Notes From All Over -- December 12, 2021

More QE? Brandon, just like Donald Trump, will force Jay Powell's hand. This is absolutely fascinating. Josh Young, who initiated the tweet, is, in my mind, as credible as Tyler Durden: in other words, whether you like him or not, whether he is credible or not (think Rush Limbaugh) you have to listen to him. I think 2022 is going to be absolutely fascinating for investors, and if Josh Young is correct, it's only going to get better for investors, which seems hard to believe -- that it could get any better. The Feds are flush with cash, pulling in record amounts of revenue ("taxes") and although the debt / deficit are worsening, the debt limit was raised with nary an op-ed, and .... it's the mid-terms! But spend some time on the linked tweet and the comments it generated. Maybe one for the archives. 

EVs: tracked here / here and this morning's updates here. The latter link will take you to two of the most exciting EV developments in the past two or three days, as reported by The WSJ: Daimler Truck and a review of the Rivian R1T. From Investor's Business Daily, top five EV manufacturers, and all the rest.

Next up, the Permian: thoughts on crude oil. Again, same rabbit hole. This morning's update here. Sheffield concerned about the high price of oil; and, TTE as an investment?

Graphs: the most interesting graphic so far today. I just wish more dots would have been labeled. From The WSJ. Pay particular attention to the quadrant in which Berkshire Hathaway sits -- that corroborates my thinking regarding Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger for the past five years. Their investment strategy: buying back shares in their own company because they can't find other companies they consider more valuable then their own. Talk about falling in love with a stock. Be careful with this graph: sector III is the worst sector in which to be sitting. The best sector? Sector I. At least I think I have that right.

Covid-19:

• record number of vaccinations being given in the US; rate of increase quite astounding, considering;
• link here.
• omicron: a dud? what's next?
• the big vaccine pivot: this is an incredible story from The WSJ and provides, again, another example of how investors can do well -- or at least make rational (and I use the word loosely) decisions
• Merck faltered coming up with its own vaccine;
• how to respond: partner with Pfizer to make Pfizer's vaccine: wow
• do vaccines and lock downs help? Austria thinks so. From The WSJ: "Covid-19 measures and a looming general vaccine mandate are persuading more to take the shot as Omicron spread. Time to flatten the curve, apparently, but look how long it's taking to get started:

Austria, one of the worst-hit countries in Europe’s latest Covid-19 surge, has seen infections plummet and vaccination rates soar after imposing a lockdown and saying it would make the shots mandatory next year.

The measures, and the steep fall in new cases since they were announced, could offer some options to countries in a region where infections are still rising rapidly or plateauing at a high level.

The Alpine republic introduced a lockdown and said it would mandate vaccines beginning next February, 2022, on November 22, 2021, when the weekly rolling average of daily new cases exceeded 1,500 and hospitals in areas with low vaccination rates were struggling to cope with the influx of patients.

• From what I've read, the issue is not deaths, it's hospitalizations. If accurate, it's all about "flattening the curve." But look at that, something I missed earlier: the "mandate" was announced in November, but won't begin until next February. Probably a combination of politics, logistics, and availability of vaccine.

NFL today: I wanted to put this at the top, but the Josh Young tweet was way too important to get buried. so the "NFL Today" will have to go down here. Dallas vs the Washington Team at noon! Wow, some other great match-ups today, also.

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Olivia and Soccer

FC Dallas, for whom Olivia plays, finished first in their bracket at "regionals" / "quarter-finals" / "semi-finals" in Orlando, Florida, this weekend. They just completed their third and last game. They won their first two games; I was never told how they did in the third game because it doesn't matter. We don't even know who they played! But by finishing first in their bracket, if they "do well" in the second half of this tournament to be held in Arizona in March, 2022, they go to the National tournament in June / July time frame. 

This is an interesting phenomenon. It is simply not about winning / losing games. Points are given for wins and ties; for number of goals scored; number of goals the opponent scores, etc. And at the end of the day, although the teams want to win (for obvious reasons) and especially for the coach whose reputation rests with wins/losses, these are "showcase" games for the players. College and professional scouts are looking for recruits. 

This is where it starts getting serious: tenth grade, high school sophomores. College scouts were out watching recruits as early as middle school, but now, next year, their junior year, the players will start getting "offers."  Offers include full scholarships at Ivy League schools and west coast schools like Stanford.

Olivia says she will not play soccer in college; it's all about academics. But, once it sinks in that NCAA athletes are allowed to "cash in" and still maintain amateur status, she may re-think. LOL. 

s/A bragging grandfather.

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Corky

By the way, Corky is back from vacation and joined us for sushi last night.