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Tuesday, October 31, 2023

Texas Rangers Lead The Series -- Three Games To One -- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45884SPORTS.

Next game tomorrow night, I believe.

Tonight's score:

  • 11 - 5 at the start of the bottom of the ninth;
  • two runs in the ninth and that was it, 11 - 7

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Halloween


See comments for jackets.

Rambling On Investing -- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45883INV.

Earlier I posted by thoughts about blogging about EVs and renewable energy going forward.

Now, some rambling thoughts about macro-economic data. 

I will continue to follow macro-economics and will occasionally / link macro-economic data, but this past year, I've realized my attitude with regard to macro-economics has changed significantly. Macro-economic data means almost nothing to me -- not to be taken out of context. 

I don't invest in real estate, art, vintage automobiles, 24-year-old Scotch, gold, silver, bonds, -- which pretty much leaves equities. All things being equal, about the only thing that can really affect my personal portfolio now is tax policy -- annual taxes that I pay. Macro-economics affects my portfolio but it affects everyone's portfolio, as does tax policy. I can't do anything about macro-economic data; about the only thing I can affect is my personal taxes.

As you know, I don't time the market and stay fully invested.

I have five buckets of stocks from which I choose -- the various companies might vary a bit and the buckets could change over time. But I have a fairly robust and guaranteed, as much as anything is guaranteed, revenue stream which will go into the market each month.

So, regardless what the macro-economic "charts" show,  I'm still building positions. I will sell if things change, but it takes a lot to get me to sell when cost basis trends toward $0 and dividends keep increasing -- which is true for most of my energy companies.

With regard to macro-investing, even the big banks, fund managers, fiduciaries, life insurance companies, and respected analysts can't agree.

After that group (big banks, fund managers, fiduciaries,life insurance companies, and respected analysts) we move into "folks" with political slants -- ZeroHedge, PowerLine, Breitbart, NY Times editorial board, Washington Post editorial board, etc.

Nobel laureates can't even agree on the cause of inflation, yada, yada, yada. And forecasting GDP is so difficult, they do estimates every other day or every other week, depending when data is released.

Everything I've read suggests Buffett and Munger buy when they see good value and don't really pay attention to macro-economic data -- I'm sure they do, but Buffett has said he doesn't watch macro-economic data, but watches for good value. A lot of their decisions are also affected by tax policy -- and with the huge amount of cash they have, tax policy has a huge impact on what Buffett / Munger do and don't do.

Exhibit A:

Back in my early days of investing, back in the early 1980s I suppose, I started building a position in Steris. Working in the medical field, I saw firsthand how much Steris was being bought by hospitals. But then something changed with macro-economic data. I've long forgotten what but it had nothing to do with Steris the company per se, but, regardless, I sold all my Steris, probably in the late 1990s. 

This is what I sold back in the 1990s or whenever it was:

Apple: Comparing The M3 Laptops With The M2 Laptops -- Scary Fast -- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45882APPLE.

It is impossible to articulate the "jump" from the M2 laptops to the M3 laptops just announced. Maybe this will help.

Again, the M3 laptops are not for "you and me." Their target audience:

  • Hollywood film industry (directors, producers, editors, cinematographers, animators, etc.)
  • biomedical researchers; and,
  • serious gamers and game developers.

My primary laptop, a Macbook Air. If I'm reading this correctly, a "2018" design -- five years old -- and a single core. A single CPU / core. GPUs? I have no idea but probably none, but rather just a graphics card. No unified memory.

Unified memory? Explained here. When you hear Tim Cook say "unified memory," that's codespeak / euphemism for Apple Silicon which has 1000% replaced Intel in Apple computers.

I have an M1 MacBook Air which I bought maybe a year ago when it went on sale for a short period of time. I feel guilty using it because my current Intel-MacBook Air works just fine. 

I have no idea why I'm "saving" the M1 MacBook Air but I just hate to quit using anything that is still perfectly good and meets all my needs.

Anyway, enough of that. Look at the M3 laptops vs the M2 laptops.

The M3 family:


As a reminder, prior to the "M3" announcement, earlier this year it was the M2 chip.

If nothing else, compare the huge jump in "unified memory": 8GB vs 128GB. That explains the audible gasp I heard when the Apple spokesman introduced the M3 MAX.

From CNBC:

  • Apple announced three new chips, all under the broader M3 product banner. The current generation of chips is the M2.
  • There is an entry-level M3, a 40% faster M3 Pro, and a 250% faster M3 Max chip for AI developers and 3D artists.
  • Apple says all M3 chips can get up to 22 hours of battery life on a laptop.
  • The M3 has a 8 core central processing unit and up to a 10 core graphics processing unit.
  • The M3 Pro has a 12 core CPU and an 18 core GPU.
  • The M3 Max has a 16 core CPU and as many as 40 cores on its GPU. Apple says it can be used for developing artificial intelligence software.
  • Apple says that its current-generation GPUs are 1.8 times as fast as the GPUs on the M2 chips.
  • Apple says its CPU cores on the M3 are 15% faster than M2 CPU performance cores for heavy workloads. The M3 processor is 60% faster than its M1 processor, Apple said.
  • The new chips are built on a 3 nanometer process, which is currently the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

From social media after the M3 announcement:

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

Goldilocks Opportunity For Investors — Happy Halloween, 2023

Locator: 45881INV.

From The WSJ.

Cash has rarely been this hot on Wall Street. Financial advisers warn holding too much can burn a hole in your portfolio. 
With markets rocky and cash earning 5% or more, investors have boosted their holdings of money-market funds to a near-record $5.6 trillion, according to the Investment Company Institute. Both individuals and institutional investors are piling in—asset managers now have roughly one-fifth of their portfolios in money-market funds, State Street data show. 
Cash was trash for years on Wall Street, where low interest rates left investors buying every dip, saying there was no alternative to stocks. The prospect of a prolonged period of higher rates has upended that thinking, buffeting both stocks and bonds while increasing the returns offered by some of the safest, shortest-term investments such as money markets. Yet many advisers caution that fees, taxes and inflation all undermine those returns. And one of the biggest costs is opportunity: 
By pouring money into cash, investors miss out on potential gains from holding a broad portfolio of stocks, bonds and other riskier investments. “Money-market funds are a rational place to be for the next six months. But over the long term, taking risks pays you more,” said Wylie Tollette, chief investment officer for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. 
“Keeping any more than a small allocation to cash in your portfolio, for any longer than the short-term, will ultimately cost you thousands or millions of dollars.” Though often treated as akin to a bank account, the funds differ from normal savings accounts and other cash-like investments, such as CDs. They typically lend cash to banks overnight (backed by Treasurys), park it at the Fed or invest in Treasury bills maturing in a few months. Still, they are considered equivalent to cash because investors generally expect to get their money back whenever they ask. To that end, the funds try to maintain a net asset value of $1 a share.

MPC, EPD Report — October 31, 2023

Locator: 45880INV. 

MPC: earnings, strong beat.

EPD: begins four new projects in the Permian. Earnings. Pays 7.6%.

***********************************
Texas: Solar Update
Peter Zeihan

Link here.

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Chattajack

Link here for the route

The back story.

Tennessee River. Paddle boarding, predominately, with some kayaking.

The race: 31 miles. Total distance, 33 miles.

Our daughter's time, this past weekend:



Updating Some Wells Drilled / Completed Back In 4Q21 -- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45879B. 

This well just went over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative:

Saturday, November 20, 2021: 30 for the month, 58 for the quarter, 284 for the year:

  • 38082, conf-->drl/drl, Ovintiv, Rolla 152-97-1-12-5HLW, Westberg, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 15K over first eight days; see this note; see this note; full production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20233071367129611444403444030
BAKKEN7-20233180907989692651987517430
BAKKEN6-20233084938589770358311580530
BAKKEN5-20233192819353861661089608360
BAKKEN4-2023301004710093900163850596023959
BAKKEN3-2023311120911269920271996716640
BAKKEN2-2023281092410699836968157663271548
BAKKEN1-20233112960129791047774265717132252
BAKKEN12-2022281114611110715163867614632128
BAKKEN11-2022301444114422112537450973460780
BAKKEN10-2022311654716632124318570685045390
BAKKEN9-2022301426114161133448926888069941
BAKKEN8-202231221852219115109120769120113356
BAKKEN7-20223123378235371701099483967972686
BAKKEN6-2022302802227797186771156921142741418
BAKKEN5-202231328893315318564109173108209964
BAKKEN4-2022273209632137166528684086699141
BAKKEN3-202231499354976423632123371122822549
BAKKEN2-2022285190752101237751138111138110
BAKKEN1-2022315874658668278991276611276610
BAKKEN12-202131610426101228899119074118877197
BAKKEN11-20218146451416848982723727120117

Thursday, December 30, 2021: 87 for the month, 116 for the quarter, 342 for the year:

  • 36995, conf-->loc/drl-->loc/A/unitized, CLR, LCU Ralph 9-27H1, Long Creek, nice well; t--; cum 132K 8/23;
oolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2023291883018804220482978428104175
BAKKEN7-2023311599715985270803894936959322
BAKKEN6-2023301571215698257702627826163114
BAKKEN5-20233089168976219971618815950237
BAKKEN4-2023251931319271310762842627521904
BAKKEN3-20233128976290075034038723362212501
BAKKEN2-20232824280241944536728599241374461
BAKKEN1-20230000000
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-202232182184329000

Friday, October 29, 2021: 28 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 251 for the year:

  • 37978, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-5, Manitou, HUGE WELL, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 286K 8/21; see this note; cum 266K 8/22; cum 354K 8/23;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20232842814287256071897045144
BAKKEN7-20231936353651454597779650127
BAKKEN6-2023305991599873581471314520193
BAKKEN5-2023315654564281601308812905183
BAKKEN4-2023306558655875301561615392224
BAKKEN3-2023317260726288521639716190207
BAKKEN2-2023286943693980841344113217224
BAKKEN1-2023316827682082771165411433221
BAKKEN12-2022277431744077841162411429195
BAKKEN11-2022278533854249091523915053186
BAKKEN10-202231125941258792052823427949285
BAKKEN9-202230118651186973972369523379316
BAKKEN8-2022311236612346874727862278620
BAKKEN7-202215391040251364827682760
BAKKEN6-20222487738743361320564205640
BAKKEN5-20223197029668760322926229260
BAKKEN4-202226876587718970864486440
BAKKEN3-20223112210122151452218453184530
BAKKEN2-20222812564126451584422767227670
BAKKEN1-20223111748116591652322974229740
BAKKEN12-20213114172140992057819256192560
BAKKEN11-20216217022124332565456540
BAKKEN10-202111579158296318956895680
BAKKEN9-20213020353203461916132419324190
BAKKEN8-2021311931219396229702913328144989
BAKKEN7-20212729953299543068448117458122305
BAKKEN6-20213025835260313669143614352838331
BAKKEN5-202131633356303210594411666210221814444
BAKKEN4-2021253265259528883277656

Tuesday, December 28, 2021: 85 for the month, 114 for the quarter, 340 for the year:

  • 36996, conf-->loc/drl, CLR, LCU Ralph Federal 8-27H, Long Creek, t--; cum 67K 3/23; nice well;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2023292448324473236484447942707267
BAKKEN7-2023312676726723312197561473304642
BAKKEN6-2023271878118866246253516435010153
BAKKEN5-2023313517635192378895593655119816
BAKKEN4-20232732205321173946544523431091413
BAKKEN3-20233138735387594592853094496613432
BAKKEN2-20232627731276333823133220280375182
BAKKEN1-20230000000
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-202234634634689000

Tuesday, November 30, 2021: 42 for the month, 70 for the quarter, 296 for the year:

  • 38268, F/A, CLR, Jensen 8-8HSL, Chminey Butte, t--; cum 198K 7/22; cum 307K 8/23; F;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-202331508051233828164371626428
BAKKEN7-202331504650124238176171747010
BAKKEN6-202330510651024209166911648652
BAKKEN5-202331617361754240197751956963
BAKKEN4-2023306673667747912010919856106
BAKKEN3-2023317009701751091934119087109
BAKKEN2-202328738174125124182461806651
BAKKEN1-2023319495946159991960019331116
BAKKEN12-2022277989804743851834518083134
BAKKEN11-20223010025999861962197320969865
BAKKEN10-20223111603115897268224972226695
BAKKEN9-202230123011230976402226121990135
BAKKEN8-2022311511715150896827308271566
BAKKEN7-20223118133181269761306033040357
BAKKEN6-2022302068920700110252996629556269
BAKKEN5-2022312346423435127432894828622185
BAKKEN4-202229216132163411367245372436042
BAKKEN3-2022312329823292125022458624203233
BAKKEN2-202228213292135212680248572468427
BAKKEN1-202231304933045918408327803253490
BAKKEN12-2021313332833303215763185531365332
BAKKEN11-2021957615671532350444280565

Headline Written By A Robot -- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45878B. 

Link here

Article filled with typographical errors.

Germany In Deep Doo-Doo; No Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today --- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45877B.  

Germany: link here -- let this sink in for a minute -- here at the blog, we've been predicting this for quite some time. This article is by Charles Kennedy -- so you know it's good and it's accurate.

Germany, the European Union’s largest economy, is set to see a significant drop in oil consumption for 2023 as economic output shrinks, crimping demand for industrial fuels.
With only Pakistan on track for a steeper decline worldwide, Germany is poised to lose 90,000 barrels-per-day of oil consumption.
“Oil product demand, which includes biofuels and direct crude burn, will fall by more in Germany than any other OECD country during 2023. Globally, we think only Pakistan will see a steeper annual decline.” -- Source at link.
Germany’s GDP fell slightly in the third-quarter, shrinking 0.1% compared to the previous quarter. At the same time, Germany's Q2 GDP has been revised to indicate 0.1% growth, while previous calculations had put it at 0%. Q1 GDP was also revised higher. Germany’s Q4 2022 GDP was down 0.4%.

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Back to the Bakken

NOG. Link here.

WTI: $83.03.

Wednesday, November 1, 2023: 83 for the month; 83 for the quarter, 653 for the year
34544, conf, MRO, Storedale 11-17TFH,
39597, conf, CLR, Brooks 5-9H,
39202, conf, Murex, PB-Paul Brian 1-12H MB,
39201, conf, Murex, PB-Gunner 1-12H MB,

Tuesday, October 31, 2023: 79 for the month; 79 for the quarter, 649 for the year -- Halloween
None.

RBN Energy: fierce opposition, lack of regulatory framework squeeze CO2 pipeline projects.

When Navigator CO2 Ventures decided to pull the plug on its long-planned Heartland Greenway project, a vast network that would have captured carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from dozens of ethanol producers in the Midwest and Great Plains then piped them hundreds of miles for permanent sequestration, it was a significant setback for the Biden administration’s climate goals. More than that, it showed how large-scale carbon-capture projects face opposition from seemingly all sides and how the lack of a meaningful regulatory framework at the federal level only adds to the industry’s challenges. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the Heartland Greenway cancellation, what it says about the future of similar projects, and what regulatory changes might be needed at the federal level to make large-scale carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) a reality. 

Ethanol plants are an obvious choice for carbon capture, given that the CO2 resulting from ethanol fermentation is highly concentrated, which makes capturing it more efficient (and less expensive) compared to many other industrial processes. That was the appeal of the Heartland Greenway project (dashed green line in Figure 1 below), which we first wrote about back in August 2021. One of three projects aimed at capturing emissions from ethanol production, it was ambitious in scope. It would have captured and permanently sequestered CO2 from a diverse group of industrial customers in five states: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota. (Iowa is the top U.S. producer of ethanol, followed by Nebraska, Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana and South Dakota.) The project would have helped dozens of ethanol plants finance and construct their CO₂ capture equipment; transported the captured CO₂ over a newly built, 1,300-mile-plus pipeline network; and permanently sequestered up to 15 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa) of CO2 at a series of Class VI wells in south-central Illinois (gray oval to bottom-right of Figure 1).

Canceled and Planned Greenfield CO2 Pipeline Projects

Figure 1. Canceled and Planned Greenfield CO2 Pipeline Projects. Source: RBN 

 Much, much more at the link.

Yes, I Would Call This Transitory -- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45876ECON.  

Link here

My hunch: the identical chart for used cars.

It was certainly true for eggs.

Foreign Exchange Reserves -- Russia, Saudi Arabia -- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45874SAUDI. 

Link here

Meanwhile, the US economy surged 4.9% in 3Q23.

And, in Russia, link here:

Bidenomics: The WSJ -- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45873ECON.

Link here.

This is probably where some / many / most of my readers reside:

I had a much better "heading" for this blog but my optimism seems to irritate some / many / most of my readers, so I will simply call it "Bidenomics: The WSJ."

From the linked article:

Last week the Federal Reserve revealed that last year the average net worth of American families topped $1 million for the first time, surging 42% from $749,000 in 2019.

Of course, that average is skewed by a small number of billionaires and multimillionaires. Inflation meant real wealth didn’t increase as much. And pandemic-era stimulus boosted asset values, perhaps beyond their fundamental values.

Yet it would be a mistake to therefore conclude that wealth gains are purely a phenomenon of the top 1% and flattered by inflation and asset bubbles.

First, even after inflation, real average wealth was up 23%, according to the Fed’s Survey of Consumer Finances, conducted every three years. Second, while the level of median wealth was much lower than the average, it actually rose more than the average between 2019 and 2022—by 37%, adjusted for inflation—to $193,000. That means wealth inequality actually narrowed.

Third, and perhaps most noteworthy, there really are a lot of true millionaires. About 16 million American families—just over 12%—have wealth exceeding $1 million, up from 9.8 million families in 2019. Nearly eight million families are multimillionaires, i.e., their wealth exceeds $2 million, up from 4.7 million.

And the article continues:

The graphic:

Most WSJ articles receive no comments or a very few. This article has 1,109 comments so far. 

This comment was not atypical:

For some investors, it's been a "Goldilocks" economy.

And then there's this:


Anyone remember this book, published in 2010?


And then this, just popped up over at twitter: