Raw data provided by a reader. Transferring the reader's data to my spreadsheet could have resulted in errors, but it appears correct as received.
My narrative has not changed: in the Bakken, rig counts don't matter (don't take that out of context); frack spreads do. However, across all shale plays, analysts now suggest the tide has turned and rigs are not keeping up with fracking activity as seen by decline in the number of DUCs. I linked an incredibly good analysis yesterday on this very issue, especially why DUCs are particularly important.
|
|
Bakken |
||
|
|
Drilled |
Completed |
DUC |
|
Dec-13 |
-- |
-- |
570 |
|
Jan-14 |
178 |
143 |
605 |
|
Feb-14 |
210 |
158 |
657 |
|
Mar-14 |
224 |
218 |
663 |
|
Apr-14 |
217 |
207 |
673 |
|
May-14 |
226 |
208 |
691 |
|
Jun-14 |
236 |
225 |
702 |
|
Jul-14 |
250 |
243 |
709 |
|
Aug-14 |
226 |
207 |
728 |
|
Sep-14 |
256 |
232 |
752 |
|
Oct-14 |
186 |
243 |
695 |
|
Nov-14 |
209 |
202 |
702 |
|
Dec-14 |
224 |
194 |
732 |
|
Jan-17 |
62 |
52 |
781 |
|
Feb-17 |
51 |
58 |
774 |
|
Mar-17 |
78 |
71 |
781 |
|
Apr-17 |
78 |
104 |
755 |
|
May-17 |
94 |
82 |
767 |
|
Jun-17 |
76 |
105 |
738 |
|
Jul-17 |
95 |
103 |
730 |
|
Aug-17 |
99 |
110 |
719 |
|
Sep-17 |
98 |
97 |
720 |
|
Oct-17 |
104 |
110 |
714 |
|
Nov-17 |
93 |
86 |
721 |
|
Dec-17 |
77 |
65 |
733 |
|
Jan-18 |
107 |
72 |
768 |
|
Feb-18 |
74 |
74 |
768 |
|
Mar-18 |
95 |
90 |
773 |
|
Apr-18 |
109 |
110 |
772 |
|
May-18 |
124 |
131 |
765 |
|
Jun-18 |
108 |
118 |
755 |
|
Jul-18 |
134 |
155 |
734 |
|
Aug-18 |
108 |
138 |
704 |
|
Sep-18 |
108 |
122 |
690 |
|
Oct-18 |
120 |
118 |
692 |
|
Nov-18 |
110 |
99 |
703 |
|
Dec-18 |
108 |
70 |
741 |
|
Jan-19 |
120 |
71 |
790 |
|
Feb-19 |
108 |
56 |
842 |
|
Mar-19 |
111 |
110 |
843 |
|
Apr-19 |
118 |
112 |
849 |
|
May-19 |
127 |
127 |
849 |
|
Jun-19 |
118 |
149 |
818 |
|
Jul-19 |
122 |
122 |
818 |
|
Aug-19 |
122 |
144 |
796 |
|
Sep-19 |
110 |
88 |
818 |
|
Oct-19 |
116 |
108 |
826 |
|
Nov-19 |
96 |
88 |
834 |
|
Dec-19 |
94 |
86 |
842 |
|
Jan-20 |
99 |
98 |
843 |
|
Feb-20 |
94 |
100 |
837 |
|
Mar-20 |
94 |
108 |
823 |
|
Apr-20 |
69 |
33 |
859 |
|
May-20 |
33 |
14 |
878 |
|
Jun-20 |
18 |
11 |
885 |
|
Jul-20 |
18 |
22 |
881 |
|
Aug-20 |
19 |
27 |
873 |
|
Sep-20 |
18 |
51 |
840 |
|
Oct-20 |
19 |
41 |
818 |
|
Nov-20 |
20 |
31 |
807 |
|
Dec-20 |
20 |
50 |
777 |
|
Jan-21 |
20 |
42 |
755 |
|
Feb-21 |
19 |
26 |
748 |
|
Mar-21 |
25 |
47 |
726 |
|
Apr-21 |
27 |
52 |
701 |
|
May-21 |
29 |
68 |
662 |
|
Jun-21 |
31 |
65 |
628 |
|
Jul-21 |
32 |
62 |
598 |
|
Aug-21 |
39 |
66 |
571 |
|
Sep-21 |
41 |
68 |
544 |
|
Oct-21 |
42 |
71 |
515 |
|
Nov-21 |
43 |
73 |
485 |
|
Dec-21 |
46 |
73 |
458 |
As per quick analysis of the data presented, need about 60 wells drilled/ month to remain even. Given what you have presented in the past few months, as long as we stay in the “sweet spots”, we would need about 45 rigs operating to stay so called even.
ReplyDelete"Forty-five" is about the most reasonable number anyone has suggested. I can't disagree.
DeleteYou know that I'm very obstinate about this whole issue -- rig count vs frack spread count -- but I'm gradually coming to agree with those who say more rigs / more drilling is needed.
Anecdotally, it seems frack spreads are now keeping up with drilling and by spring we will need to see more drilling. Generally, not much fracking is done during the winter, so that may keep the DUC count up for the next six months (winter; then spring thaw -- road conditions).
Getting to 45 rigs shouldn't be all that difficult. There are several operators that have no active rigs in North Dakota, and several more that have but one rig and should have two to three rigs if labor is available.