Wednesday, April 23, 2025

California: Valero Plans To Shut Down Or Significantly Reduce Its Larger Refinery In Northern California By The End Of April, 2026 -- April 23, 2025

Locator: 48491CALIFORNIA.

 Updates

April 26, 2025: WSJ opinion. Waste of ink.

Original Post

Link here

Link here: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-lawmaker-warns-likely-move-blue-state-will-make-gas-prices-skyrocket. You will have to "cut and paste" that link.

 

This is a fascinating story. I will come back to this story later if I have the energy.

To put this in perspective: 

And this:

At best, this will only result in an increase in the price of gasoline in California. My hunch: if necessary, the state of California will allow another operator to come in to operate the refinery.

Critical mass:

The loss of refinery capacity in the state of California is a fascinating one. Social media has no clue.

My not-ready-for-prime-time initial thoughts on the news yesterday that Valero was going to close its large refinery in northern California in early 2026. I sent this to the reader who sent me the link to the story in the first place:

This is an incredibly fascinating story. There’s a phenomenon in math/physics — the phenomenon of critical mass — and we see it in many instances, including nuclear weapons. LOL.
But, for me, the best example is a brain tumor. The brain is encased in a non-expandable skull, unlike the abdomen. An abdominal mass can grow to an unbelievable size and won’t cause any problem simply due to its size. A brain tumor is completely different. It can grow in size to a very limited extent, often resulting in no signs or symptoms whatsoever, before it reaches critical mass and the individual literally goes into a coma, seizes, or dies in a space of hours, without immediate surgical relief of that intracranial pressure. 

Likewise, a significant shortage of gasoline occurring in a very short period of time, in a state already with the highest gasoline prices in the United States, won’t simply result in a gradual increase in price. Early on it will be obvious there’s a shortage of gasoline when service stations don’t receive their usual allotment. It will start with the small independents, first in the rural areas and the quickly in the large cities. One will start to see plastic bags placed on gasoline pump nozzles with "out of order" advisories. At that point, it’s over. Panic will set in. People will keep their gas tanks full, exacerbating the situation. 

All things being equal, if nothing changes between now and the refinery closure I give California one month before it becomes an unimaginable state — and then a national — emergency. 

Gasoline will be rationed and California will be back to gas lines. Focusing on the price of gasoline is the wrong metric. It won’t be price; it will be panic.

I don’t think California has the port facilities necessary to import that much gasoline.

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In Other California News

San Francisco Centre is a ghost town. Link here. Link here.

Price of gasoline in California: link here.

Phillips 66 will cease operations at its refinery in Los Angelese this year. Link here.

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Fortunately Everyone In California Has An EV


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More From California

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