EURs Of > 2 Million BOE In The Bakken? June 2, 2014

Disclaimer: I make simple math errors. I make bad assumptions. I can't keep track of who is estimating "barrels of oil (BO)"  versus "barrels of oil equivalent (BOE)."

Disclaimer: this is for my own use. I strongly recommend no one draw any conclusions from these calculations or make any investment decisions based on them. I throw it out on the blog because it's where I do stuff -- that was the intent of the blog from the beginning. Feel free to read but this is what I'm seeing at the moment.

I still have to clean up this post regarding EURs suggested by Hess based on a corporate presentation: 

http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2014/06/hess-botpe-annual-stockholders-meeting.html

In that note I suggested that EURs for a long lateral = 2.4 million boe or 1.2 million boe for a short lateral.

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For newbies: Harold Hamm says 603,000 bo [I believe oil, but it could boe]. Filloon says some of the better long laterals will have EURs of 1.0 million.

So EURs of 1.0 million are at the top end (long laterals).

So, when numbers at a Hess presentation suggest 2.4 million boe, it's nice to see if one can find that number anywhere else.)

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Don sent me this SeekingAlpha article on XTO earlier today.

In that article, Michael Fitzsimmons said XTO had ~ 570,000 acres. (By the way, that number agrees closely with the number I show at my "Snapshot" page.)

There was a graphic at the top of that article that said XTO has > 900 million boe resource in the Bakken.

Doing the arithmetic again: 900,000,000 boe / 570,000 acres = 1,579 boe / acre A long lateral, 1280 acres x 1,579 = 2.02 million boe.

So, now I have two large operators, with large acreage, that doing basic math, suggests EURs of over 2.0 million boe. This is significantly more than what the corporate presentations still say. 

Again, in case you missed it the first time, two disclaimers:

Disclaimer: I make simple math errors. I make bad assumptions. I can't keep track of who is estimating "barrels of oil (BO)"  versus "barrels of oil equivalent (BOE)."

Disclaimer: this is for my own use. I strongly recommend no one draw any conclusions from these calculations or make any investment decisions based on them. I throw it out on the blog because it's where I do stuff -- that was the intent of the blog from the beginning. Feel free to read but this is what I'm seeing at the moment.

For newbies: in some parts of the Bakken it looks like some operators will report 92% oil, the rest liquid condensate and natural gas. In other parts of the Bakken, some operators will report closer to 80% oil with the rest being liquid condensate and natural gas, less of the latter, more of the former. 

With the new rules in the war on coal, natural gas becomes more valuable, raising the overall value of "BOE."