Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Sharp Reversal: US NG Fill Rate -- And Winter Has Just Begun; Huge Natural Gas Draw Reported -- November 21, 2018 -- 134 BCF Withdrawal Vs Historic Average Of 24 BCF

Updates

Later, 6:44 p.m.: how big was this draw reported today? A reader who follows this very, very closely sent this (see first comment):
This seems to be the earliest triple-digit withdraw on record, after a quick scan of the modern data back to 2010. 
In fact, some years didn't even see a triple digit withdrawal for the whole month of November. Average withdrawal for this week in November is 24 BCF. Compare that with the withdrawal this week, 2018: 134 Bcf.
There was 3,789 Bcf in storage as of November 15 2013 (ie, the November before the 2014 winter)  
Later, 6:40 p.m.: New England is hanging in there just fine. See this link. Tomorrow should be fine -- a holiday and then Friday and the weekend should be fine. Next real test: next Monday and next week.
 Original Post

From November 9, 2018:
See North American blizzard of 2005.

Today, the actual data from the EIA:

Right on cue: a reader two weeks ago predicted that either last weekend or this past weekend would be the last weekend that we would see a net increase in natural gas storage. It looks like the week before last was the last week this season that we would see a "net increase."

The small print:
  • first week this season, a net decrease
  • a decrease of 134 Bcf from the previous week
  • stocks were 620 Bcf less than last year
  • stocks were 710 Bcf below the five-year average
  • It's hard to read on the graphic, but it appears:
    • in 2014: 3,400 Bcf in storage
    • in 2018: 3,100 Bcf (small print says 3,113 Bcf)
    • 3400-3100 = 300
    • 300 / 3400 = close to 10% below what we saw in the worst winter in recent history (2014)

4 comments:

  1. this seems to be the earliest triple digit withdraw on record, after a quick scan of the modern data back to 2010...in fact, some years didn't even see a triple digit withdrawal for the whole month...average withdrawal for this week in November is 24 BCF...

    there was 3,789 Bcf in storage as of November 15 2013 (ie, the November before the 2014 winter)

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    Replies
    1. I, of course, would have no idea; I have not followed natural gas closely until recently, but your note certainly puts things into perspective. Much appreciated. Could be an interesting winter.

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    2. next week (ie, ending the 23rd) looks to be about 2 degrees warmer nationally (~44 vs ~42 degrees) so the withdrawal shouldn't be as bad...still above average, though, cause the big cities in the Northeast are going to end the period at record lows...

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    3. It will be interesting to see if two to five degrees makes that much difference. Whether is 22 degrees or 27 degrees, it will feel cold.

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