Lime Rock Resources With Three New Permits -- June 6, 2019

Missing oil. Where is it? Link at Bloomberg. 

U.S. Energy Information Administration data Wednesday showed a crude supply adjustment factor -- the difference between reported stockpiles and those implied by production, refinery demand, imports and exports -- of more than 800,000 barrels a day. While that doesn’t seem like that much, it’s added up to more than 24 million barrels over the past four weeks, and potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in trading opportunities.

Besides understating oil production, one of the culprits may be plant condensate associated with natural gas output, Merriam said. That plant condensate -- a natural gas liquid recovered and separated in processing plants -- can get blended into the crude oil stream.

While that supply is added into inventories, it’s not getting counted as crude production because it comes from the natural gas stream. As a result, crude stockpiles could rise without a commensurate increase in output.

In a research note on Wednesday, Macquarie Group Ltd. analysts suggested potential errors in net imports could be the culprit. The analysts added that May balances implied exceptionally strong production, which means U.S. oil output may be even higher than the 12.4 million barrel-a-day record in this week’s data -- a narrative that many bearish market participants believe. Rystad Energy AS said Thursday that its May data shows crude supply averaging 12.5 million.

Projection: from Rystad via oilprice --

Rystad Energy is raising its forecast for US crude output to 13.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by December 2019. For May 2019, our research and calculations point to crude oil production averaging 12.5 million bpd. Both are new all-time highs.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$52.67	6/6/2019	06/06/2018	06/06/2017	06/06/2016	06/06/2015
Active Rigs	65	60	52	26	82

Three new permits: 

• Operator: Lime Rock Resources III-A, L.P.
• Field: Murphy Creek (Dunn County)
• Comments: Lime Rock has permits for a 3-well Harland Rebsom pad in section 35-144-95, Murphy Creek oil field

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 34985, 1,409, XTO, Roxy 21X-6EXH, West Capa, t5/19; cum --;
• 34986, 1,592, XTO, Roxy 21X-6AXD, West Capa, t51/9; cum --;
• 34924, n/d, CLR, Collison 11-23H, Avoca, t--;  cum --;
• 35691, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 15X-17HSL, Elm Tree, t--; cum --;
• 33028, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 13-17H, Elm Tree, t--; cum --:
• 30645, n/d, CLR, Sorenson 9-16H1, Alkali Creek, t--; cum --;
• 35054, n/d, CLR, Rader 4-24HSL1, Avoca, t--; cum --;