GDPNow -- Chance Of Recession Pushed Out To 2027 -- May 5, 2023

Locator: 445702GDP.

Updates 

Later, 1:36 p.m. CT: BLS.

Later, 1:33 p.m. CT: simply incredible.

Later, 12:20 p.m. CT: the original note's reference to 2027 was "tongue-in-cheek," of course, but it appears not as far in as one might think. Bloomberg agrees. Let's not forget: by now it's clearly the Biden economy. I'm not saying that because I like / dislike / endorse Biden / endorse Trump, it's because with this economy -- at least for some of us -- MAGA is growing thin.

Anyone looking for signs of an imminent downturn for the US economy won’t find it in the latest employment data.

That’s the takeaway from the monthly jobs numbers out Friday, which showed an acceleration in hiring and pay gains in April as working-age Americans continued streaming back into the labor market.

The combination of rising employment and wages is helping to underpin consumer spending even as banking turmoil is raising recession fears. [Banking fears were greatly relieved Friday, May 5, 2023. Greatly relieved.]

While faster pay growth will keep the Federal Reserve uneasy about inflationary pressures, it likely won’t be enough to spur the US central bank back into action after signaling earlier this week that its tightening cycle will probably pause for now.

“Labor market momentum is decelerating from a high level, but I don’t see signs here that it’s rolling over or that a recession is imminent,” said Blerina Uruci, chief US economist at T. Rowe Price. “But I do think the rapid tightening in monetary policy and the recent shock to credit conditions are eventually going to drive the US economy into some kind of a contraction.”

Original Post 

GDPNow spikes 50%.

Likelihood of recession pushed to the right by at least another six months, bringing likelihood of recession out to 2027, but we'll hear talking heads talk about that recession occurring later this year, but to save face, they will call it a soft landing.

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The Downfall Of Trump

By the way, I never did get back to the four stories over at Drudge this week that -- at some point -- reach a tipping point:

• Trump says he won't debate. Biden supporters don't want Biden to debate either. Advantage: Biden.
• Trump won't offer defense in rape trial. Americans don't understand financial fraud, but they understand rape. But say what? Won't offer a defense in a rape trial?
• Trump libel suit against NYT -- a huge loss; Trump will pay all legal fees.
• Leader of "Trump's Army" found guilty of sedition. All the DEMS need is one e-mail, and Trump loved to text.
  

Agree 1000% these are all political hit pieces and I can even be accused of trolling (nolo contendere) but those are the headlines and at some point ...

This doesn't mean Trump won't get the GOP nomination but ... these stories don't play well in my household ...

... one word: Bill.

How bad could the rape story be. One example: the NYT puts "every" story behind a paywall. Not this one.