Weekly Energy Tweets And News -- April 14, 2016; Intermittent, Unreliable Energy Pretty Much Comes To A Standstill

Updates

Later, 9:31 p.m. Central Time: early casualty of the end of intermittent, unreliable energy projects.
 

Original Post

 

It looks like intermittent energy pretty much comes to a standstill going forward -- except for niche plays:

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OMG!

Earlier today it was reported that OPEC forcast non-OPEC production falling faster than predicted, from 700,000 bopd to 730,000 bopd or about a 0.03 percent change. LOL. As soon as I read that, I knew that the price of oil rests on the Chinese and the Indian economy. Right on cue, Bloomberg/Rigzone report: China’s crude imports climbed to a record in the first quarter as higher refining margin encouraged refiners to boost purchases.

The world’s biggest energy user increased inbound shipments to 91.1 million metric tons in the first three months of the year, data from the Beijing-based General Administration of Customs showed on Wednesday. That’s equivalent to about 7.34 million barrels a day, 6 percent higher than the previous quarter and 13 percent up from the same period last year, according to Bloomberg calculations. Imports last month fell about 4 percent from February’s record to 7.71 million barrels a day, the third-highest ever.

The nation’s net oil-product exports jumped to 1.3 million tons in March, the highest in three months, Wednesday’s data show. Refiners are importing more oil to take advantage of local retail fuel prices that are frozen when oil trades below $40 a barrel. The margin for major Chinese refineries to process Oman crude was about $16 a barrel in the first quarter, 68 percent higher than last year’s average, according to ICIS China, a Shanghai-based commodity researcher.

“Low oil prices and healthy margins are supporting imports,” Virendra Chauhan, a Singapore-based analyst at industry consultant Energy Aspects Ltd., said in an e-mail. “The strong imports also reflect demand from the teapot refiners.”

China’s total exports in March jumped the most in a year and declines in imports narrowed, adding to evidence of stabilization in the world’s second-biggest economy. The export rebound may suggest China’s economy fared better than expected in the first quarter, with data due Friday expected to show a 6.7 percent expansion for the period.

A total of 27 independent refiners, known as teapots, have obtained or applied for crude-import quotas, totaling 89.5 million tons as of the end of February, Zhang Liucheng, chairman of China Teapot Alliance, said on March 31.

By the way, let's look at the OPEC forecast for non-OPEC crude oil production -- see if you can spot the decline:

The other weekly energy tweets:

• US crude oil inventories rose 6.6 million bbls last week to an estimated 537 bbls. It should be noted that storage capacity has been increasing this year, and we are in a state of contango.
• US crude imports rebounded to 7.9 million b/d last week after slumping to 7.3 million the week before
• US gasoline stocks adjusted for implied consumption at 25.5 days demand, same as in 2015
• implied US gasoline consumption remains high averaging 9.4 million b/d over last 4 weeks (+500,000 b/d over 2015)

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Compare and Contrast

Compare the top graph with the second graph below: