Locator: 50091IRAN.
Updates
Day 3 -- March 2, 2026:
Day 2 -- March 1, 2026:
- from a military point of view, the biggest US concern is adequate land-based bombers
- so far only the B-2 has been involved
- the British refusing US to use Diego Garcia is major detriment to US war-fighting capabilities -- Trump won't take this well -- our closest ally (?) (Britain) denying use of Diego Garcia;
- we all know how this war will play out; no access to Diego Garcia will simply drag the war out but won't alter outcome
- could US base B-52s out of Israel; Saudi Arabia?
- this is not air superiority; this is air dominance -- huge difference;
- Israel says it has complete freedom of the airspace
- havoc in the Strait of Hormuz; Iran's neighbors won't appreciate this
- Iran has become a pariah among its Mideast neighbors
- WTI: up almost 5%; up $3.24; trading at $70;
- we're starting to hear from Trump himself his end-game
- Iran's navy is to be destroyed according to Trump; allies have already taken out Iran's navy headquarters; several Iranian ships have been sunk;
- suffice to say: Iran's navy is neutralized
- as long as Iran doesn't have a new leader and / or hasn't formed a new government, Trump and Netanyahu have no one with whom to negotiate -- by Friday, March 6, 2026, Iran will announce new leadership -- whether that leadership is seen as legitimate or not is another question.
- the two allies (Trump and Netanyahu) are joined at the hip
- Trump has already prepared the US for a four-week war;
- War Powers Act: purely theatrics and a great fund-raising opportunity for both parties.
March 1, 2026: Tehran -- target-rich environment against military with no air defense;
- one assumes complete loss of Iranian military command and control;
- one assume Iranian military units working without coordination
- Sunday, today, should provide significant update on Iran's capabilities
- Iran said Sunday would be huge counter-attack and revenge for Khamenei's death
- it's now well into Sunday, and no headlines suggesting Iran's counter-attack is amounting to much (~ 1:00 p.m. local time Tehran)
Later, 7:35 p.m. CT: imagine how this skirmish would be going if Iran had nuclear weapons.
Later, 7:33 p.m. CT: time to dust off the Abraham Accords.
Later, 6:47 p.m. CT: doesn't it feel like this war is already over? Time for Israel to finish it off. US to start drawing down. Truly amazing. It started earlier this morning and it's already over? It will be interesting if missiles stop launching by Monday. Let the anti-Trumps start debating the War Powers Act.
Later, 4:53 p.m. CT: this was well done. Trump did not kill Khamenei. That was 100% Netanyahu.
Later, 3:20 p.m. CT: there are reports that the attack that killed Ali Khamenei also killed upwards of 40 (maybe more) other senior leaders. If accurate, it appears that the decision for the H-Hour to be at daybreak was brilliant.
Later, 3:00 p.m. CT: my hunch is that there will be "US boots on the ground."
Not necessarily US military. But the US will demand that a US-led "UN-like" team will have full access to all of Iran: military sites; uranium-enrichment sites; universities; day-care centers, and Somali Learing Centers, if any. He could very likely pattern "what comes next" after the Gaza Board of Peace, led by Saudi Arabia or the UAE. He's not going to let the IRGC to return in some other form. Maybe Marco Rubio can take over as interim leader of Iran.
Later, 2:00 p.m. CT: Iranian leadership has been eliminated. This "skirmish" will be over before US Congress has opportunity to start debate on "war powers."
a) first thing that happens: internal skirmish who takes over -- remember our own "I'm in charge here." -- March 30, 1981 -- Reagan assassination attempt -- "I'm in charge here," Alexander Haig. "No, you're not."
b) problem: with whom does Israel and / or the US negotiate? Until someone credible comes forward with enough gravitas to take charge, there is no one with whom to negotiate -- allows a more free-willing Israel; Hegseth will want to move with all Godspeed; Trump will want to remain constrained.
Later, 10:01 a.m. CT: strikes will last "several" days.
- most important metric: tracking number of Iranian missile strikes;
- one would expect a marked crescendo lasting two days and then a precipitous decrescendo starting on day three or four
Original Post
March 28, 2026 -- Day 1
Joint Israeli-American Operation
- Operation Epic Fury
- Operation Roaring Lion
Goal:
- Operation Roaring Lion: regime change
- Operation Epic Fury: more nuanced
Israel launches first, followed closely by US, as Iran responds with missiles targeted across the Mideast.
Timing:
- D-Day: Saturday, February 28, 2026
- H-Hour: 0100 hrs ET; ~ 0900 hrs Tehran
- Tehran is currently 8.5 hours / 7.5 hours ahead of Washington, DC; time time occurs in March.
President to address nation Saturday morning
Surprising H-Hour: daylight
- to catch Iran off-guard; expecting operation to begin at night
Immediate targets:
- Iran's civilian leadership including Khameini's Palace
- some oil facilities
- Iran's air defense
Opening skirmish: very restrained
- most notable: civilian leadership targeted
- biggest strategic mistake: Iran launching missiles into several Mideast countries
- London - Washington discussing Diego Garcia
- controlled by London; currently denies US access to Diego Garcia for Operation Epic Fury
- Diego Garcia talks may be most important non-kinetic event to follow
