Thursday, March 12, 2020

Sand Creek Update -- March 12, 2020

Two things happened almost simultaneously. Okay, three things:
  • Oasis with two new permits in Sand Creek;
  • a reader suggested I take another look at Sand Creek; and, 
  • I noted the other day that Sand Creek is really turning out to be a great field. I had kind of forgotten about Sand Creek but it, too, is going to be a monster.
There are so many great fields in the Bakken, some get lost in the shuffle. 

Those are the fields to watch during the 2020 oil shock-market meltdown.

Oil companies really, really try to optimize their plays, manage their assets. The last thing they want to do is deplete their great plays. Once found, oil companies want to minimize efforts that would needlessly deplete their great plays and focus on looking for new big plays -- either through exploration or acquisition.

Just as we saw in the trillion-dollar mistake back in 2014, with the 2020 oil shock-market meltdown, we're going to see the same thing: a circling of wagons and laser-like focus on biggest bang for the buck.

One casualty, if one wants to call it a casualty, is that operators will now go back into fields like the Sand Creek and deplete them, wishing they did not have to do that.

I am in the process of updating Sand Creek but even now, scrolling through the status of the permits in Sand Creek, one can see how much work is left to be done.

Case study, #19889:
The well:
  • 19889, 1,678, XTO, Sand Creek 21-10SH, 33-053-03348, Sand Creek oil field, section 10-153-96, t5/11; cum 596K 1/20; in its ninth year of production; FracFocus suggests no re-frack; I haven't checked the NDIC file report recently; 
Production at time of first frack:
BAKKEN10-2011101180512016412128294628288
BAKKEN9-20113098129782116715754194613808
BAKKEN8-2011311275612812172921484376917715
BAKKEN7-2011311345113051196922463780314660
BAKKEN6-2011301545415441231422342715015192
BAKKEN5-2011291610316173353119006877010236
BAKKEN4-20112214237494996326803268

Production five years later, no re-frack?
BAKKEN12-201622173481710851473407032848486
BAKKEN11-20163021723217611030942107392882010
BAKKEN10-201631295172936812447549104306011010
BAKKEN9-201627271972711511042476203154515717
BAKKEN8-20163128192280741083453086511581737
BAKKEN7-20162422225222571725235045250109907
BAKKEN6-20160000000
BAKKEN5-2016174440100
BAKKEN4-2016292595227539537602758295

Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20203119912129157018808180040
BAKKEN12-20193119801879151619956191350
BAKKEN11-2019301938212113471273060445905
BAKKEN10-2019311657137614211081886721299
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-201911196244150218119720
BAKKEN6-20193018442051145016481158070
BAKKEN5-20193124122383155215904136011554
BAKKEN4-2019161132966851788248382657
BAKKEN3-201950002602540
BAKKEN2-201911409663252258011601150
BAKKEN1-2019311525181398599648486654

Pop quiz: when you scroll through the Sand Creek permits, what do you notice, what pops up immediately?

Answer: the field is not "owned' by any one operator. Numerous operators in that field, and not just small players, but some of the biggest players in the Bakken, in no particular order, just scrolling through the list:
  • Newfield
  • BR
  • XTO
  • Whiting
  • Oasis
  • Slawson

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