Connecting The Dots And A Visit To A Fortune Teller -- January 4, 2022

On the CNBC crawler that caught my attention:

• NASDAQ: down 300 points
• UNP: up $5.50
• SRE: up $3.50
• CVX: up $2.25

So, what's going on?

I was talking to an extended family member last night with regard to automobiles. His wife just bought a new car, and he's looking to buy a new pickup truck, but will probably have to wait until next year. He's quite "negative" when it comes to Big Auto -- he thinks they're all crooks -- LOL -- but that's neither here nor there. Actually I guess it's "there" because he doesn't live in Texas. But I digress.

I told him that I suspect that six months from now the "dam will break" and there will be such a huge supply of automobiles and trucks there will be no problem finding the truck he wants. I'm not convinced prices will come down all that much but the supply will be incredible. He doubted me, but I know I'm correct. The tea leaves have told me that. And that also means a lot of used cars will also end up on the market.

And late 2022, and going into 2023, we're going to see the same thing with EVs. No less than thirty-seven auto manufacturers will be bringing EVs to market and they've all said they will start to bring those cars to market NLT 2023. So, "NLT 2023" begins in 2022. Perhaps late 2022.

Our discussion then turned to the NFL.

What I did not mention in that telephone conversation last night was that all those cars coming to market will get there by rail. 

That explains UNP. 

Everything else sort of makes sense. Utilities being driven by inflation fears. Big Oil being driven by price of crude oil and OPEC's "inshallah" production policy announced today. 

NASDAQ down 300 points; Dow up 300 points. Karma. Or as they say on CNBC, sector rotation. 

Oh, back to UNP. One wonders if coal shipments to west coast to export to Asia might also be driving UNP. I don't know. Maybe I should do some due diligence, or as they tweet, I should DSDD.

On my way to DSDD I checked in on Berkshire Hathaway. BRK-B is up $7.21. Whoo-hoo.

Rambling: 

Covid is knocking out a lot of folks. Airline operations have even come to a stop on occasion because note enough workers have shown up.

Question: how many folks directly involved with a commercial aircraft in mid-flight. Generally, NLT than six.

Question: how many engineers directly involved with a 110-car unit train mid-trip? Two.  

The talking head on CNBC who I like most (not Jim Cramer), his top picks for 2022: pending. I may have missed his picks. Maybe tomorrow.

The talking head on CNBC who I like second most (not Jim Cramer),  her top picks for 2022:

• BofA: most leveraged to interest rates; not her largest bank holdings; two other banks, including Wells Fargo is a larger holding than BofA
  
• Wynn Resorts: down 37% from its highs; end of pandemic; size and scale;
  
• IBM: well managed; new management team; new CEO; selling some assets; re-positioning; huge cloud guy as CEO; nobody wants this stock; no one knows what they do any more; $40 billion in cash; 14x earnings;

Final picks from Fast Money Halftime Report (the hour that is my third favorite on CNBC; midday), one each from four panelists:

• GE
• Freeport-Mcmoran: best play, bar none, for electric infrastructure buildout
  
• Marathon Petroleum:
  
• Berkshire Hathaway B: the breakout is real; confirmation today.
  

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Interlude

One of the "things" that has really helped me over the years is visiting a fortune teller -- big in Louisiana and San Antonio, TX -- when faced with major life decisions. 

The other day my wife and I were discussing estate planning. And, of course, you know what happened next. We went into downtown Dallas to visit Madame Whoo-Hoo.

She directed her crystal ball vision to my wife:

“You need to prepare yourself to become a widow. Your husband will be murdered in a manner most gruesome before the year is done.”

My wife's response: “Will I be acquitted?”