The Market, Energy, And Political News, T+53 -- December 28, 2018

Holiday sales: see link --

• last year (2017)
• a record $598 billion dollars — up $33 billion from last year; up 6%
• this year (2018)
• a record $850 billion dollars — up $252 billion from last year; up 42%. 

Holiday travel? records set. Low gasoline prices.

Disconnect: it was my understanding that gold and oil were inflation-hedge investments. Gold is trading at $1,200  -- well off it's recent high of $1,800 and trending lower. And oil? Well, we all know that story. But Fed is increasing rates.

Dems:

• $5 billion: too expensive to complete US border wall
• $10 billion: US sends Mexico to build their southern wall 

US deficit soars.

Bakken economy:

• in North Dakota, only Fargo reported higher taxable sales and purchases than Williston in 3Q18
• Williston reports higher taxable sales and purchases than Bismarck

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US Producers: Delivering a One-Two Punch To OPEC

From Bloomberg. The one-two pucnh?

• one: more oil; way more oil
• two: better oil; way better oil

The U.S. oil industry is delivering a one-two punch to Middle East producers already reeling from a collapse in prices.

A tussle is playing out in the market for so-called light oils, which have a lower sulfur content and are less dense than heavier varieties. When processed, these grades typically yield a higher amount of fuels like gasoline and naphtha. And now, American supplies are weighing on prices for such crudes as well as fuels made from them.

Light oil pumped in U.S. shale fields is increasingly making its way to Asia, undercutting sales by the likes of Saudi Arabia. Additionally, America is exporting a record amount of refined fuel, contributing to a global glut in gasoline and naphtha. That’s hurting some of the biggest members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as they prepare to curb crude output in a bid to stabilize the market.

Middle East producers -- still the dominant suppliers to Asia -- are being forced to tackle American crude competition by lowering their oil pricing to defend their market share. The refiners, meanwhile, are contending with booming U.S. fuel shipments dragging down their returns from making processed products.

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Miscellaneous

Out-produce:

• It's being reported that by 2025 the US will produce more than production from Russia and Saudi Arabia combined.

Canadian oil sands, 2019: down, but not out.