Meandering On A Thursday Morning -- April 14, 2016

I remain inappropriately optimistic about .... well, about everything .... especially the economy.

Having said that, there certainly seems to be a disconnect between the data and the market. The stock market continues to have incredibly good days. I think the market was up 187 points yesterday, nearing the 18,000 mark. Is that correct?

Note: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel or relationship plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. 

As I mentioned earlier, the market seems completely disconnected from reality. The most recent GDP Now forecast continues to suggest a very, very poor 1Q16 economy:

Latest forecast: 0.3 percent — April 13, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.3 percent on April 13, up from 0.1 percent on April 8. After this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 1.6 percent to 1.8 percent.

Speaking of disconnects, later today, we'll see the weekly jobs report. That's always a hoot.

From the headlines:

• JPMorgan's Dimon: "the economy is going strong."
• Russia's Putin: "Russian economy is on the road to recovery"

I assume one of the reasons for the market's recent moves is because oil companies and oil services companies beaten down so much this past year are recovering based on better oil prices. I don't know; I haven't looked at individual stocks in the last several weeks, except for ATT out of curiosity.

Speaking of which, it would be hard to beat ATT for someone who simply wanted something with little volatility in their portfolio and paying 5%.

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The NPR Moment

Some years ago, the NPR folks referred to that "NPR moment" when you are listening to NPR on the car radio but have arrived at your destination just as the segment you were listening to was too interesting to leave. So you stopped your car but instead of getting out, you continue to listen to NPR until the story is finished. That's an "NPR moment." Unlike a "Rush Limbaugh" moment when yu finally turn him off when he repeats himself for the umpteenth time in less than 30 minutes.

I almost had an "NPR moment" yesterday -- but I was still driving so it was not a classic "NPR moment." I caught the end of a story on ObamaCare. I thought I was mishearing something -- this was NPR and it seemed "they" were completely dissing ObamaCare.

But my ears were not deceiving me, as they say. Here's the story, first the screen shot:

The bad news: I honestly don't know what the Federal government can do about ObamaCare.

There are two problems for those folks who want to dismantle ObamaCare.

First, ObamaCare has now become a central part of the US healthcare industry; it's like six years old. People are finally starting to get the hang of it. Businesses are finally learning to cope with it (changing hiring practices, changing hours of employment). The healthcare industry is coping with it (United Health, the nation's largest insurer, is "pulling out"). To abruptly end ObamaCare would completely disrupt the status quo. I assume a lot of members of Congress are benefiting from the program.

Second, Americans won't give up the best parts of the program:

• entitled after only 35 hours/week employment
• no pre-existing clause -- which allows for healthy folks (mostly younger folks) to "game the system" and those with significant health care issues not go bankrupt or without care
• children up to age 26 remain on their parents' health care plan (children between the ages of 18 and 26 are getting a "free ride")
• no cap on medical expenses (hospitals and doctors must love this as much as the patients; it's the right thing to do for patients, but hospitals and doctors have no incentive to work with patients to bring bills down)

There are probably other pieces of the program that no one wants to give up but those are the ones that stand out in my mind. I reserve the right to add more if I think of more. Thank you.

Now, back to that screenshot. That conclusion / that study was not commissioned by Fox News / Rush Limbaugh or Ted Cruz / Koch Bros or Bill Maher / Rachel Maddow. This study was a joint effort by NPR and Harvard University's School of Public Health. The latter may be simply the most respected school of public health in the galaxy if not the universe. Okay, I'm wrong. It's ranked #2 by the most respected news outlet in the universe, US News & World Report:

And their conclusion, or at least the conclusion of someone who has actually read the report: NPR and Harvard Say: Obamacare Is a Complete Failure.

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For Amazon Competitors

I have an old, old iPad -- version 2. Actually it's my wife's but she no longer uses it. I turned my version 1 iPad back to Target with their $100 promotion for old iPads a couple of years ago. I keep the old iPad on my bed stand and check the  news just before going to bed, and check the news again when getting up. The software has never been updated, so it doesn't do a lot, but it does what I need.

This morning, I remembered something I wanted to order from Amazon. I had never ordered from Amazon.com using the iPad, so I was curious. It worked seamlessly. Incredibly seamlessly. It worked as well as my MacBook Air. It was incredible. So, I have an iPad that's ancient; the software has never been updated, and the Amazon.com site works perfectly.

Talk about easy to use: one or two clicks and I was on my way.

And that's why Amazon.com is blowing away the competition.

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Notes for the Granddaughters

I continue to read JRR Tolkien, Author of the Century (Tom Shippey), but am gradually coming to an end on Beowulf.

I am just starting to re-read Dan Jones' The War of the Roses: The Fall of the Plantagenets and the Rise of the Tudors. It could be re-sub-titled: how the pool man gave birth to a royal dynasty.

That was a sequel to his book on the Plantagenets which I read a long time ago and probably will re-read after I finish The War of The Roses.

I also am just starting the 2014 anthology -- I guess it's an anthology -- of the sixty columns of NYC Broadway play reviews between 1918 and 1923 by Dorothy Parker. She dropped out of school at age 14 to tend to her dying father (her mother died when Dorothy was 5 years old) before becoming the first (and at the time) the only female drama critic in New York. I bought the book after reading the review at The New York Review of Books and am completely blown away by this incredible book. I will provide some of her quips over the next few weeks. To say the least, she was brilliant.