Personal Investing -- Rambling -- October 14, 2024

Locator: 48578PERSINV.

So much for that "magnificent 7" being "the" market. I don't see it. Technology (XLK)  vs Industrials (XLI) over the past full year:

Exhibit A: CAT. 

Market cap:

• AAPL (#1): $3.52 trillion
• NVDA (#2): $3.39 trillion

At the close: records, records, records --

• NVDA closes at a new high
• Dow: a new record; above 43,000 for the first time
• S&P 500: a new record; trending toward 5,900
• QCOM: up almost 5%
• still volatile; VIX at 20
  

There are several strong tailwinds for investors:

• inter-generational wealth transfer; this is short-term, medium-term, and long-term; link here.
  
• the driver no one ever mentions: RMDs
• one might ask the question: why do we not see any RMD marketing?
• the fourth industrial revolution: long-term -- the revolution has just begun!
  
• spin-offs from the AI revolution: short-term
• think US space program, particularly computer technology and rocket propellants 
  
• will positively affect agriculture sector -- precise planting, weeding, fertilizing, harvesting
  
• huge moats: if you thought regional railroads had/have quasi-monopolies, it's even "worse" for AI companies
• exhibit A: quick -- name four GPU foundries (not designers, but fab companies)
• exhibit B: quick -- name two companies that make EUV lithography machines
  
• a Trumpian shut-down of government due to an infectious disease -- never again
• retailers learned
• but this is even bigger than a Trumpian shut-down: retailers are learning about risks
• just-in-time ordering
• single-site source
  
• exhibit A: Belk
• effect of influencers: short-term and of increasing importance
• this includes celebrity CEOs: Jamie Dimon, Jensen Huang, Elon Musk
  
• exhibit A: quick -- name the CEOs of Ford, Starbucks, Intel
  
• migration: within the US, inter-regional; globally, to the US
  
• within the US: from Midwest to southeast US
• within the US: from Florida and California to Texas
• e-commerce: US consumer change in buying patterns
• exhibit A: Walmart. In the grocery section of our local Walmart yesterday, a Sunday, there seemed to be more Walmart employees stocking on-line basket orders than "actual" in-store customers.
• the retail pie is not a zero-sum game.
  
• energy: globally, the US has won 
• has won on accessibility; availability; dispatchable; cost.
  
• exhibit A: the US has checked the "all-of-the-above" box: nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, oil
• no other region or country can say the same 
• exhibit A: quick -- name three regions in the world that have "unlimited" oil / natural gas -- I can name three, but the third hardly counts;
  
• regional conflicts: won't occur on US soil:
• compare with Europe, Ukraine, Koreas, China-Taiwan
• but US military-industrial complex as good as ever
  
• demographics:
• immigration a huge positive for US -- documented and un-documented
  
• compare with Japan: no immigration

Screenshots for stories above:

Belk, it's not even Halloween yet:

The retail pie not a zero-sum game:

Moats: which begs the question -- why has the EU not threatened to break up ASML? It has a monopoly.

Agriculture fertilizing, the four R's:

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APPLE

APPLE: one step closer to subscription-model annual update! Whoo-hoo! Subscription-model? You say? Yes, folks will be able to subscribe at x-dollars per month to get annual upgrade to new phone with trade-in of the previous year's model. I figure less than $50 / month will buy you a new high-end phone each year.