RBN Energy: Why The Recent Crude Price Collapse Was Unusually Severe --
On Friday (January 22, 2016) West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices on the CME/NYMEX futures exchange closed up $2.66/Bbl – the second day of a recovery from their 28% plunge during the first 20 days of 2016.
The jury is still out on whether the recovery will be sustained.
There was a similar (though less pronounced) price decline a year ago in January 2015 that did not last very long at the time. But in comparison the price destruction during this month’s collapse was unusually severe - not just because we saw prices under $30/Bbl for the first time since 2003. Today we explain why the extent of the price destruction along the forward curve this time suggests that last week’s recovery may be short lived.Earnings:
- HAL: 24 cents forecast; better than expected at 31 cents;
- McDonalds: $1.23 forecast; sales surge, thanks to all-day breakfast; $1.31 reported; shares surge in pre-market trading
- Yellen began raising rates at just the wrong time; something tells me we won't see another increase in the Fed rate next time around; why the Fed is the root of much turmoil -- WSJ
- Putin's ambitions on hold? Russian oil: output grows as prospects shrink -- WSJ
- Under-reported snow total in the Washington, DC, area; weatherman/woman lost the yardstick that was measuring the snow -- I can't make this stuff up -- and these are the
clownspeople forecasting a 0.1-degree in global temperature 100 years from now (of course, if one is forecasting global warming, there might be a good reason to under-report total snow fall, another conspiracy theory)
- McDonald's stock has room for gains; very, very interesting story -- WSJ; see more on this at this post;
- Iran eyes Boeing plans to modernize aging fleet -- WSJ
- De-icing windmills promotes global warming -- Watts Up With That? This is perhaps the best story of the week, and explains why we call it "intermittent energy"; pretty soon we may start calling it "fair weather energy -- providing the energy to heat / cool your homes when you need neither heating nor cooling"
- Canada's carbon cap may crimp oil giants' new reserves -- WSJ
- The climate snow job -- A blizzard! The hottest year ever! More signs that global warming and its extreme effects are beyond debate, right? Not even close. -- WSJ
- out of extreme curiosity I watched the "premier episode" of the X-Files last night. I was sorely disappointed which was not a bit unexpected; this critic agrees -- he/she is exactly correct
"Measuring snow in a blizzard is a tough thing to do."
Especially when you lose the yardstick.
This story was posted by numerous outlets prior to the blizzard: Soldiers Continue Guarding Tomb of the Unknown Soldier Despite Blizzard.
A little snow isn’t going to stop them! The 3rd U.S. Infantry Regiment’s Old Guard will continue guarding the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier despite historic blizzard conditions on the East Coast.
The Old Guard has watched over the tomb at Arlington National Cemetery in Washington, D.C. 24 hours a day, 365 days a year since 1948.
The cemetery will be closed to visitors as Winter Storm Jonas pummels the area.
“These guys will be out in the snow, no matter what,” Major Russell Fox, a spokesperson for the Old Guard, told ABC News. “They love what they’re doing and they’re dedicated.”Meanwhile, over at Reagan National airport, they "lost" the measuring stick to which tracks snow accumulation. From the linked story above:
On Sunday, Mark Richards, the senior weather observer at National, stood by the accuracy of the reading, saying his team did the best it could under tough conditions.
"Everyone has to understand that measuring snow in a blizzard is a tough thing to do," Richards said. "We would like it to be as accurate as possible," he said. "But it's an inexact science."
However, Bob Leffler, a retired NWS climatologist told the Post that the loss of the snow board may have resulted in Reagan National's observers underreporting the true total amount of snowfall by between 10 and 20 percent, which would make the true total between 19.5 inches and 21.4 inches.Yes, I suppose when one loses the yardstick, it qualifies as an inexact science. Maybe for the next storm they will have the 3rd US Infantry Regiment "guard" the snowboard.