Monday, October 26, 2020

Chinese Flu Pandemic Update -- North Dakota -- October 26, 2020

Color coding for this map needs to be updated, look at the legend for active cases:

  • current:
    • 1 - 4 (is this category even needed any more?)
    • 5 - 9 (ditto)
    • 10 - 29 (ridiculous)
  • and then look at this spread:
    • 30 - 99 (why not 1 - 100?)
  • and then this:
    • 100 - 499 (are you kidding?)
    • 500+
  • it seems almost anything would be better, including:
    • 1 - 99
    • 100 - 199
    • 200 - 299
    • 300 - 399
    • 400-  499
    • 500 - 599
    • 600+

And why is it not "per capita"?

Deaths:

  • four core Bakken counties: 31
  • Cass (Fargo): 84
  • Burleigh (Bismarck): 76
  • Morton (Mandan): 50
  • Ward (Minot): 35
  • Stark (Dickinson): 34
  • and then look at Grand Forks with 18 -- lowest per capita in the state among the "big" counties

Nationwide, deaths/one million population:

  • North Dakota, #21 (the lower the number the worse)
  • South Dakota, #31 (much, much better than North Dakota)

Per capita, population of North Dakota: 775,000

  • total positive / 775,000 = 4.9%
  • herd immunity: 70%
    • for herd immunity: a long way to go
  • deaths per positive case: 461 / 38,241 = 1.2%
  • chance of being hospitalized: 1,437 / 38,241 = 3.8%
  • if you test positive, the likelihood you will not be hospitalized: 96% chance

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