Thursday, May 9, 2019

NOG

NOG is tracked here.

NOG
  • 1Q20: link here -- 44Kboepd; net income of $0.74 driven in part by a $345 million mark-to-market gain in derivatives; 1Q20 adjusted income was $0.04 per share down from $0.07 a year earlier;
  • 4Q19 and full year 2019: link here
  • 2Q19 earnings: link here; production increased 66% year-over-year; 34,965 boepd; 3.2 million boe in 2Q19; net income, 12 cents, beating forecast of 11 cents;
  • 1Q19 earnings: press release; 34,598 boepd; adjusted, a gain of 7 cents/share or $27.8 million; a huge loss due to non-cash mark-to-market loss on hedges; forecast: 12 cents/share;
  • April 22, 2019: acquires 18K net acres; $300 million; $17K/acre; if it produces 6,600 boepd as anticipated, that's quite a jump in production
  • January, 2019, corporate presentation; 151,978 net acres; 4Q18 mid-point guidance, 35,500 boepd; 3Q18: 26,708 boepd; total proved reserves have increased 79% year-over-year; most of that due to acquisitions; now at 135.5 million boe;
  • 4Q18 press release prior to earnings announcement later this month -- January 22, 2019; 151,978 net acres; 97% HBP in ND; 3Q18: 27K boepd; 4Q18 guidance, 36K boepd; CWC: $8 million; 2018 wells tracking 1 million boe EUR; major partners: Slawson (15%); CLR (14%); Whiting (12%); Hess (8%): COP (7%); Oasis (5%); XTO (5%); EOG (5%); operating expenses, $9/boe;
  • 2Q18 earnings: adjusted earnings, 9 cents; beats by one cent; raises full year production guidance by 60% over 2017; 2Q18 production exceedes expectations, increased 53% y/y and 17% sequentially; now averaging 21,046 boepd; exited the quarter with 16.4 net wells in production; added 8.1 organic net wells; three acquisitions this year: Salt Creek; Pivotal; and W Energy; Salt Creek closed June 4, 2018;
  • July 31, 2018: NOG to aquire 10,600 acres for  $300 million; $28,000 / acre; W Energy deal
  • July 18, 2018: NOG to acquire "large package of producing wells" from Pivotal Petroleum Partners; appears no acreage involved?
  • April 26, 2018: NOG acquires 1,300 incredibly good Bakken acres for an incredible $49 million ($40 million in cash; 6 million shares in NOG)
  • March, 2018: $120 million public offering; NOG to raise $120 million in new public offering? Mostly for acquisition and drilling program. If acquisition alone, in North Dakota, back-of-the-envelope: $120 million / $2,000-acre = 60,000 acres. My last update shows NOG with 145,000 net acres (2017); has had as much as 180,000 net acres (2012)
  • 3Q17: 145,749 net acres; link here16,285 bopd in 2015; 165,000 net acres in 2015;
  • 1Q17: 13,299 boepd; EURs tracking 1 million boe; 30-day IPs now (2016) average 1,485 boepd; net income for 1Q17 was $16.9 million; adjusted net income was a loss of $0.1 million; adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $29.6 million
  • 1Q14: 13,287 boepd (20% increase q/q); 185,000 net acres (company's press release);
  • 2013 average: 12,261 boepd; 187,000 acres.
  • 3Q13 press release: 13,000 boepd;
  • March, 2013 update: 12th largest leaseholder in the Bakken; 180,000 net acres; 106 net wells; currently drilling 157 gross (12 net) wells); proved reserves, 68 million boe; still says has potential to acquire 3,000 to 5,000+ acres/quarter; I don't see much change since last presentation.
  • 4Q12 update: 10,000 boepd; 106 net wells; 
  • November, 2012, corporate presentation: 184,000 net acres;
  • 2Q12: 180,000 net acres; average cost: $2,184/acre for most recent 7,060 net acres in key prospect area; 16 net wells in 2Q12;
  • June corporate presentation: 177K acres; average cost: $1,832; $15 - $20 million/quarter in 2012 for acreage acquisition
  • 1Q12 results: 173,000 net acres; average cost: $1,672/acre; acquired 10,278 net acres in 1Q12;
  • Dec 15, 2011, corp update -- 4Q11: acquired 7,600 acres; $19 million ($2,500/acre); exit 2011 w/ 160,000 net WB acres
  • Exit 2011 with 37 net wells; spud 40 wells in 2011; avg 7,000 boepd
  • Exit 2011: 10,000 boepd (compare with OAS and KOG)
  • CAPEX for 2012: $325 million; spud 44 wells; avg cost of Bakken well -- $7.4 million
  • BEXP presentation (link now broken) says NOG has 148,904 net acres; early 2011
  • 147,407 net acres in North Dakota Bakken and Three Forks (according to 2010 annual, released Mar 2, 2011)
  • Analyst's figure: 130,000 net acres (December 31, 2010)
  • Avg daily production (bbls): 140 (2008); 800 (2009); 2,500 (2010); 5,000 (2011);
  • NOG CONFERENCE NOTES, 2012:
As a non-operator NOG takes advantage of the discount in prices for small parcels of non-op acreage compared to operated acreage.  Moreover, without the drilling infrastructure NOG maintains more flexibility should oil prices fall out of bed.
Acreage is acquired in the path of development, giving great time value metrics.
NOG will issue an updated reserve report with Q2 results.  With 40% of net wells having come online in 2012, expect NPV-10 to balloon.
NOG participates in ~25% of North Dakota Bakken wells, with average interests of almost 10%.
Hedged:  75% for balance of 2012 with a floors near $91;  hedged 50% for 2013 with floors near $90.
Drilled more net wells in Q1 2012 than OAS or KOG.
When the oil price is down, acreage acquisition dynamics moves into their favor.

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