Pages

Saturday, December 2, 2023

A Lot Of Memories -- December 2, 2023

Locator: 46228ARCHIVES.

I was born in Bismarck, ND, in 1951.

Two years later, our family of four moved Williston, and eventually became a family of eight.

I graduated from Williston High School, 1969, the best year for:

  • music; and,
  • muscle cars

The Lewis and Clark Bridge southwest of Williston:

The original two lane Lewis and Clark Bridge in Williston was built in 1927. Set 50 feet upstream from the current bridge location, its predecessor was a pontoon bridge built in 1916.
After a flood took out the pontoon bridge, the first steel bridge was constructed.
This version of the Lewis and Clark was a very steel-heavy structure compared with the current bridge.
In 1973, a new bridge was constructed to keep up with traffic demand and the weight of larger, more modern trucks.
The bridge is 36 feet wide and 1,530 feet long. During construction, crews used 228 tons of concrete and eleven hundred tons of steel to build the bridge. The ribbon cutting for the new bridge was held in November 1973. State and local leaders were present to cut the ribbon, and the dedication ceremony included a cannon salute and several marching selections by the local American Legion Drum and Bugle Corps.
Soon after the completion of the modern bridge, the previous bridge was demolished.
My dad was a Williams County Commissioner when the bridge was dedicated, and spoke at the 1973 dedication. I missed the dedication; I was in college, Augustana College, Sioux Falls, SD.

The map of the Williston area now:


********************
Williston Memories

Outside of my family the individual that had the most influence on my high school years, and perhaps my entire life: "Jo" Ashmore. She died in 2017. Wow, what a story. I did not know. When I came across this, the "story" hit me like a ton of bricks. Think of the most important person in your life in high school, multiply the feelings you have for that individual by ten and you might come close to the thoughts I have about Ms Ashmore. I'm sure I would not have accomplished half the things I accomplished in life without her mentorship. Wow, I had a great high school experience.

Link here. Archived.

Two MRO Wells In Bailey Oil Field With Second Jump In Production -- December 2, 2023

Locator: 46227MRO.

From November 6, 2023:

MRO DUCs reported as completed:

  • 38017, 3,437, MRO, Bean USA 31-18H, Bailey, t--; cum 134K 9/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023302835228348417253112530782249
BAKKEN8-202331309913094352879317783158088
BAKKEN7-2023303612536164676813565035300226
BAKKEN6-20232338060379241132553615635589426
  • 38018, 4,244, MRO, Borrud USA 3441-18H, Bailey, t--; cum 105K 9/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023303573635664366123944739013315
BAKKEN8-202320248172481926554260832592073
BAKKEN7-2023254416744049634213658036226228
  • 38019, 2,695, MRO, Chester USA 41-18TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 101K 9/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023302945329439454403170631357253
BAKKEN8-202331301983015854757303853019684
BAKKEN7-2023293768837600708433771437343239
BAKKEN6-20232337123699112393546349042
  • 30548, PNC/A --> 2,034--> conf, MRO, Juliet 14-8TFH, Bailey, npd;

Wells of interest:

  • 17357, 503, MRO, David Beck USA 24-7H, Bailey, t12/08; cum 523K 9/23;

recent production; note produciton jumpt:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023291111811195139412349521626416
BAKKEN8-20233117325174702402631817278772179
BAKKEN7-20233123308232853421034673293853146
BAKKEN6-2023302527725190487962848225856949
BAKKEN5-20232726217261988033626610217191144
BAKKEN4-2023131069610219791751036879291189
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-20230000000
BAKKEN1-20231313157505
BAKKEN12-2022186477274041521135410
BAKKEN11-202230163915748372801246225
BAKKEN10-20223120782137116141143620115
BAKKEN9-2022302241236211743223283123
BAKKEN8-20223119642104103925702038172

 Another production jump back in 2015:

BAKKEN1-201531129121273253671132374072348
BAKKEN12-2014114503435423382446191916
BAKKEN11-2014414722222881354
BAKKEN10-2014234733498824332736212097
BAKKEN9-20143077167716472444422353211
BAKKEN8-20142712628121314460830537683040
BAKKEN7-20140000000
BAKKEN6-20140000000
BAKKEN5-2014616045646303109150
BAKKEN4-20142910781107245101264664
BAKKEN3-201431120511452726750360
BAKKEN2-2014281083932246106171562
BAKKEN1-20143112341407247121983170
BAKKEN12-201331125111452931148529433
BAKKEN11-20133012141136276933456297
BAKKEN10-201331126613973021252837229
BAKKEN9-201330124511202971301994127
BAKKEN8-201331124613333091324829313

Initial production back in 2008 -- 15 years ago -- and still going better than ever --

BAKKEN5-20093135093569790246324630
BAKKEN4-20093038923938875274627460
BAKKEN3-20093146994693917324532450
BAKKEN2-20092341194110962215721570
BAKKEN1-2009314281447396247624760
BAKKEN12-2008135556500605455450

 Another well with jump in production

  • 17417, 376, MRO, Olson 14-20H, t12/08; cum 443K 9/23; recent production; it also had a second jump in production in 2015::
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023301283112824571261354813330181
BAKKEN8-202328100361008246841103201023352
BAKKEN7-2023171361313533830991350313317128
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-2023311336139667026962286112
BAKKEN2-2023281244123657324061943187
BAKKEN1-2023311181109956723341754301
BAKKEN12-2022279619854391910159596
BAKKEN11-202230124212705692428205789
BAKKEN10-2022311299124061225212023197

Enerplus Wells Sited In Lot 1 - Section 3 - 148 - 94 -- "The Wild Kingdom" -- An Update -- December 2, 2023

Locator: 46226ERF.

These wells are tracked here; this page won't be updated.

The wells:

  • 36274, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Salmon 149-94-36D-25H-TF, Phaelon Butte:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20232690527707
8-2023021
  • 36275, PNC/EXP--->conf, Enerplus, Sturgeon 149-94-36D-2H-TF, Phaelens Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20233763833864
8-20239686
  • 36276, drl/NC-->loc/loc, Enerplus, Lemur 148-94-03B-10H-TF, McGregory Buttes, npd,
  • 36277, PNC/EXP-->loc/loc, Enerplus, Gazelle 148-94-03A-10H, McGregory Buttes, npd,
  • 36278, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Fossa 149-93-31D-30H-LL, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20233508935856
  • 36279, PNC/EXP-->loc/loc, Enerplus, Aardwolf 148-94-03A-10H, McGregory Buttes, npd;
  • 36280, PNC/EXP-->loc-->conf, Enerplus, Meerkat 149-93-31D-30H, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20231233913570
  • 36281, PNC/EXP-->loc/loc, Enerplus, Elephant 148-94-03A-10H-TF, McGregory Buttes, npd;
  • 36282, PNC/EXP-->loc-->conf, Enerplus, Warthog 149-93-31D-30H- TF, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20231363210329
  • 36283, PNC/EXP-->loc/PNC, Enerplus, Zebra 148-94-03A-10H-TF-LL, McGregory Buttes, npd,

The maps:



Re-Fracking In The Bakken -- December 2, 2023

Locator: 46224MRO.

Previously posted: #17064.

Well of interest:

  • 17064, 514, MRO, Dan Tuhy 14-32H, Bailey, t6/08; cum 517K 9/23:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023302663426543364392263422230302
BAKKEN8-202328139351386640144127051260047
BAKKEN7-2023820552044223542784274823
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-2023412526679263125111
BAKKEN1-202331128412786122876253754
BAKKEN12-202228107510335462793249243
BAKKEN11-2022301217125761731242729109

So, what did the production look like before the above posted?

A jump in production back in 2015:

BAKKEN4-20153089118909316868604942785
BAKKEN3-20152610116102644381705245531266
BAKKEN2-201519923592034075624041061036
BAKKEN1-20152065086699317242272645766
BAKKEN12-20142199549763385466784717770
BAKKEN11-20140000000
BAKKEN10-20146168235221649221
BAKKEN9-20143091867615186753455
BAKKEN8-2014309291139172766305187
BAKKEN7-201431954110917594461442
BAKKEN6-20143091767918093759267
BAKKEN5-201431950892192105473531
BAKKEN4-2014309201128177104773732
BAKKEN3-201431975906195113080634
BAKKEN2-20142890692218598868142
BAKKEN1-201431998932254110873184

Compare with production when it all began in 2008:

BAKKEN2-20092835913485423186718670
BAKKEN1-20092940934059458212321230
BAKKEN12-20083145315094438146814680
BAKKEN11-20083048584474511300530050
BAKKEN10-20083155865569599331133110
BAKKEN9-20083064216757683369336930
BAKKEN8-20083179837519737492049200
BAKKEN7-20082380247934592389738970
BAKKEN6-200826826383111490000
BAKKEN5-20089551228118000

PSX -- For Investors -- December 2, 2023

Locator: 46222PSX.

From Barron's, so you know it has to be good.

A little activism from Elliott Management nudged Phillips 66 stock to a record close, and if the firm gets its way, there may be more upside ahead.
But while Elliott criticized Phillips 66’s underperformance and missteps in a letter to the company’s board, it appeared to be supportive of plans laid out by Chief Executive Mark Lashier, which include selling some $3 billion of noncore assets and planning to return more capital to shareholders. Still, Elliott believes Phillips 66 could use more prodding and is seeking two seats on the board.

Elliott believes Phillips 66 shares could advance 75%

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.


Oil Price Volatility -- Explained -- Sort Of -- December 2, 2023

 Locator: 46221OIL.

Both of these articles are behind a paywall. One is from Bloomberg and the other is from The WSJ


From The WSJ -- again this article is a year old but nothing has changed.

It has been a tough year (2022) for oil traders. Even the computers haven’t been able to get it right consistently. Wall Street is closely tracking firms that use trend-following algorithms to trade oil futures, which profited mightily from betting on higher prices as crude climbed to more than $120 per barrel this spring. But with oil falling bumpily since June, the trend-followers have waffled between bullish and bearish wagers and given some of those profits back.

Analysts are blaming them for amplifying oil’s wild price swings. Traders are monitoring them to steer clear of the waves they make in the market. Investors are mimicking them for profit. And this year’s oil-price roller-coaster ride is putting their logic to the test.

Recent research from Goldman Sachs cited so-called commodity trading advisers for intensifying a recent five-week slide in which oil dropped nearly 23%. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, landed at a recent low around $79 a barrel, close to where it started the year.

Commodity trading adviser, or CTA, is industry jargon for a hedge fund that uses computer algorithms to divine and follow price trends, typically by comparing recent prices to their average over a previous period. Despite their name, CTAs trade futures on currencies, stocks, and bonds in addition to commodities such as oil.

Like previous ones, “the most recent selloff, has also been associated with substantial CTA liquidations,” says Daniel Ghali, senior commodities strategist at TD Securities.

Bottom line: CTAs have no emotion, do not read financial statements, do not follow politics, do not know the difference between computer chips and potato chips. They simply track price changes over time... from as short a period as one minute to as long as years. 

Chart Of The Day -- December 2, 2023

Locator: 46220TECH.

Before we get to the chart, from MarketBeat a few days ago:

My reply: who cares?

This reminds me of a story. Almost two decades ago (?) an insurance agent, who clearly did not have my interests in mind, made a suggestion with regard to insurance. His suggestion was very, very, very enticing. But his suggestion was really all about the insurance company and not about my family. 

I was given two options: my current insurance plan -- quite involved, and quite robust -- or this guy's new suggestion -- simple, but new (no history on which to judge) -- so two options. In his mind, the insurance agent's mind, it was a binary choice: I could stay with my plan with was awesome, or go with his plan which might be even more awesome. The monthly premium would not change.

I honestly did not know what to do. Then I slept on it, as they say.

I made the best decision ever. LOL. I doubled my monthly premium -- I kept the awesome plan that I already had and bought the insurance agent's plan which turned out to be awesome, also. In one respect, his plan was better; in another respect, my original insurance plan was better.

Because of the way the two plans are "configured," one cannot compare "dollars-and-cents" return of one plan with the other. But instead of one awesome plan, I have two awesome plans.

Now back to the daily chart.

MSFT and BRK have both been around a long time.

One year ago and five years ago we all had the same information on MSFT and BRK.

Hindsight is 20/20:


By the way, speaking of Microsoft vs Nvidia vs Berkshire, right now, today, as we speak, 50% of the BRK equity portfolio is in one ticker: AAPL. So, in a sense, if one were to re-phrase the discussion, it could quickly become Microsoft vs Nvidia vs Apple, Inc.

BRKpays no dividends and under current management, never will.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Parting shot(s):


Peter Lynch, famously, had 20.