors, but it appears correct as received.

My narrative has not changed: in the Bakken, rig counts don't matter (don't take that out of context); frack spreads do. However, across all shale plays, analysts now suggest the tide has turned and rigs are not keeping up with fracking activity as seen by decline in the number of DUCs. I linked an incredibly good analysis yesterday on this very issue, especially why DUCs are particularly important. 

Bakken


Drilled

Completed

DUC

Dec-13

--

--

570

Jan-14

178

143

605

Feb-14

210

158

657

Mar-14

224

218

663

Apr-14

217

207

673

May-14

226

208

691

Jun-14

236

225

702

Jul-14

250

243

709

Aug-14

226

207

728

Sep-14

256

232

752

Oct-14

186

243

695

Nov-14

209

202

702

Dec-14

224

194

732

Jan-17

62

52

781

Feb-17

51

58

774

Mar-17

78

71

781

Apr-17

78

104

755

May-17

94

82

767

Jun-17

76

105

738

Jul-17

95

103

730

Aug-17

99

110

719

Sep-17

98

97

720

Oct-17

104

110

714

Nov-17

93

86

721

Dec-17

77

65

733

Jan-18

107

72

768

Feb-18

74

74

768

Mar-18

95

90

773

Apr-18

109

110

772

May-18

124

131

765

Jun-18

108

118

755

Jul-18

134

155

734

Aug-18

108

138

704

Sep-18

108

122

690

Oct-18

120

118

692

Nov-18

110

99

703

Dec-18

108

70

741

Jan-19

120

71

790

Feb-19

108

56

842

Mar-19

111

110

843

Apr-19

118

112

849

May-19

127

127

849

Jun-19

118

149

818

Jul-19

122

122

818

Aug-19

122

144

796

Sep-19

110

88

818

Oct-19

116

108

826

Nov-19

96

88

834

Dec-19

94

86

842

Jan-20

99

98

843

Feb-20

94

100

837

Mar-20

94

108

823

Apr-20

69

33

859

May-20

33

14

878

Jun-20

18

11

885

Jul-20

18

22

881

Aug-20

19

27

873

Sep-20

18

51

840

Oct-20

19

41

818

Nov-20

20

31

807

Dec-20

20

50

777

Jan-21

20

42

755

Feb-21

19

26

748

Mar-21

25

47

726

Apr-21

27

52

701

May-21

29

68

662

Jun-21

31

65

628

Jul-21

32

62

598

Aug-21

39

66

571

Sep-21

41

68

544

Oct-21

42

71

515

Nov-21

43

73

485

Dec-21

46

73

458

 

at 2 comments: