Notes From All Over, Part 4 -- November 1, 2019

Make my day! Beto withdraws from presidential race. Julian Castro next? Then Kamala?

Market: a most incredible day; both NASDAQ and S&P 500 set new all-time records; Dow up over 300 points; what just happened ... let's count the reasons ...

Sixteen Reasons, Connie Stevens

• China -- wasn't there something about a breakthrough today? Memo to self: check twitter
• China
• China
• easy money -- first rate cut
• easy money -- second rate cut
• easy money  -- third rate cut
• jobs report smashes estimates -- African-American unemployment at record low
• no wage inflation
• November 1, 2019 -- first day after October 31, 2019 -- see note below -- professionals told to jump in
• when market started to move, computer algorithms did the rest
• FB
• AAPL 
• FOMO: fear of missing out
• WTI up 3.5% (although this is somewhat a derivative of the China factor above)
• total return -- dividends; buybacks; vs money market, cash, bonds
• the worst is behind us? Santa Claus rally yet to come?

April 4, 2019: thirty reasons why the market is surging.

But, does it make sense? GDP at 1.9% and trending lower. Two things:

• China
• presidential election year

Reality sucks, state estate tax:

• New York state tax: 16% on estates worth more than $10.1 million. Think about that: million. A billion-dollar estate -- heirs will immediately fork over $160 million to Governor Cuomo. 
• It starts at 3.06% and goes up to 16% for taxable estates worth more than $10.1 million. The taxable estate is the value of the estate above the $5.25 million exemption (unless the estate reaches that cliff of 105% of $5.25 million, then the whole estate is taxable).
• New Jersey: worse -- 16% on estates that exceed $2 million
• Connecticut: complicated; the good news, there is a cap
• Massachusetts: same as NY --16% on 10.04 million 
• Oregon: begins on estates as little as $1 million; progressive, to 16%
• Ohio: 7% on estates over half-a-million dollars
• Illinois: begins on estates of $4 million; progressive to 16%
• California, Florida, Texas: no death tax

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be factual and typographical errors. If anything mentioned in the blog is important to you, go to the source.

WTI: up 3.64% today.

Market: most incredible action today -- remember -- this was sent to me by a reader yesterday -- yesterday, October 31, 2019, last day that mutual funds made changes to their portfolios before "going final" for the year. Stocks sold off yesterday as mutual funds locked in profits. So, "stuff" was beat down a bit yesterday .... today .... mutual funds moving in with direction from the top to buy. There seems to me to be a huge FOMO ... fear of missing out. 

Note: the new Apple TV+ television show "Dickinson" is NOT a spin-off from the Coen Bros' "Fargo."

Wow! Not only is the general market doing well (NASDAQ and S&P 500 hit new highs), but WTI is up almost 2%. That was earlier in the day; closed up 3.64%.

Politics: nationally, Pocahontas is polling, at best, 23%. Twenty-three percent of 51% is ... drum roll ... 11.73% nationally. Yes, I know ... the numbers will change when its one-on-one with Trump.

European Wax Center: moving from South Florida to Plano, TX. Will close Florida and New York offices. Speaking on the move, a spokesperson for EWC, said that a significant reason for the move to Texas, specifically, Plano: the existence of a large pool of technologically-astute workers. Hmmm. Then a light bulb went off. Literally just down the road from Plano is University Texas Dallas -- UTD. Over the past two years I have been on the campus every few weekends and visited many weeks on a daily basis during the summer. I was amazed how fast this "new" campus has been growing, and it appears that its niche is technology. Our two granddaughters took software / computer coding summer courses at UTD during the past two summers. It is obvious that UTD is becoming the "farm team" for tech companies on the north side of DFW airport. This is a pretty big deal for what it represents.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Crescent Point Energy: confirms 1 cent/share dividend.

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SRE

SRE: beats on 3Q19 earnings; ups CY19 EPS view. Up $2.75, up almost 2%. Trading near 52-we high.

• eps: $1.50 vs consensus of $1.49
• but look at this: barring one-time items, the company generated GAAP earnings of $2.84 per share compared with 99 cents same quarter one year ago;
• repeat, in case you missed that, earnings, $2.84 3Q19 vs less than a dollar 3Q18
• revenues: 
• 3Q19: $2.76 billion, up 7.5% y/y but that still missed estimates of $2.92 billion
• segments, most interesting:
• San Diego Gas & Electric: $263 million vs $205 million a year ago
• Southern California Gas Company: $143 million vs $14 million one year ago
• Sempra Texas Utility: $212 million vs $154 million one year ago
• Sempra Mexico: $84 million vs $44 million one year ago
• Sempra Renewables: $0 (no typo) vs $34 million one year ago 
• Sempra LNG: $2 million vs $16 million one year ago
• Parent and other: a loss of $139 million vs a loss of $211 million a year ago

SRE, other observations:

• yes, once again -- did you all see the earnings SRE booked on renewables? Zero. Nada. Nil. Zilch. 
• I was surprised by reduced earnings on LNG; didn't see that coming
• Southern California Gas: a 10-fold increase in revenue, from $14 million a year ago to $143 million this quarter (probably needs to be double-checked)

Later, a reader wrote:

Sempra announced last September the first of a multi-phase initiative to optimize its portfolio, spinning off solar and battery storage and other renewable assets for $1.54 billion to Consolidated Edison. That acquisition, which included one wind facility, involved about 980 MW of installed capacity.

Sempra's activist investors, Elliott Management and Bluescape Resources, have called for the company to spin off its U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) businesses and its businesses in Latin America. The company created a new LNG and business development committee in September as part of an agreement with the investment management firms.

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Others

XOM, beats:

• beat expectations
• 49% slump in earnings for 3Q19, y/y
• earnings: $3.17 billion, down from $6.24 billion one year ago
• EPS: slumped from $1.46 last year this time to 75 cents 3Q19 (another source said, 68 cents)
• revenue: $65.05 billion
• boe production: increased by 3% y/y; at almost 4 million bopd; soared by 70 percent in the Permian
• up 7 percent quarter/quarter (3Q19/2Q19)
• remains world's largest publicly traded oil company; five producers out-produce XOM but all of the are state-controlled companies like Saudi Aramco, Rosneft, etc

CVX, misses:

• 36% decline in earnings, y/y
• EPS: $1.36 vs $1.45 forecast
• revenue: $36.12 billion vs $37.69 billion forecast
• earnings: $2.6 billion, down from $4 billion last year
• revenue: $36.12 billion