Taking Inventory -- Where Are We Today? -- Commentary -- September 2, 2021

Overnight:

• most under-reported number: implied US oil demand has surged -- EIA; not yet seeing the analysis
• pay attention to the chart at this post -- it's more than remarkable;
• 2019, pre-pandemic record: less than 22 million bpd; but the norm was around 20 mbpd
• September, 2021: trending toward 23 million bpd; huge jump started with summer driving, but recent surge is unprecedented (fact-check please)
• incredibly interesting data point, which I will come back to later: OPEC+ crude exports fell 1.1 million bpd in August m/m; link here;

Energy:

• Europe in deep doo-doo: energy prices rising faster than ever expected
• Russia controls natural gas, Nordstreeam 2
• Groningen days are coming to an end;
  
• US:
• current administration hates fossil fuel
• even as fossil fuel demand is soaring in the US
  
• OPEC / Russia in control (again)
• Keystone XL killed; this will come back to haunt us; no one will connect the dots;
  
• Russia becomes second biggest source of imported oil for US
• did we mention: even as fossil fuel demand is soaring in the US
• obvious that wind / solar can't possible meet demand

War is over

• we'll give this one more day, then time to move on
• that's a biggie; it's not Vietnam but it's still a biggie; in some regards it might be bigger than Vietnam:
• US intel community: circular firing squad
  

Hurricane Ida:

• we'll give this one more day, then time to move on
• a regional story, that's all

Covid-19:

• things are starting to become clear;
• the Dakotas are in panic mode: both governors tell us their hospitals are overwhelmed
• South Dakota's largest hospitals bracing for huge Covid-19 flow;
• North Dakota's governor Doug Burgum pleads;
  

Investors:

• the bull market continues; maybe more than ever
• NASDAQ up 116 points; Dow and S&P 500 up a bit, not much
• AAPL: hits an intra-day high; still lags the market
• trading
• tax plan in Congress hits obstacle; Heidi Heitkamp leading opposition charge;
• if they can't pass this tax bill, nothing much will pass?