Notes From All Over -- TGIF -- The Mid-Morning Edition -- June 4, 2021

Jobs report: it couldn't have been better.

• CNBC's Rick Santelli nailed it;
  
• for investors: it was the "Goldilocks" numbers
• believable; no one doubted the accuracy of the report;
• too small for the Fed to react negatively; turned pre-market Dow from red to green;
  
• big enough to confirm the economy is still opening up;
• for Joe Biden: bragging rights
• in less than four months, his administration has put more Americans back to work than any other administration; threading the mask/de-masked needle;
• unemployment rate actually dropped; remains nicely below 6%;
• some economists consider 6% and less, full employment;

Jobs report: Yahoo!Finance calls today's job report "disappointing." The comments at the article suggest the report was worse than "disappointing." Me? I thought the report was outstanding. What more do folks want? We've been through an incredible year. "Real-life" folks can't turn on a dime, emotionally. It will take them awhile to get back to "normal." A measured return to work is just fine with me. The market appears to agree with me. 

Road to New England: or should we say, pipeline to New England. There is only one coal-burning power plant now remaining in New England. Link here.

It’s official: Bow has the last coal-burning power plant in New England.

On Tuesday, Unit 3 of Bridgeport Harbor Station in Connecticut shut down, as has long been planned. The 400 MW unit had produced electricity by burning coal for 53 years but its owner, PSEG Power, is replacing it with a 485 MW plant that burns natural gas.

That leaves the 459 MW Merrimack Station in Bow as the last power plant in the six-state region that burns coal.

Its owners, Granite Shore Power, have no plans to shut it down even though it seldom runs, partly because it makes tens of millions of dollars in capacity payments in return for guaranteeing electricity production at peak times.

By the way, that's exactly what energy providers were doing in Texas during the Texas Freeze that generated such high utility bills -- the cost of guaranteeing power at peak times.

ISO New England. Today: no coal-generated electricity. We used to see coal almost every day, but now, no more, except at peak times. Natural gas is supplying over 60% of energy needed to generate electricity in New England; nuclear power, 26%.

For Sophia's portfolio: railroads. If railroads are attractive now, imagine what they will look like when the economy is fully open and max number of automobiles are being shipped, once the semiconductor chip bottleneck is resolved.

WMT: to give half its workers free Samsung phones. That's 740,000 free phones.

FCF: if an oil company was making a penny on "$55-oil," imagine what that company is making on "$70-oil." Especially if that oil company is unhedged. WTI could very well hit $70 today. WTI at $69.23. Let's say an E&P company sells 100,000 bopd x $15 = $1.5 million in free cash flow (?) each day. Although I don't update this page as often as I used to, I follow CLR here.

• end 2020: 177,000 bopd and 1 billion cubic feet per day = 339,240 boepd
• 1Q20 (a year ago): 360,000 boepd
  

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Holy Mackerel: The Need For Speed

Schwab: Until moments ago, every time I traded on Schwab, the executions went through immediately and the information was immediately available on my mobile device (the iPhone). The e-mail confirmation from Schwab generally took one to two days. Moments ago, for the first time ever for me. the Schwab e-mail alert arrived immediately after I placed the trade. Others may be able to do as well, but it's impossible to do better until we get to Minority Report.

I'm not into MEME trading yet, but Schwab has certainly made it easier.

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Streaming: It's All About Content, Cost, and Ease of Use

Content, cost and east of use: but of the three, only content really matters. Ease of use is pretty much a non-issue any more, and, same with cost.

Hulu: until recently I did not understand Roku. Last night I spent a bit of time reading about Roku (a hardware business) and streaming businesses, like Hulu, Amazon, etc. I'm about the last person one wants to listen to when it comes to technology but, wow, I can see where the world is headed. 

Facetime: about a year ago I bought Apple's largest desktop iMac. Our dining area is configured in such a way that the iMac sits perfectly for Facetime calls with family. In addition, it is absolutely perfectly placed for watching television. I use the word "television" loosely because, yes, it's "television" as most of us understand it, but it's not my dad's "television." It's all streaming. I will have to ask our high school granddaughters if they and their peers watch "television" any more, or if they watch Hulu, Roku, Disney+, etc. 

Apple TV+: I've talked about Apple TV+ many, many times. It's a huge disappointment. So, what's better, Hulu or Roku? You can't ask that question: the former is a software / streaming / content entity; the latter is a hardware company that streams "things" like Hulu. So, what's better, Hulu or something else? Quick, name a direct competitor with Hulu. 

Google: what is best streaming tv service hulu roku. Link here for a CNET answer to that question that was posted just two days ago: best live TV streaming service for cord-cutters. Only five make the cut: AT&T TV, FuboTV, Hulu Plus Live TV, Sling TV, and YouTube TV.

What's missing: Disney+, Apple TV+, Netflix. HBO Max. Pluto TV, Amazon. Yes, I know many of these are a bit like comparing apples and oranges, but unlike Roku none of these are hardware companies (except possibly Apple to some extent, and maybe even Amazon, to a very small extent, if you want to be a purist.)

The five: AT&T TV, FuboTV, Hulu Plus Live TV, Sling TV, and YouTube TV. How did CNET rate them. It appears the panel did not want to upset any of the companies. Depending on which metric was being compared, each of the five won out in one category or another.

• I was not surprised to see YouTube TV come out on top overall. I don't subscribe to YouTube TV but I've always had a hunch that You Tube TV would be the best.
  
• Hulu, which I do use, is either as good as YouTube TV or a close second; long term, Hulu will have a huge challenge fending off YouTube TV
• FuboTV? I bet it's gone or absorbed by another streaming company within five years
• AT&T TV: I have no idea. CNET says AT&T TV is best for channel flippers and sports fans. It also also allows up to 20 devices to stream simultaneously where the others allow only three (or two in come cases) devices to stream simultaneously on one account; think about that -- on one account, twenty devices can be used simultaneously.
• Sling TV: it will have to change drastically (and when it does, it will have to double its subscription price) to survive.
  

By category:

• Hardware: Roku was a bridge between legacy television sets and the new smart TVs. I do not see Roku surviving another ten years. You buy Roku hardware and then subscribe to "add-on" streaming services. Roku will morph into a streaming service. I'm not sure it has the capital to take on YouTube, AT&T, Amazon, Disney+, etc.
• Streaming à la carte: YouTube TV, Hulu, AT&T, others
• Proprietary but heavy content: Amazon
• Proprietary: Disney+; Warner Bros Discovery
  
• Add-ons: HBO Max, Netflix

My comments over at SeekingAlpha this morning:

Anyone paying attention will see that Amazon is quietly moving into Apple's space. AMZN is to streaming video what AAPL was years ago with streaming audio (iTunes) but AAPL has completely missed the streaming video train which left the station some years ago. Ten years from now, the streaming companies will all be doing very, very well, but these three will be the leaders: AMZN, YouTube TV, and AAPL TV+.

AMZN has more money than God. 

YouTube, owned by Google, has almost as much money, and already a much bigger streaming presence. 

AAPL: has completely missed this space. Exhibit A: Apple TV+. It's still being given away for free; has no content; and is running out of options. AMZN bought the last free-standing catalogue out there (MGM).

Where streaming needs to go: I assume some streaming companies are already there, but this is the next frontier: interactive. Almost all streaming is still passive -- sitting passively and watching content. Interactive:

• remote learning apps: example, Duolingo. Duolingo is free, ad-supported, or "plus" (annual subscription). I can imagine the "plus" edition being available through Hulu et al before it's all over;
• simulators: flight;
• gaming: poker