Pages

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

How Many Trillions Of Dollars Have Been Spent On Renewables? -- November 28, 2018

I don't know.

From a social media discussion group:


The link inside this screen shot takes you to the very legitimate Financial Post. Worth archiving.

*************************************
New England

Updates

November 29, 2018: data points for ISO New England --
  • winter peak / summer peak: around 30,000 MW
  • solar / wind provides about 1,000 MW during the winter
  • the sun has set when peak demand hits in the winter
Original Post 

It's hard to find nameplate capacity for wind/solar in ISO New England but it appears to be about 4,000 MW. It was about 3,800 MW at the end of 2017.

I generally see no more than 1,000 MW of electricity coming from wind/solar over at ISO New England. Its low today about 816 MW or 816/4,000 = 20%.

816/3800 = 21.5% which is about what others have told me to expect when it comes to wind/solar.

See this post.

Random Update Of A Whiting Kjos Well In Alger Oil Field -- November 28, 2018

See this post.

Prior to the neighboring frack, 500 bbls/month; after the neighboring frack, 5,697 bbls over 14 days which extrapolates to 12,207 bbls/month. Both of the following wells are short laterals. 

The well of interest:
  • 23566, 845, Whiting, Kjos 14-13H, one section, Alger, t10/12; cum 98K 9/18; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2018145697547015432238802361
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-201821401715011
BAKKEN6-2018305396904055510491
BAKKEN5-2018315434723835590497
BAKKEN4-2018305306513235610502
BAKKEN3-2018316294804406170555
BAKKEN2-2018285856924035630507
BAKKEN1-2018316706924876750613
BAKKEN12-2017317687196377760714
BAKKEN11-2017295094984025310475
BAKKEN10-2017316697274596880626
BAKKEN9-2017306314854116360576
BAKKEN8-2017316607215506670605
BAKKEN7-2017316614714336700610

Now, go back to this neighboring well, which came off the confidential list today:
  • 34700, 552, Whiting, Liebl 31-13-2H, Alger, one section, t9/18; cum 7K 9/18; look at #23566, Kjos 14-13H;

Note: A Reader Suggests The Jump In Active Rigs In North Dakota May Be In Error -- November 28, 2018

NDIC is reporting 66 active rigs, a jump from the previous 62 a couple of days ago. A reader went through the data and suggests there may be an error -- some accidental "double-counting" of a couple of rigs.

Later, by the way, note the rig count in Montana -- see first comment.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+22 -- Wednesday, November, 28, 2018 -- The Dow Surges 600 Points -- MAGA

The Fed must be:
  • listening to the president
  • looking at the market
  • looking at their own portfolios
  • looking at mortgage rates and the housing sector
Best three days for the market since 2016!


WTI Close To $50; Five New Permits -- November 28, 2018

NDIC is reporting 66 active rigs, a jump from the previous 62 a couple of days ago. A reader went through the data and suggests there may be an error -- some accidental "double-counting" of a couple of rigs. 

Active rigs:

$50.22 oh-oh11/28/201811/28/201711/28/201611/28/201511/28/2014
Active Rigs66553764184

Five new permits:
  • Operators: Kraken Operating
  • Fields: Lone Tree Lake (Williams)
  • Comments: Kraken has permits for a 5-well Rixey pad in 33-157-99; sited in SESE section 33, these wells will run north, opposite and parallel to three producing well; see graphic.
Eleven permits renewed:
  • CLR (5): two Charlotte permits; one each -- Akron, Chicago, and Thorvald -- all in McKenzie County except for Thorvald which is in Dunn County
  • Newfield (3): three Sorenson Federal permits in McKenzie County
  • Oasis: one Fraser Federal permit in Williams County
  • BR: one Abercrombie permit in McKenzie County
  • XTO: one Rough Federal permit in McKenzie County
Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 33906, 842, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-9A-15-1HS, Charlson, t10/18; cum --
  • 34700, 552, Whiting, Liebl 31-13-2H, Alger, t9/18; cum 7K 9/18; look at #23566, Kjos 14-13H; see this post;
  • 34699, 1,078, Whiting, Meiers 44-25-2H, Robinson Lake, t9/18; cum 13K 9/18;
  • 34701, 898, Whiting, Stettner 14-13TFH, Alger, t9/18; cum 3K after 16 days;
  • 30547, 348, BR, Merton 41-15TFH ULW, Croff, t10/18; cum --; the Merton wells are tracked here;
    ****************************************




    WTI Slumps (Again) -- Now, Just 22 Cents Above $50/Bbl -- November 28, 2018; Peak Oil? Probably Not

    Apparently it took a couple of hours to sink in, the weekly data released earlier today, but now traders have had a chance to look at this data:
    Initially, the price of WTI didn't show much change, but now, near the close of the trading day, WTI is down 2.6%; down $1.34; and, now just 22 cents above $50/bbl.

    We could see WTI going below $50 by the end of the week. From there ... ?

    Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

    Or maybe the slump in WTI was due to yet another report of more oil. Peak oil? I don't think so.  From Platts:
    • Pemex (Mexico) doubles Ixachi oil and gas reserves to 750 million boe
    • production to peak at 80,000 beopd
    • development cast estimated at $1.5 billion
    When I first saw the headline that Pemex "doubles" its reserves at Ixachi, I was excited. Then I saw the numbers: max production at 80,000 boepd and, reserves increased to 750 million boe. Not exciting.

    The Bakken currently produces about 80,000 boepd in 90 minutes. Bakken reserves: for those with exuberant "feelings" about the Bakken, as much as 50 billion boe, maybe more.

    750 million / 50 billion = 1.5%. And that's just the Bakken.

    I wonder if we should start measuring pools of oil in "Permians." For example, the Bakken would be estimated to be 0.25 Permians. The Ixahi reserves would be 0.00375 Permians. At 268 billion bbls (wiki), Saudi Arabia's reserves would be 1.34 Permians. I would like to use the Bakken as the "unit of measure" for any number of reasons, but I would be voted off the island -- "everyone" would vote for the "Permian."

    And then the day we have a massive carbon tax and no one can afford oil at all -- sort of like the yellow vests in France -- we can take oil off the "Permian standard."

    ******************************
    Update

    One day later, November 29, 2018, this update from Bloomberg regarding the Mexico story above:
    Today, this story from Bloomberg: Pemex has more than tripled its estimated reserves in its Ixachi field. Data points:
    • the onshore field in Veracruz is now estimated to contain 1.3 billion boe in proven, probably and possible ("3P") reserves
    • the story sticks with max production at 80,000 bopd (see Platts above, and my comments
    • the field is currently producing about 2,000 bpd of condensate; hopes to get to 5,000 bpd of condensate by end of 2019
    • development costs for Ixachi: $1.47 billion for 40 wells = I've done the math three times -- see if you get a different number -- $1.47 billion for 40 wells = $36,750,000 / well 
    • this is Mexico's most important onshore field in 25 years, Pemex says -- if so, Mexico is in a heap of trouble .. 2,000 bbls of condensate a day and that gets them excited
    • Mexico currently produces about 1.8 million bopd, down from a recent target of 1.95 million bopd
    ****************************************
    The Christmas Page

    Baby, Please Come Home, Darlene Love

    Re-Posting: I Wish I Had Said That -- The "Economically Viable" Bakken Footprint Grows Bigger -- November 28, 2018

    Re-posting from this morning:

    New York Movers And Shakers Appear Envious

    Updates

    Later, 3:32 p.m. CT: see first two comments [at the link above] regarding how much better the Bakken wells have become over the years. Now this very observant comment from another reader:
    The subtle importance of Larne's comment ought not to be underestimated as it pertains to the Bakken, other shale plays, and future potential shale targets. 
    To now drill WAY faster, with more precision, and MUCH higher recovery factor (20%+ according to some operators) will vastly expand the US productive acreage.

    I strongly suspect that Helms et al want an updated USGS assessment for the Bakken as the current recovery rate of OOIP is now 3 to 5 times higher than earlier when the USGS projected 7+ billion barrels oil Technically Recoverable Resource (TRR).
     Original Post

    Speculators buying up mineral rights in eastern Montana for pennies. The article is behind a New York Times paywall. It's been my experience that if these "efforts" pay off, it is the grandchildren that benefit. The vast majority of these mineral acres will never be developed. But they are great for "flipping" to unsophisticated investors who get caught up in the "Bakken revolution."

    Good luck to all.

    Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

    We saw a lot of this in North Dakota some decades ago. My hunch is that Harold Hamm picked up a lot of minerals in North Dakota many, many years ago, well before the boom.

    From the linked op-ed:

    Gasoline Demand Not Showing Much Movement -- Despite Record Low Prices -- November 28, 2018

    Link here.

    This morning at Murphy (Walmart), regular unleaded was selling for $1.919/gallon.

    By the way, do we need to say "regular unleaded" any more. Is there anywhere in the US where they are selling "leaded" gasoline?

    I digress.

    Gasoline is very, very inexpensive (except in California) and yet the demand ....

    It looks like there might be a subtle change -- the four-week average is less than the four-week average on year ago, but gasoline demand this past week was slightly more than gasoline demand for the same one-week period a year ago (at least if I'm reading the numbers correctly):


    **************************************
    The Christmas Page

    Our little Charlie Brown Christmas tree now has a string of lights. I think it will look better once we put a bulb or two on it.


    Ah, Yes -- The Hess SC-Hoving Wells Have Been Fracked -- November 28, 2018

    Updates

    April 28, 2020:
    • 35706, 2,382, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-95-1003H-7, Truax, t10/19; cum 142K 12/20; a 37K month; cum 161K 12/21;
    • 35705, 2,716, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-8, Truax, t11/19; cum 173K 12/20; a 34K month; cum 201K 12/21;

    March 13, 2019: after neighboring wells fracked, this well showed a bit of a jump in production --
    • 22946, 1,122, Hess, SC-Hoving 154-98-1003H-1, Truax, t9/12; cum 381K 12/20; see jump in production below; cum 408K 12/21;
    Recent production:

    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN1-20193149395219358788722648307
    BAKKEN12-201831506750454117871439574452
    BAKKEN11-20182027892499309539986723140
    BAKKEN10-2018180128280
    BAKKEN9-20180000000
    BAKKEN8-20184192011146238141
    BAKKEN7-201831206921124914692435131

    Original Post

    This well suggested that the SC-Hoving wells have been fracked. Note that it was a great well that came off line in August, 2018, and then in September, 2018, came back on line (yes, just that one day). I checked one other neighboring SC-Hoving wells and it was fracked in September, 2018. I assume the other SC-Hoving wells have been fracked.

    This well:
    • 22946, 1,122, Hess, SC-Hoving 154-98-1003H-1, Truax, t9/12; cum see above; recent production --
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN10-20181801000
    BAKKEN9-20180000000
    BAKKEN8-20184192011146238141
    BAKKEN7-201831206921124914692435131
    BAKKEN6-2018301814212345139193244384
    BAKKEN5-2018312080221260445113623582
    BAKKEN4-20182919381898463388016661940
    BAKKEN3-2018312293198150440783410365
    BAKKEN2-2018281622167776045383832454
    BAKKEN1-20183123942512637484825232033

    The graphic:


    The other wells in the graphic (will be updated when the completions are reported):
    • 29690, 1,745, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-6, Truax, t11/18; cum 173K 12/20; maintaining nice production; cum 217K 12/21;
    • 30633, 1,902, Hess, SC-Hoving-LW-154-98-1003H-1, Truax, t11/18-; cum 199K 7/20; off line, 7/20; cum 227K 12/21;
    • 29689, 878, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-5, Traux, t7/15; cum 200K 12/20; off line as of 7/18; back on line as of 11/18; cum 210K 12/21;
    • 29688, 779, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-4, Traux, t8/15; cum 162K 12/20; off line as of 8/18; back on line as of 3/19; cum 176K 12/21;
    • 29687, 985, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-3, Traux, t7/15; cum 124K 12/20 -- recent production; note that is has just come back on line; cum 141K 12/21;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN10-2018147015772801000
    BAKKEN9-2018000037370
    BAKKEN8-20180000000
    BAKKEN7-201800660000
    BAKKEN6-201891953503431072104213
    BAKKEN5-2018311085123911904768466343
    BAKKEN4-2018281060993133840553333667
    BAKKEN3-2018311210123213514050395144
    BAKKEN2-201828112585113853097302518
    BAKKEN1-201862463044316186033
    • 29686, 1,424, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-2, Truax, t7/15; cum 258K 12/20; -- recent production (note: it is currently off line): back on line as of 1/19;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN10-2018002130000
    BAKKEN9-2018000037370
    BAKKEN8-2018125541469683296028641
    BAKKEN7-2018302435203715328646838673
    BAKKEN6-20183021701966133985697819620
    BAKKEN5-20183025923010101267146509119

    • 34169, 1,426, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-4, Truax, t11/18; cum 225K 2/20; high production maintained; off line 12/21; cum 265K 12/21;
    • 34168, S1,450, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-3, Truax, t11/18; cum 317K 12/20; high production maintained; cum 358K 12/21;
    • 34167, 1,550, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-2, Truax, t10/18; cum 248K 12/20; high production maintained; cum 282K 12/21;
    • 35706, 2,382, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-95-1003H-7, Truax, t10/19; cum 142K 12/20;a 37K month; cum 161K 12/21;
    • 35705, 2,716, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-8, Truax, t11/19; cum 1173K 12/10; a 34K month; cum 201K 12/21;

    The XTO FBIR Blackmedicine Wells In Heart Butte

    Updates

    March 22, 2020: incredibly awful wells, look at the size of the fracks and still lousy wells; I noted this date that two wells have just come off line; 

    Original Post

    The well:
    • 20600, 1,831, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21B, Heart Butte, 33-025-01341, t6/12; cum 430K 9/20; recent production profile, and of course it has not been re-fracked:
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN9-201830585958847884272826250
    BAKKEN8-201830565654198236283427460
    BAKKEN7-2018203625349298761546967541
    BAKKEN6-201831274480421724
    BAKKEN5-2018281033510545741344757783628
    BAKKEN4-20182814341138779641657129863455
    BAKKEN3-20186125814482384583372185
    BAKKEN2-201828659666511561330376402297
    BAKKEN1-20181656676195963228427622003
    BAKKEN12-201722816973711228742802893829
    BAKKEN11-20178134015303870688107566
    BAKKEN10-2017319071926613613531018263409
    BAKKEN9-20173057555734574942836643577
    BAKKEN8-201715369832861024253414841010
    BAKKEN7-20170000000
    BAKKEN6-20170000000

    Production before the well went off-line:
    BAKKEN2-20160000000
    BAKKEN1-20160000000
    BAKKEN12-2015151852207711371083199701
    BAKKEN11-20153039453924188024571968116
    BAKKEN10-2015314240425220502690227812
    BAKKEN9-20153041424237199825112126100
    BAKKEN8-2015314350421321892674232952
    BAKKEN7-20153144314405228126472255100
    BAKKEN6-2015304541458122622610230018
    BAKKEN5-2015314935522425072693236526

    The graphic:


    The other wells:
    • 32707, 296, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21EXH, t9/17; cum 173K 9/20;
    • 32302, 1,341, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21AXD, t8/17; cum 148K 9/20;
    • 32283, 222, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21E, t9/17; cum 85K 9/20;
    • 32290, 419, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21A, t10/17; cum 137K 9/20;
    • 32291, IA/1,146, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21F, 40 stages, 7.4 million lbs; Three Forks,  t8/17; cum 43K 11/19; off line 11/19; remains off line 9/20;
    • 32279, 2 (no typo), XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21G, t10/17; cum 68K 9/20;
    • 32280, 702, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21C, t10/17; cum 122K 9/20;
    • 32281, 560, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21H, t9/17; cum 129K 9/20;
    • 32282, 872, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21CXD, t10/17; cum 179K 9/20;
    • 32472, IA/529, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21D, 60 stages; 22 million lbs, middle Bakken; t9/17; cum 129K 9/20; off line 12/19; remains off line 1/20; back on line 2/20;

    US Crude Oil Inventories Up A Whopping 3.6 Million Bbls; Now More Than 7% Over The Five-Year Average

    More than 7% over the five-year average -- and the five-year average includes 2014 - 2016 when Saudi opened the spigots and dumped as much as oil on the market as they could to kill the US shale sector. 

    Link here.
    • US crude oil inventories: increased by another whopping 3.6 million bbls
    • inventories now stand at 450.5 million bbls -- breaking through 450 million bbls -- wow
    • inventories now 7% above the five-year average for this time of the year -- wow
    • WTI, right now, holds steady, drops about 50 cents; barely holding above $51
    • refinery operating capacity at: 95.6% -- fairly high, considering
    • both gasoline and distillate fuel production slightly higher than their 10.0 and 5.0 - million benchmark
    • imports slightly more than same time last year -- refineries need heavy oil to balance light oil; California needs imported oil
    • jet fuel produced: up 4.1% compared with same time last year
    • by the way, that "five-year average" continues to increase. One needs to look at the historical "norm" -- which for me is 350 million bbls -- 450 is 28.5% greater than the 350-million benchmark
    Number of weeks it will take to "re-balance" at this rate:

    Week
    Date
    Change w-o-w
    In Storage
    Weeks To RB
    Week 0
    November 21, 2018
    4.9
    446.9
    N/A
    Week 1
    November 28, 2018
    3.6
    450.5
    N/A


    When we started following the first "re-balancing act" we started with 529 million bbls of oil in US inventory. So, we're well below that "529" but at 447 million last week and 450 million this week, we are .... well ... trending in the wrong direction.

    And the problem no one is talking about: no matter how low the price of oil goes, the shale operators have no choice but to keep putting oil in the pipelines -- they must meet their contractual obligations.

    The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+22 -- Wednesday, November, 28, 2018 -- The Bill & Hillary Show -- Tickets Going For $6.55; 3,300 Tickets Bought

    Updates

    November 29, 2018: the Bill & Hill show -- we will get to the ZeroHedge link in a second, but whatever happened to "civic duty"? I would have thought a former president would have some "class" and speak publicly at nation's high schools and colleges for free. But then again, Ulysses S Grant found himself in trouble financially at the end of his life and with the help of Mark Twain wrote an incredible memoir which left him/his family financially sound. So perhaps it's fine. But we don't see the Bushes do it? I don't know. Maybe they do. But Barack, Bill, Hill -- all sort of pathetic -- now that link from ZeroHedge. Even at $6.55/seat, the stadium was 83% empty. Photos and story at the link.
    Unfortunately, as the image above shows, the supposed-power-couple's draw is starting to fade as the  Daily Mail reports that just 3,300 tickets were sold in the Scotiabank Arena in downtown Toronto, which holds 19,800.
    If the costs of staging the tour end up costing more than the "gate," one wonders if the tour will be curtailed? Bill & Hill may have made a mistake announcing the entire tour schedule. It might have been better to keep it "open-ended."

    Original Post 

    A huge "thank you" to Don. I was looking for this information; couldn't find it. Here it is, the real price folks are paying to attend the Hillary-Bill show -- as opposed to the advertise price ... LOL.

    From The Daily Mail which seems to follow US current events better than any US media outlet:
    • Bill and Hillary Clinton are beginning a paid speaking tour
    • Their first 'Evening with the Clintons' event is at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto 
    • Interviewed by Canadian politician and diplomat Frank McKenna, the Deputy Chair TD Bank Group 
    • Bill Clinton said the U.S. had 'compromised' its moral leadership in the world under Trump 
    • Hillary Clinton had a short coughing spell about an hour into the talk  
    • Live Nation bills as 'one-of-a-kind conversation'
    • The tour began on a day with major developments in the Russia probe on the heels of auto plant closings announced in the U.S. and Canada 
    • There were empty seats both in upper level seats and on the ground floor, where tickets were pricier 
    • One ticket was going for $6.55 in the final minutes before the event
    • Hillary: 'We have a president and those closest to him who have their own personal commercial interests' in Saudi Arabia
    There is no risk whatsoever of any of these events being sold out. No reason whatsoever to buy tickets ahead of time. Walk up at the last minute and pay $6.55. My hunch: a lot of Democratic foundations will give away free tickets.

    Advice: if they want a larger crowd, serve free food.

    If they want a standing-room-crowd, serve free beer.

    Wow, can you imagine if you paid $500 / ticket when they first went on sale, and you attended the event sitting next to some yuppie who paid $6.55? Wow. Is "pissed-off" spelled with one "s" or two?

    *****************************************
    Global Warming


    For the archives, otherwise I would not post and I would not care. Link here.


    *******************************
    Back in 1958: We Worried About The Coming Ice Age


    ******************************
    Flake

    The mainstream media continues to float this trope: that Trump's judicial nominations are in trouble now that Senator Jeff Flake's attempt to pass a "protect-Mueller" failed. Flake said he would not support any more Trump judicial nominations if his bill failed to pass, bringing the US Senate to only 50 GOP members that might support Trump nominations.

    The state of Missouri just re-elected their GOP US Senator which means as of January 20, 2019, the GOP will widen their edge -- albeit very slightly -- to 53 - 47 in the US Senate. I doubt there are many nominations to vote on between now and January 20, 2019, with all the holidays the US Senators will soon be taking.

    The bigger issue: funding the government. By the way, all that talk about shutting down the government over funding for "the wall"? All political theater. In two separate funding bills, Congress has authorized slightly more than $3 billion for "the wall." You can get a lot done with $3 billion -- especially if it's just concertina wire.

    Regardless, it has been stated many times that "the wall," in fact, is being built.

    And regardless of whether the spending bill is approved or not, apparently 75% of the budget has been funded in previous votes. Trump will have lots of fun explaining why he's mad at GM for laying for about 3,000 workers in the US just before Christmas, and then he, himself, shuts down the US government, laying off many poverty-paid public employees just before that same holiday -- a holiday Trump says is very, very important to him.

    **********************************
    Vaudeville

    Burns and Allen
    Bill and Hillary -- An Evening With
    Algore -- a 24-hour telethon to save Earth
    Schumer and Pelosi -- half the act is back

    On Politics