Housing Starts -- November 19, 2019

Link here.

• prior: 1.256 million
• prior revised: 1.266 million
• forecast: 1.320 million
• actual: 1.314 million

The narrative:

Upward acceleration for residential investment is the indication from housing starts and permits.

October starts just missed Econoday's consensus but at a 1.314 million annual rate they are, outside of August's 1.391 million, the strongest showing since May last year.

Permits are the big positive in today's report, well above expectations at a 1.461 million rate which is the strongest since the subprime housing bubble in 2007.

Three-month averages for the key single-family category confirm the strength. Starts are running at a 923,000 rate on the average which is another 12-year high and up sharply over the last two months. Single-family permits are at an 888,000 rate which is likewise pivoting higher and also the strongest in 12 years.

Multi-family homes are further contributing to October's strength, up 8.6 percent for starts and 8.2 percent for permits. Another major plus in the report is a 10.3 percent surge in housing completions to a 1.256 million, offering immediate supply and a further boost to the new home market.

The housing sector broke out its year-and-a-half slump last quarter and looks to be breaking out further so far this quarter. Low mortgage rates and high levels of employment are two very strong positives for housing where emerging strength will help offset extending weakness in the global economy and domestic manufacturing.

This an incredible report.

I normally would not have posted this but I happened to catch Steve Liesman report these numbers on CNBC this morning. He seemed absolutely depressed. I've never seen him seem so "down," so depressed. My hunch: he was thinking this absolutely should not be happening under Trump.

It also explains why the market is down today.

Consensus outlook, from Econoday;

Starts and permits have been volatile month-to-month but have been showing accelerating trends for single-family homes.

Starts in October are expected to come in at a 1.320 million annual pace, sharply higher than September's 1.256 million. The consensus for permits is pointing to a slight decline, at 1.378 million versus 1.391 million in August (revised from an initial 1.386 million).

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Actions Have Consequences

My hunch: a lot of folks "voted" for "emission-free by '53" assuming that if it didn't work out, it could all be changed anyway. After, 2015 is decades away from 2053. What folks did not understand was once those "regulations" or "feel-good policies" were in place it would affect urban planning in the near term. People's exhibit A (Brookline, MA, bans new natural gas hook-ups):

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FedEx Closes Pension Plan To New Hires

Link here. 

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The Herb Page

For Arianna

Sage, rosemary, and thyme. Link.

Note that common sage and rosemary are of the same genus. 

Sage: Lamiaceae family

• common sage, Salvia officinalis,
• a member of the mint family, Lamiaceae, native to the Mediterranean region
• evergreen
• leaves are oblong
• lavender flowers, late spring, summer 
• taste: mild to slightly peppery with some touches of mint

Rosemary: Lamiaceae family

• Salvia rosmarinus (as of 2017)
• Rosmarinus officinalis (until 2017, now a synonym)
• a member of the mint family, Lamiaceae; native to the Mediterranean region
• evergreen, needle-like leaves
• flowers in spring and summer, but can be in constant bloom in warm climates
• has been know to flower as late as early December
• taste: a strong, even pungent, pine-like fragrance and flavor

Thyme: Lamiaceae family

• Thymus vulgaris
•  a member of the mint family, Lamiaceae, native to the Mediterranean region
• evergreen
• huge in French cooking
• importance in Middle Eastern cooking cannot be understated
• along with oregano and marjoram, it is a crucial element of za'atar
• za'atar: a condiment; Arabic for both thyme and marjoram
• za'atar: contains many of the essential oils found in thyme
• dried thyme is widely used in Armenia in tisanes (called urc) --  herbal teas