Locator: 44571ECON.
Goldilocks economy? Doubt me? See Hong Kong way down below.
Why did the Dow jump 550 points today?
First two facts, the sundae:- earlier in week: Fed signals a pause or an end to rate increases;
- two days later: jobs number crushes expectations.
Cherry on top of that sundae:
- the banking crisis seems contained (at least for now).
At some point we're going to start hearing commentary along this line:
- the US economy is "on fire" (great)
- the Chinese economy is gradually recovering
- Europe survived the energy concerns of winter
Inflation is not due to government spending (don't take that out of context):
- current inflation is due to supply chain issues; though improved, supply chain issues have never fully recovered
- some supply chain issues are due to raw material issues in third world countries due to Covid;
- a lot of Americans are unaware of how bad Covid affected lithium miners, for example, overseas, as just one example;
- some supply chain issues are due to "things" like the construction boom in California (reported to be the biggest construction boom since the Great Depression [almost one century ago])
- much of the supply chain issues are due to tectonic changes in attitude (EVs: lithium, semiconductors)
The second cherry on that sundae:
- earnings.
- AAPL's earnings yesterday
So, if you are an investor, think about this:
- the Fed signals a pause; could cut;
- jobs number suggests economy is "on fire";
- construction boom in California -- not on anyone's bingo card;
- earnings so much better than anticipated; AAPL reassured everyone;
- banking crisis -- contained going into the weekend.
- layoffs: have peaked.
Result:
- Dow up 550 points today.
****************************
Hong Kong
No comments:
Post a Comment