If BP Is Happy, Everybody's Happy; First Time Unemployment Claims Surge -- November 16, 2017

EIA's gasoline demand graph:

Weekly first time unemployment claims, link here:

• prior: 229,000
• forecast: 232,000
• actual: 239,000
• 4-week moving average: 232,500

Wells reporting today:

• 33403, SI/NC, MRO, Stroup 34-7TFH, Bailey, no production data, 
• 33400, SI/NC, MRO, Ernst 14-7TFH, Bailey, no production data,
• 32978, SI/NC, BR, Dodge 3C TFH, Dimmick Lake, no production data,
• 32477, 530, Whiting, Buckman 34-9-2PH, Bell, Three Forks, 45 stages; 9.4 million lbs, t5/17; cum 37K 9/17;

UN in Williston: more than 200 students in "English Language" program in Williston's District 1 school system represent 27 languages. That's an increase of about seven languages from last year. More accurately, in Williston there are more than 27 languages spoken, but these 27 represent only students enrolled in the "English Language" program. Data points:

• Creole is spoken at ever school except McVay Elementary
• Tagalog at every school except Lewis and Clark, and Richard elementaries
• Adult "English Language" classes are offered for free; a Title III grant

Bakken oil exports: Argus Media is reporting that CLR is set to export a second Bakken cargo.  Data points:

• 430,000 bbls
• January delivery to overseas markets
• the transaction will take place at Cushing, OK
• the Brent-WTI spread has widened to over $6/bbl in recent weeks from about $2/bbl earlier in the summer
• the article does not post the Brent-Bakken spread but it is very, very narrow according to an early source (posted previously)

Big headline, little story: Oil & Gas Journal is reporting that Devon is reporting a 5,100 boe/d STACK well in Oklahoma.  The 30-day average of 4,600 boe/d is 65% oil. Net production will be more than 120,000 boe/d by yearend. Anyone following the Bakken can put this story in perspective. Operators in the Bakken are targeting 150,000 bopd in first six months. The article does not provide breakeven price in STACK; in North Dakota the breakeven price is $21/bbl (previously posted)

Oh-oh: Abu Dhabi to boost oil by 380,000 bopd.

BP lookin' good, from Reuters via Rigzone, story speaks volumes about boom and bust cycle of the oil sector. Remember, WTI is currently $55, holding steady; breakeven price in the Bakken is $21 statewide (previously reported):

BP Plc said on Wednesday it would begin a share buyback programme, making it the first major European energy company to resume buybacks since the 2014 price slump in a sign years of austerity have paid off.

The British oil company, which recently reported a doubling in third-quarter profit, said the buyback programme had been authorised for between Nov. 15 and the date of its 2018 annual general meeting, with the maximum number of shares not exceeding 1.96 billion.

Discord in paradise, from Bloomberg via Twitter:

The man overseeing western Europe’s biggest crude spigot is fighting back against the oil doubters.

Norway’s push into the Arctic, necessary to prolong the nation’s more than four decades of petroleum production, is running into a multi-pronged attack with claims that projects will be unprofitable and an unprecedented lawsuit targeting the government.

Market: Dow futures up 60 points.

GDP Now, latest forecast: 3.2% for 4Q17.

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.2 percent on November 15, down from 3.3 percent on November 9.

After this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast of real consumer spending growth remained 3.2 percent and the forecast of real residential investment growth declined from 5.0 percent to 4.2 percent.

Venezuela default, impact on markets. I don't think the writer or the expert did a very good job making the point, but the story is exactly right. If -- but it's not going to happen -- the global market suddenly loses Venezuela's 2 million bopd production, it would be a "big shock" to the system. But Saudi Arabia's "spare capacity" and CBR from Canadian oil fields would quickly fill the void. If Venezuela's oil production (or exports) cease completely, "we" will have bigger problems than energy. The humanitarian crisis will be, perhaps, the biggest humanitarian crisis in modern history in the western hemisphere. And Russia and China are poised to step in to "help." Russia already has. The UN will be completely ineffective, and the US is in no mood to help Venezuela. The US hardly has much interest in Puerto Rico, it seems.

Surprise, surprise: the three hoods admit to shoplifting and they do thank President Trump for getting them out of China. No links, story easily found.

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Back To Business

Active rigs:

$55.27→	11/16/2017	11/16/2016	11/16/2015	11/16/2014	11/16/2013
Active Rigs	55	38	63	186	183

RBN Energy: Permian crude oil shuttle pipelines and gathering systems provide destination flexibility.

Wide swings in the value of Permian crude oil in Midland, TX, the storage and distribution hub in Cushing, OK, and Gulf Coast points like Houston in recent months have only reinforced the importance of destination flexibility. The ability of Permian producers and shippers to access multiple takeaway pipelines and, with that, the market that will give them the highest possible price for their product, is being enhanced by the addition of new intra-basin shuttle pipelines, gathering systems and hybrid gather-and-shuttle networks. These new pipes are designed to help connect new wellheads across the Permian’s Midland and Delaware basins with two, three or even more takeaway pipelines, adding new robustness to the region’s infrastructure and enabling crude to flow to where it is most valued at any given time. Today, we discuss highlights of the Permian crude oil shuttle pipelines and gathering systems.

Permian crude oil production continues to rise, new production areas are coming online and producers and shippers know this: the surest way to get the top price for their crude is to be able to deliver their barrels to the market that’s paying the top price. That’s logical, of course, but it’s not always possible — a significant portion of Permian production can only flow to one takeaway pipeline and therefore only to wherever that pipe is headed.