It was another incredible day -- way too much stuff happening to keep up.
Good luck to all.
I'm outta here but will be back sometime tomorrow.
US days of supply of crude oil: 40.4 days, third week in a row that the number has declined and is down from a record (?) 42.0 days this same week one month ago. Woo-hoo. Link here.
For newbies, a more "reasonable" number would be 21 days of supply.
By the way, if I remember, the first post tomorrow: rigs don’t matter. LOL.
Thursday, June 18, 2020
NDIC Scout Tickets Seem To Be Back In Order -- June 18, 2020
... and it appears all the wells that were to have been reported this week, have now been reported by the NDIC. Scout tickets are up to date.
The wells that were yet to be reported were at this post.
I'll update that data later tonight or early tomorrow morning
Fantastic.
ALL IS RIGHT WITH THE WORLD!!
NDIC continues to do a great job.
The wells that were yet to be reported were at this post.
I'll update that data later tonight or early tomorrow morning
Fantastic.
ALL IS RIGHT WITH THE WORLD!!
NDIC continues to do a great job.
Closer Look At The Incredible MRO Nokelby USA Well -- The MRO 2A-D-JP-N Pad -- June 18, 2020
Memo to self: send note to Art Berman.
The well:
The five wells on that pad:
Five wells to the west:
The well:
- 36847, drl/A, MRO, Nokelby USA 34-21H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 174K 4/20;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 4-2020 | 30 | 40195 | 40215 | 22127 | 54880 | 0 | 52446 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2020 | 29 | 59964 | 60114 | 36983 | 63138 | 0 | 59639 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2020 | 26 | 74064 | 73489 | 74464 | 69761 | 0 | 65466 |
The five wells on that pad:
- 36844, see production below; Akko USA,
- 36845, see production below; Aslak USA,
- 17966, see below; Jerry Pennington USA,
- 36846, see production below; Donaason USA,
- 36847, see production below; Nokelby USA
- 17966, 358, MRO, Jerry Pennington US 34-21H, Reunion Bay, t6/09; cum 436K 4/20; offline 9/19; back on line 3/20; huge jump in production 7/14;
- 36844:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 4-2020 | 30 | 32920 | 33011 | 18918 | 44745 | 0 | 42758 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2020 | 31 | 59766 | 59687 | 42645 | 71387 | 0 | 67879 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2020 | 28 | 44239 | 44745 | 36747 | 45776 | 0 | 43195 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2020 | 20 | 51248 | 50398 | 54585 | 53043 | 0 | 50032 |
- 36845:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 4-2020 | 30 | 25533 | 25444 | 34753 | 30382 | 0 | 28860 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2020 | 31 | 23658 | 23694 | 39529 | 27463 | 0 | 26075 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2020 | 27 | 26255 | 26477 | 48714 | 26886 | 0 | 25356 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2020 | 16 | 25668 | 25242 | 86875 | 24423 | 0 | 22922 |
- 36846:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 4-2020 | 30 | 31476 | 31377 | 28990 | 38175 | 0 | 36291 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2020 | 31 | 30784 | 30847 | 41228 | 36362 | 0 | 34553 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2020 | 28 | 36229 | 36150 | 72697 | 34802 | 0 | 32697 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2020 | 6 | 12173 | 11971 | 35766 | 10686 | 0 | 9974 |
Five wells to the west:
- 34600,
- 34601,
- 34599,
- 34602,
- 34598,
- 35424,
- 20530, IA/1,792, MRO, Ella USA 11-16H, Reunion Bay, t10/11; cum 376K 12/19; off line 12/19; remains off line 4/20;
- 36798,
Whiting With Three New Permits; MRO Reports A DUC With 174K In Less Than 3 Months -- June 18, 2020
Active rigs:
Three new permits, #37651 - #37653, inclusive --
| $39.04 | 6/18/2020 | 06/18/2019 | 06/18/2018 | 06/18/2017 | 06/18/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 12 | 62 | 64 | 57 | 28 |
Three new permits, #37651 - #37653, inclusive --
- Operator: Whiting
- Field: Foreman Butte (McKenzie)
- Comments:
- Whiting has permits for three Link 44 wells in SESE 10-150-102, Foreman Butte, all 370' FSL and all about 1100' FEL
- 36276, Lemur,
- 36277, Gazelle,
- 36279, Aardwolf,
- 36280, Meerkat,
- 36282, Warthog,
- 36283, Zebara
- 36847, drl/A, MRO, Nokelby USA 34-21H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 174K 4/20; see production data below the fold; see this post;
- 35034, SI/A, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9H, Heart Butte, t--; cum 52K 4/20; see production data below the fold;
- 35032, SI/A, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9G, Heart Butte, t--; cum 40K 4/20; see production data below the fold;
**********************************
Production Profile For DUCs Reported Above
- 35032:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 4-2020 | 30 | 5894 | 5918 | 32606 | 4140 | 3984 | 136 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2020 | 31 | 6762 | 6808 | 38958 | 4593 | 4573 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2020 | 29 | 8329 | 8266 | 38220 | 5269 | 5245 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2020 | 26 | 5000 | 5115 | 24002 | 2889 | 1637 | 1232 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2019 | 28 | 14033 | 13779 | 49903 | 7242 | 5743 | 1468 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2019 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2019 | 2 | 449 | 266 | 3062 | 379 | 0 | 379 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 35034:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 4-2020 | 28 | 7768 | 7824 | 30145 | 5278 | 5079 | 173 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2020 | 31 | 9950 | 9961 | 38626 | 6714 | 6685 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2020 | 29 | 9905 | 9837 | 35528 | 6290 | 6261 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2020 | 22 | 6243 | 6328 | 21072 | 3861 | 2187 | 1647 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2019 | 31 | 14242 | 14056 | 42545 | 7569 | 6002 | 1534 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2019 | 4 | 2955 | 3352 | 8205 | 1245 | 1238 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2019 | 3 | 1153 | 684 | 3431 | 573 | 0 | 573 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 36847, 74K over 26 days extrapolates to 85,458 bbls over a 30-day month:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 4-2020 | 30 | 40195 | 40215 | 22127 | 54880 | 0 | 52446 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2020 | 29 | 59964 | 60114 | 36983 | 63138 | 0 | 59639 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2020 | 26 | 74064 | 73489 | 74464 | 69761 | 0 | 65466 |
California Reminder: If You Own An Old Truck, You Will Need To Replace That Engine This Year To Get It Registered -- June 18, 2020
The new regulations, passed back in 2018, take effect this year, 2020.
To be clear, we're only talking "commercial carriers" and heavy trucks, trucks weighing more than 26,000 pounds:
Link here.
And I believe this only affects "domiciled," registered vehicles in California. I assume trucks coming up from Mexico are exempt. But I don't know.
To be clear, we're only talking "commercial carriers" and heavy trucks, trucks weighing more than 26,000 pounds:
Link here.
For older vehicles, CARB says they must be either replaced with a 2011 or newer vehicle or repowered with a 2010 or newer engine.
Under these regulations, truckers must meet the following compliance schedule for vehicles weighing more than 26,000 pounds:
CARB adds, however, that the Truck and Bus Regulation is already in effect, and the Board can place a DMV regulation block on vehicles now, before the final compliance dates, if they don’t meet current air quality regulations. The state of California is enforcing all diesel regulations in preparation for 2020, CARB says.
- 2000 and older trucks must comply by Jan. 1, 2020
- 2001-2005 must comply by Jan. 1, 2021
- 2006-2007 must comply by Jan. 1, 2022
- 2008-2010 must comply by Jan. 1, 2023
Vehicles weighing between 14,000 pounds and 26,000 pounds are also subject to the regulations, and must meet the following compliance schedule:Don't worry: SUVs and even the Ford F-550 are well below these limits.
- 2004 and older must comply by Jan. 1, 2020
- 2005-2007 must comply by Jan. 1, 2021
- 2008-2010 must comply by Jan. 1, 2023
And I believe this only affects "domiciled," registered vehicles in California. I assume trucks coming up from Mexico are exempt. But I don't know.
Fast And Furious -- Tesla Sales Plunge; Swedish Deaths Surge -- June 18, 2020
News stories that deserve another look. Links below the fold.
Tesla, link here. Also linked at WSJ.
Tucker Carlson: link here.
Sweden: incredibly good interactive graphic at this link. You can compare the countries you want to compare. Unfortunately still not "per capita" data which makes the data somewhat meaningless, and completely meaningless when comparing countries with vastly different populations. Article here.
Social distancing doesn’t work: link here. Of course, it doesn't. If masks worked and staying six feet from folks worked, we would have nothing to fear from polio, smallpox, or pneumonic plague.
Kroger: expects to top 2020 guidance; posts almost 60% growth in 1Q20 profit -- Americans stockpiled enough toilet paper, hand sanitizer, disinfectant to last through 2040. Link here.
Jobless numbers, link here:
Any doubt the Swedish Covid-19 meme is a myth?
Link here.
- Tesla registrations crash in California; forget the hype, the numbers are
amazingshocking; - Tucker Carlson eclipses the competition; Rachel Maddow making a comeback;
- Sweden: "herd immunity is surprisingly slow";
- Oxford: "no scientific evidence that social distancing works"
- Kroger's sales surge 1Q20
- jobless report in line with expectations
- Ron Paul: Texas is doing just fine, thank you
****************************************
The Links, The Stories
Tesla, link here. Also linked at WSJ.
- 15 million automobile registrations in California
- Tesla registrations in California (new):
- April, 2020: 6,260; 16% decrease y/y;
- May, 2020: 1,447; a 70% decrease y/y;
- EV sales in California:
- 2017: 95,000
- 2018: 153,000
- 153,000 / 12 = 12,750 EV registrations each month back in 2018 in California
- in May, 2020, California: 1,447 Tesla registrations
Tucker Carlson: link here.
Sweden: incredibly good interactive graphic at this link. You can compare the countries you want to compare. Unfortunately still not "per capita" data which makes the data somewhat meaningless, and completely meaningless when comparing countries with vastly different populations. Article here.
Social distancing doesn’t work: link here. Of course, it doesn't. If masks worked and staying six feet from folks worked, we would have nothing to fear from polio, smallpox, or pneumonic plague.
Kroger: expects to top 2020 guidance; posts almost 60% growth in 1Q20 profit -- Americans stockpiled enough toilet paper, hand sanitizer, disinfectant to last through 2040. Link here.
Jobless numbers, link here:
- prior: 1.542 million
- revised: 1.566 million
- forecast consensus: 1.220K
- actual: 1.508 million
************************************
Sweden
Any doubt the Swedish Covid-19 meme is a myth?
Link here.
Just Like That, NDIC Quit Reporting -- June 16, 2020
Supply overhang not going away any time soon -- Bloomberg.
And the Saudis are "fine" with $30-oil.
From a reader:
Active rigs:
Wells yet to report:
Thursday, June 18, 2020: 43 for the month; 188 for the quarter, 415 for the year:
Fuel demand may be staging a gradual comeback in the world’s biggest economy, but that doesn’t mean the huge supply glut is going away anytime soon.
Gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, according to a report from the Energy Information Administration, reflecting a slight pick-up in demand during the summer driving season with coronavirus-led lockdowns easing in some parts of the U.S. Stubbornly high crude inventories still threaten to put a floor under crude’s rally from historic lows in April.From Moscow Mitch:
And the Saudis are "fine" with $30-oil.
From a reader:
As expected. A lot of the contango oil being delivered to the gulf coast. Domestic production down by 2 million barrels a day in the past 10 weeks, pretty much a linear drop week to week, reflecting the combination of shale well depletion and rig count drop of nearly 80%.
Good information source is this link.https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/crude.php#menuGasoline demand, link here. This is a great graph today. Exactly what I "predicted" a week ago. Woo-hoo. Attaboy.That and 69 cents will get you a copy of senior coffee at McDonald's.
**************************************
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
| $38.28 | 6/18/2020 | 06/18/2019 | 06/18/2018 | 06/18/2017 | 06/18/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 12 | 62 | 64 | 57 | 28 |
Wells yet to report:
Thursday, June 18, 2020: 43 for the month; 188 for the quarter, 415 for the year:
- 36877, drl/TASC, Equinor, Jack Cvancara 19-18 8TFH, Alger, t--; cum --;
- 35667, SI/NC, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 3TFH, Poe, t--; cum 81K 4/20; nice well;
- 36234, A, Whiting, Lidseth 11-1H, Sanish, t--; cum 75K 4/20;
- 36074, drl/drl, BR, CCU Plymouth 44-29MBH, St Demetrius, t--; cum --;
- 37214, drl/drl, CLR, Burian 3-27H1, St Demetrius, t--; cum --;
- 36878, drl/TASC, Equinor, Domaskin 40-31 4TFH, Alger, t--; cum --;
- 36075, drl/A, BR, CCU Zephyr 14-29TFH, Corral Creek, t--; cum --;
- 36879, drl/TASC, Equinor, Jack Cvancara 19-18 XE 1TFH, Alger, t--; cum --;
- 36076, drl/A, BR, CCU Zephyr 14-29MBH, Corral Creek, t--; cum --;
- None.
- 37193, drl/drl, CLR, Wiley 14-25HSL, Pershing, t--; cum --;
- 35959, SI/NC, Whiting, Arndt 14-5-2XH, Sanish, t--; cum 96K 4/20; a nice well;
Since last summer, the Corpus Christi area has emerged as the U.S.’s leading crude export venue. In the first five and a half months of 2020, it accounted for an astounding 45% of the barrels being shipped abroad — astounding because in the same period last year, the Corpus area held less than a 20% share. What is sometimes forgotten, though, is that little Ingleside, TX, located across Corpus Christi Bay from Corpus proper, is the area’s crude-export leader, with the Moda Midstream and Flint Hills Resources terminals responsible for just over half of Greater Corpus’s total export volumes. And, with the new South Texas Gateway Terminal nearing completion, Ingleside’s role will only increase in the coming months. Today, we conclude a series on Gulf Coast export terminals with a look at what has been going on in Ingleside.
Vera Lynn Dead At 103 -- June 18, 2020
Vera Lynn dead at 103.
Vera Lynn, Pink Floyd
Six weeks ago, ahead of the 75th anniversary of VE Day and during the height of the coronavirus pandemic, Dame Vera said simple acts of bravery and sacrifice still define our nation.
A week later, she became the oldest artist to get a top 40 album in the UK, beating her own record when her greatest hits album re-entered the charts at number 30.
From November 7, 2009.
"Alexa, play Vera Lynn."
Six weeks ago, ahead of the 75th anniversary of VE Day and during the height of the coronavirus pandemic, Dame Vera said simple acts of bravery and sacrifice still define our nation.
A week later, she became the oldest artist to get a top 40 album in the UK, beating her own record when her greatest hits album re-entered the charts at number 30.
From November 7, 2009.
"Alexa, play Vera Lynn."