From Whiting's November, 2016, Presentation; Targeting 1.5 Million BOE EURs -- December 3, 2016

Updates

December 10, 2016: contributor over at SeekingAlpha doesn't believe Whiting's numbers or projections.
 

Original Post

The usual disclaimer. 

Whiting is projecting 1.5 million boe EUR wells in the Bakken. Currently, the standard is 900,00 boe EURs. 

For newbies: search "EURS" at the blog. I have long forgotten but early on in the boom, EURs of 400,000 were the norm, but by 2014, we were talking some remarkably higher estimates. See this post: EURs in excess of 2 million boe?

Highlights:

• 3Q16 LOE below low end guidance at $7.98 / boe ("below" is good)
• Williston Basin 5+ million pound completions: tracking 900,000 boe-type curves
• Williston Basin 10+ million pound completions: tracking1.5 million boe-type curves
• thirteen (13) new McKenzie County test at average rate of 3,727 boe/day 
• Whiting is focused on the Bakken and the Niobrara
• positioning the company to be the operator in those two basins
• Williston Basin: 106,000 boe/day
• Niobrara (Redtail): 11,000 boe/day
• Bakken acreage
• 738,479 gross acres
• 443,125 net acres 
• 99% held by production
• completed well cost: $6.8 million
• Bakken development plan
  
  1280-acre units
• 5,471 potential gross drilling locations
• targeting 900,000 boe EUR wells in 2016
• approximately 22 DUCs at end of CY2016
• correction from original post (see first comment): Whiting's most recent presentation does not mention southwest North Dakota but a reader says that 6% of Whiting's locations are still in Stark County
• most of Whiting's interests are around Williston, Watford City, Parshall
• EUR s have jumped from 700,000 boe to 900,000 boe using "enhanced completion")
• but look at this:

Record-setting production: According to their data, Whiting is the top producer in the Bakken based on initial 90-day production rate for wells completed between August, 2015, and July, 2016. Peer group includes Newfield, QEP, Oasis, XTO, Hess, EOG, BR, CLR, and SM Energy.

Drilling times -- Bakken -- Niobrara:

• 1Q12: 40 days Bakken; 16 days Niobrara
• 1Q13: 30 days Bakken; 18 days Niobrara
• 1Q14: 30 days Bakken; 12 days Niobrara
• 1Q15: 24 days Bakken; 15 days Niobrara
• 1Q16: 14 days Bakken; 7 days Niobrara

Note: the drilling times are "spud to spud" -- this is really quite amazing -- the time it takes a rig to drill a well and then move to thenext location and begin drilling the next well. When the Bakken boom began, it could take weeks to get a rig torn down, moved to a new location, and then set back up before beginning drilling again.

Cash flow:

According to their data, Whiting is the top operator based on cash flow vs CAPEX. WLL cash flow/CAPEX ratio is 200%. The peer group ranges from 175% to a very, very low 25%. [100%: Cash flow = CAPEX; 200%: cash flow is twice CAPEX]. Peer group includes Noble Energy, Denbury Resources, CLR, Cimarex Exploration, EOG, SM Energy, Pioneer Natural Resources, Murphy OIl, Concho Resources, Oasis Petroleum, and Range Resources.

Very liquid balance sheet.

Hedges:

• 2016: $44 - $74
• 2017: $53 - $70

There is so much to write about / consider when discussing hedges that the actual prices are only a single data point, but I don't want to go down that road right now.