Locator: 48578PERSINV.
So much for that "magnificent 7" being "the" market. I don't see it. Technology (XLK) vs Industrials (XLI) over the past full year:
Exhibit A: CAT.
Market cap:
- AAPL (#1): $3.52 trillion
- NVDA (#2): $3.39 trillion
At the close: records, records, records --
- NVDA closes at a new high
- Dow: a new record; above 43,000 for the first time
- S&P 500: a new record; trending toward 5,900
- QCOM: up almost 5%
- still volatile; VIX at 20
There are several strong tailwinds for investors:
- inter-generational wealth transfer; this is short-term, medium-term, and long-term; link here.
- the driver no one ever mentions: RMDs
- one might ask the question: why do we not see any RMD marketing?
- the fourth industrial revolution: long-term -- the revolution has just begun!
- spin-offs from the AI revolution: short-term
- think US space program, particularly computer technology and rocket propellants
- will positively affect agriculture sector -- precise planting, weeding, fertilizing, harvesting
- huge moats: if you thought regional railroads had/have quasi-monopolies, it's even "worse" for AI companies
- exhibit A: quick -- name four GPU foundries (not designers, but fab companies)
- exhibit B: quick -- name two companies that make EUV lithography machines
- a Trumpian shut-down of government due to an infectious disease -- never again
- retailers learned
- but this is even bigger than a Trumpian shut-down: retailers are learning about risks
- just-in-time ordering
- single-site source
- exhibit A: Belk
- effect of influencers: short-term and of increasing importance
- this includes celebrity CEOs: Jamie Dimon, Jensen Huang, Elon Musk
- exhibit A: quick -- name the CEOs of Ford, Starbucks, Intel
- migration: within the US, inter-regional; globally, to the US
- within the US: from Midwest to southeast US
- within the US: from Florida and California to Texas
- e-commerce: US consumer change in buying patterns
- exhibit A: Walmart. In the grocery section of our local Walmart yesterday, a Sunday, there seemed to be more Walmart employees stocking on-line basket orders than "actual" in-store customers.
- the retail pie is not a zero-sum game.
- energy: globally, the US has won
- has won on accessibility; availability; dispatchable; cost.
- exhibit A: the US has checked the "all-of-the-above" box: nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, oil
- no other region or country can say the same
- exhibit A: quick -- name three regions in the world that have "unlimited" oil / natural gas -- I can name three, but the third hardly counts;
- regional conflicts: won't occur on US soil:
- compare with Europe, Ukraine, Koreas, China-Taiwan
- but US military-industrial complex as good as ever
- demographics:
- immigration a huge positive for US -- documented and un-documented
- compare with Japan: no immigration
Screenshots for stories above:
Belk, it's not even Halloween yet:
The retail pie not a zero-sum game:
Moats: which begs the question -- why has the EU not threatened to break up ASML? It has a monopoly.
Agriculture fertilizing, the four R's:
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APPLE
APPLE: one step closer to subscription-model annual update! Whoo-hoo! Subscription-model? You say? Yes, folks will be able to subscribe at x-dollars per month to get annual upgrade to new phone with trade-in of the previous year's model. I figure less than $50 / month will buy you a new high-end phone each year.
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