Occidental's Enhanced Oil Recovery In The Permian -- March 31, 2016

In this update of the Permian, Occidental's enhanced oil recovery was highlighted. Some background from DrillingInfo:

In a conventional reservoir drilled with conventional methods, the expected initial extraction rate of available hydrocarbons maybe as much as 15% – leaving 85+% of hydrocarbons in the reservoir. Pump jacks and initial gas injection or thermal recovery can increase that capture to the 25-30% range. By applying EOR techniques you can extract another 10-15% of the initially available hydrocarbons.

Occidental has been a leader in CO2 flooding in the Permian basin for a number of years, and a number of other big names are involved in Permian EOR.

The Midland Reporter-Telegram reports, back in August, 2014:

Occidental Petroleum this week held a groundbreaking ceremony for its 212,000 square foot Midland Office Complex, now under construction at 6001 Deauville as the first building in the Energy Plaza at Westridge Park.

From an interview reported by that outlet:

Q: Occidental recently spun off its California business, saying it can now focus more on its Texas operations as well as the Middle East and Colombia.  What exactly does this mean for Occidental’s Permian Basin operations?

A: Occidental Petroleum plans to spin off its wholly owned subsidiary, California Resources Corporation, in the fourth quarter of 2014.
The Permian Basin is home to our principal asset, where we have been operating and producing for more than 30 years. Occidental has more than 5 million gross acres with over 12,000 Oxy-operated gross oil and gas wells in the Permian Basin, and we produce from every producible formation here.
Occidental is also the largest operator and largest producer of oil in the Permian Basin thanks to our successful EOR business and continued focus on our unconventional development, which is well positioned to deliver long-term growth. 

Q: What unconventional plays in the Permian Basin is Occidental active in and what emerging plays is the company looking at?

A: We are active at South Curtis Ranch in the Midland Basin, in the Delaware Basin, and in the Wolfcamp A and B benches. We are also transitioning to accelerated development in Barilla Draw.

Q: Occidental has long been one of the Permian Basin’s leading producers and a major operator of tertiary recovery projects. How have the recent shale plays in this region affected those CO2 projects, or have they?

A: Occidental’s recent shale plays have not impacted our CO2 operations. We believe our enhanced oil recovery (EOR) from CO2 will be an ongoing source of cash generation for our unconventional drilling operations. We are applying more than 30 years of experience in CO2 EOR in the Permian Basin in support of our unconventional opportunities. This is a significant competitive advantage for Occidental in our Permian production.

In 2013, Oxy injected more than 650 billion cubic feet of CO2 into oil reservoirs in the Permian. Occidental operates 31 active CO2 projects in the Crossett, Slaughter Field, Welch & Cedar Lake, Wasson Field, Canyon Reef and other areas. We have seen CO2 flooding increase ultimate oil recovery by 10 to 25 percent where applied. Much of our success is due to extensive automation to maximize throughput performance. In recent years, we added a CO2 plant control center, electronic wellhead shutdown devices, an injection distribution system and other features.

Update On Buffett - OXY -- August 21, 2022

For background, see this post.

Now, the most recent update from The WSJ.  

The WSJ articles alidates / corroborates my thoughts, as previously posted, but also provides insight into the additional reasons why Buffett sought permission for 50% ownership.  

From the article:

• Analysts have said Occidental’s oil business would complement Berkshire’s existing energy holdings, which include utilities, natural gas and renewables. 
• Mr. Buffett has a warm relationship with Chief Executive Vicki Hollub and has publicly praised her efforts to turn the company around after its acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and her plans to pay down debt and increase dividend payouts.
• But Mr. Buffett hasn’t informed Occidental of any plans to acquire a controlling stake in the company, according to people close to the matter. 
• Given Mr. Buffett’s well-known aversion to hostile deal making, it would be out of character for him to make a bid without sounding out the company’s executives and directors first.
• Holdings in OXY:
• Filings show Berkshire currently has a 20% stake in Occidental. It also has warrants to purchase another 83.9 million common shares and 100,000 shares of preferred stock that pay a hefty dividend—both of which it acquired after helping Occidental finance its 2019 acquisition of Anadarko.
• Outstanding OXY shares: 931.49 million, currently. 
• Occidental Petroleum 2021 shares outstanding were 0.959B, a 4.36% increase from 2020.
• Occidental Petroleum 2020 shares outstanding were 0.919B, a 13.49% increase from 2019.
• Occidental Petroleum 2019 shares outstanding were 0.81B, a 6.05% increase from 2018.
  
• If Berkshire were to exercise the warrants, its stake would rise to roughly 27%. That would have exceeded the 25% limit FERC allowed for before Friday’s ruling. 
• Taxes could also play a role in Mr. Buffett’s bid for a bigger minority stake in Occidental. Corporations with a stake of at least 20% in another company are eligible to deduct 65% of dividends received, up from the standard 50%. 
• Berkshire’s 20% stake also allows it to include a proportionate share of Occidental’s earnings in its own results. That could give its earnings a multibillion-dollar boost annually, based on analyst estimates of Occidental’s earnings. Before the most recent purchases, disclosed this month, Occidental fell below the 20% threshold for both benefits. 
• Since Berkshire started buying Occidental shares in February, 2022, Mr. Buffett has had a friendly and collaborative relationship with Ms. Hollub, and the pair speak regularly, according to people familiar with the matter. When Mr. Buffett bought another slug of Occidental shares this spring, he called Ms. Hollub to let her know about the transaction, according to one of the people. Ms. Hollub was driving at the time and pulled over to take the call, the person said.

OXY Spin-Off; Headquarters Moving To Texas; Leaving California; OXY To Shed Assets "From North Dakota To The Persian Gulf"

Updates

February 15, 2014: OXY USA trying to put a positive spin on the new company they will spin off to develop the Monterey shale in California. Bloomberg is reporting: 

Occidental Petroleum Corp., the largest oil producer in the continental U.S., will split its operations in California into a separate publicly traded company in one of the final steps of a breakup plan. The new California company will be the biggest oil and natural gas acreage holder in the state with about 2.3 million net acres, Los Angeles-based Occidental said today in a statement.

[The new company] will have 8,000 employees and contractors and will establish its headquarters in the state.

“Creating two separate energy companies will result in more focused businesses that will be competitive industry leaders,” Chief Executive Officer Stephen Chazen said in the statement.

Chazen is targeting asset sales from North Dakota to the Persian Gulf to focus on Occidental’s most profitable operations after lackluster returns in 2011 and 2012. The California company could be worth as much as $19 billion and carry as much as $5 billion of debt, Tudor Pickering Holt & Co. analysts wrote today in a note to clients. The assets being spun off represent about 20 percent of total production.  

The new company will be more aggressive:

The company produces the equivalent of 154,000 barrels of oil and natural gas a day in the state and its operations there generated revenue of $4.3 billion last year with $1.7 billion of capital expenditure. Occidental plans to boost spending and debt at the California company, operating more as a traditional high-growth explorer, Leo Mariani, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets in Austin, Texas, wrote today in a note to clients. 

But, it is not going to be easy, from a companion article at Bloomberg:

“No one has found the secret sauce yet to the Monterey,” said David Hackett, president of Stillwater Associates, an energy consulting firm in the state. ’’Occidental is working hard at it, but they don’t understand it well enough to make it perform like everybody hopes it will.’’ 

“Historically, California has been a ‘hard to grow’ asset and suffers from severe regulatory constraints,” a factor that could weigh on how investors value the new company, Mariani said. The potential of the Monterey has been questioned by executives including Chevron Corp.’s John Watson and Continental Resources Inc.’s Harold Hamm. 

Also the environmental backlash, from the second Bloomberg article link:

Environmental groups concerned about the possibility of an oil renaissance are lobbying legislators and organizing protests against development. A federal judge in April ruled that the U.S. Bureau of Land Management violated the law by failing to sufficiently study the impact of fracking on the environment.

“If we go in the direction of North Dakota, the consequences for California would be devastating,” said Patrick Sullivan, a spokesman for the Center for Biological Diversity, which sued to invalidate government lease sales for drilling. ’’We’re determined to protect water, wildlife and public health.’’

Despite the obstacles, state oil production surged in February to the highest seasonal level in three years, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data through November. Output climbed 13,000 barrels a day in the first 11 months of 2013 and rose 4,000 in 2012, marking the first annual rise since 1998.

Occidental plans to drill more than 1,000 wells in 2014, a 36 percent increase from 2013 that will help increase oil production by 11 percent, a growth rate that rivals some of the best onshore drillers. More than 10 percent of those wells will be in layers of shale rock, according to a Jan. 30 company presentation.

Original Post

 

This is a huge, huge story - I can't remember if I mentioned whether it was OXY or CVX or COP that the tea leaves suggested to me one of the three would be leaving California. I think I was thinking Chevron, but .... I digress. [Yes, based on this posting, I always thought Chevron would be the first of the three to leave California.]

The bigger story is just that: Rick Perry has done a great job enticing California companies to move (in some cases, back) to Texas.

Don sent me the link. I would not have seen it until later. This was worth waiting for. I was just getting to wrap it up for the day.

Reuters is reporting:

Occidental Petroleum Corp said it would spin off its oil and gas assets in California into a separately traded company and move its headquarters from Los Angeles to Houston, where it will be closer to its largest U.S. operations.

Occidental did not provide a valuation for the California business, but analysts at investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co said it could be worth up to $19 billion. Analysts at Credit Suisse valued the unit at about $22 billion in October.

"Creating two separate energy companies will result in more focused businesses that will be competitive industry leaders," Chief Executive Stephen Chazen said on Friday.

Occidental, whose shares were up 3 percent at midday, said the California unit generated a pre-tax profit of about $1.5 billion in 2013.

The fruits and nuts hate Big Oil.

The California geology for fracking is very, very problematic.

The water for fracking is even more problematic.

OXY's Bakken wells, by the way, have been getting better and better. With all this restructuring, it seems this would have been a great time for OXY to sell off its Bakken assets if it were planning to do so. The tea leaves suggest to me that OXY is staying in the Bakken, but tea leaves have been known to be misinterpreted, even by the best readers.

I believe OXY has a huge play in the Eagle Ford. Have to look up some of this stuff later.

****************************

Video: the one who got away. 

The One That Got Away, Devil Doll

A man's gotta do, what a man's gotta do. It doesn't matter what you say.

April 22, 2019 -- Monday Morning Market

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Bakken: reporting some nice wells this morning.

WatchList: looks great.

JAG: see disclaimer above. One of my favorite to watch on the watchlist. [Again, as stated earlier, the watch list is simply that -- equities I enjoy watching, but do not invest in many of them.]

Measles: continues to surge. Was once eradicated in the US. Does public health matter any more? Last time the numbers were this high? Twenty-five years ago.

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Something To Think About

I never thought I would say this after its performance in the Bakken, but Occidental Petroleum (OXY) looks exciting. I thought about that last week -- was a little late in acting -- but this morning's news suggests those [investors and traders, in this case] who bought OXY last week might have done well.

From its website:

For investors: what's the most interesting thing about the chart above? Hint: look at the arrow. Despite a huge -- and, I mean, huge -- drop in net income in 2015, the company raised its dividend.

What I'm most interested in with regard to OXY is "heavy oil."

So, let's check.

OXY says it has operations in three areas: the US, the Mideast, and Latin America. In fact, its production from Latin America is so small one can ignore LA. OXY gets two-thirds of its production from the US and one-third from the Mideast. A nice mix.

Now, the US --

Permian unconventional:

• 1.4 million net acres
• 17-yr inventory with less than a $50 WTI breakeven
• 20 of top 50 wells in the Permian
• drilled less than 5% of hz wells in the Permian but has 40% of the top 50 wells
• unconventional EOR a commercial success

Permian conventional:

• 1.1 million net acres

Other:

• "sector-leading dividend, with consecutive growth"
• OxyChem and Midstream generated highest earnings over 20 years
• $3.0 billion cash balance
• Occidental no longer owns any shares of California Resources common stock
• President and CEO: Vicki Hollub.

Vicki Hollub (born 1960) is an American businesswoman and mineral engineer. She has been the president and CEO of Occidental Petroleum since April 2016, when she became the first woman heading a major American oil company.

In 2005, Hollub became involved in leading Occidental's expansion in the Permian Basin  in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. She was manager of operations for Occidental's Permian business from 2009 until 2011, before being promoted to president and general manager from 2011 until 2012.

Under Hollub, Occidental cut production costs in response to falling crude prices but decided not to lay off employees.

The company focused on existing core operations in the Middle East, the United States, and Colombia in Latin America, while continuing to sell low-yield fields in Iraq, Libya, Yemen, North Dakota, Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma.

Hollub placed "particular emphasis" on developing the Permian Basin in the southern United States, which had been a consistent driver of profits.

Half of Occidental's output was coming from the Permian Basin by July 2017, while the other half came from Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Colombia.

At that time, Forbes wrote that Hollub's focus on high-producing oil fields had made Occidental "leaner" and "poised to gusher cash for the next half-century."

Did Anyone Catch This? April 14, 2019

Long-term followers of the Bakken book know that Occidental once had a fairly large footprint in the Bakken. See "Bakken operators." At that link:

OXY

• October, 2015: announced; sold 300,000 Bakken acres for $500 million to Lime Rock Resources; 346 wells transferred, more than any other company in 2015;
• October, 2014: shopping its 335,000 Bakken acres for $3 billion
• January, 2013: Director, NDIC, says Burke County is edge of the Bakken; said major operator in Burke likely to pull out (in Burke County: OXY USA, Oasis, CLR, Cornerstone) 
• 2Q12 conference call: CEO did not know for sure, but thought it was 300,000+ net acres in the Bakken
• 277,000 net acres at end of 2011; 200,000 net acres earlier in 2011;
  
• Occidental bought Anschutz Bakken acreage in late 2010 (180,000)
• Prior to the acquisition, held 20,000 acres (by my reckoning -- I could be wrong) 
• Anonymous says OXY has two dedicated frack spreads
• 15 rigs, January, 2012; 13 rigs, February, 2012, but company says it expects to have 6 rigs by end of 2012; so this must be company-owned rigs vs contracted rigs? 

I noted early on that despite being in some of the best, Tier 1, acreage, Oxy never seemed to be able to get it together in the Bakken. And OXY left.

I tracked OXY wells at this post -- I think I "captured" almost every one of OXY's wells in the Bakken. Very few, if any, were impressive.

Hold that thought.

Re-posting from the other day, regarding Chevron's move to buy Anadarko:

*****************************

Spoiler? OXY?

From same linked article:

Occidental Petroleum Corp. made a $70-per-share offer for Anadarko, according to a person familiar with the matter. But the deal would have been tougher for Occidental to pull off than for Chevron given its smaller size and narrower range of upstream expertise, potentially dragging down its share price.

 In case you missed it, this time in red, bold:

But the deal would have been tougher for Occidental to pull off than for Chevron given its smaller size and narrower range of upstream expertise.

It is interesting to track OXY through the "Bakken filter": https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/search?q=occidental.

Buffett -- OXY -- Update -- September 12, 2022

Buffett -- OXY tracked here.

Occidental Petroleum shares jumped higher Monday after billionaire investor Warren Buffett added to both his stake in the oil major and speculation that he may be preparing to buy at least half of its outstanding stock. 

Buffett boosted his holding in Occidental, which he has been adding to for most of the year, to 26.8%, according to Securities & Exchange Commission filings from late last week, after buying an additional 51.99 million shares. The move came shortly after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) said in late August that Berkshire Hathaway's additional investment in Occidental was "consistent with the public interest", giving Buffett the nod to purchase "up to 50%" of the oil major's common shares.

September 11, 2022: IBD repeats the story. Link here. 

Berkshire Hathaway now owns 26.8% of Occidental Petroleum, according to a regulatory filing Friday night, September 9, 2022. 

That came exactly one month after Warren Buffett's firm disclosed its OXY stock stake had reached 20.2%. Crossing the 20% ownership level means Berkshire Hathaway can record Occidental earnings on its books.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has given Berkshire Hathaway permission to buy up to 50% of Occidental Petroleum. That's according to an order made public on August 19, 2022. Berkshire made the request on July 11, 2022.

Original Post 

Link here.

There is some question whether this article is "exactly" accurate. It depends on the definition of "stake" -- actual or potential -- "actual ownership" or "actual ownership plus warrants."

See this thread to see where disagreement exists.

Could Be Rough Day Tomorrow For OXY -- August 10, 2020

 OXY posts $6.6 billion charge after price crash, Bloomberg.

OXY shares up about a dollar today during normal trading hours, then dropped a dollar after hours. From the linked article:

Occidental Petroleum Corp. reported a $6.6 billion writedown in the second quarter, equivalent to more than 40% of its market value, as the collapse in energy prices took its toll on the debt-laden U.S. shale oil producer.

More than two-thirds of the impairment was to account for the lower value of its domestic onshore acreage, with the remainder in the Gulf of Mexico and overseas, the Houston-based company said Monday in a statement. The shares plunged as much 6.8% in after-market trading in New York.

Occidental is not alone is taking large impairments after the Covid-19 pandemic crushed demand for petroleum around the world, but its writedown is one of the biggest relative to its size. Though the charges don’t affect near-term cash flows, they increase certain leverage ratios, potentially pushing up borrowing costs for the oil producer.

Earnings report:

Excluding the writedowns, Occidental made an adjusted loss of $1.76 a share, worse than the average $1.68 estimated by analysts in a Bloomberg survey. 

Production came in at the high-end of Occidental’s guidance, at the equivalent of 1.41 million barrels of oil a day, boosted by output from the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico.

Earnings report from Zacks:

Occidental Petroleum came out with a quarterly loss of $1.76 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.66. This compares to earnings of $0.97 per share a year ago. 

These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -6.02%. 

A quarter ago, it was expected that this oil and gas exploration and production company would post a loss of $0.50 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.52, delivering a surprise of -4%. 

Over the last four quarters, the company has not been able to surpass consensus EPS estimates. Occidental posted revenues of $2.98 billion for the quarter ended June 2020, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 23.57%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $4.48 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.

Idle Chatter Regarding OXY USA

With the ongoing discussion of OXY USA, this might be a good time to look back at two articles. I don't remember if I posted the first article, and I know I didn't understand the ramifications of the second article.

First, this article from SeekingAlpha, October 16, 2013:

Occidental thrives on its expertise in extracting oil out of declining oil fields by using carbon dioxide injection. In fact, carbon dioxide EOR is its most profitable business, and approximately 60% of its oil production in the Permian basin is from implementing these projects. Occidental is an industry leader in applying this technology, and it is one of the largest injectors of carbon dioxide for EOR in the U.S. Additionally, the company is a leading player in the Permian basin, where it is the largest operator with a net acreage of 2.5 million. The entire Permian basin accounts for 15% of the total U.S. oil production, and Occidental contributes 16% of the overall Permian oil production.

The Permian basin produced close to 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent, or BOE, per day in the first six months of this year. Occidental produced more than 20 million BOE in this period, riding on its EOR technique. Permian is expected to reach 1.4 million BOE per day by the end of 2013 and 2 million BOE per day in the next five years. It is expected that the average domestic oil production for Occidental in the second half of 2013 will be 6000 to 8000 BOE per day, which is about 3% more than the production in the first half. The Permian basin will be a significant contributor to this growth. This indicates the growth potential that exists for Occidental going forward.

If you are interested in carbon dioxide EOR, look at Denbury.

Then, this post. Again, I don't know if this has any relevance to the discussion but whenever the Obama administration says "something, anything" is not a hazardous waste, one has to pay attention:

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) yesterday issued a final rule that exempts CO2 injected underground from hazardous waste regulations, a step the agency said would help ensure “safe and effective deployment” of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. 

And for those curious about OXY's plans for the Bakken as articulated in their 3Q13 earnings conference call, the transcript is very, very enlightening. If you go to the link, open it (all 11 pages) as a single page, and then search "Bakken." Yes, it is mentioned only in the Q&A. You can see how incredibly excited OXY is about the biggest shale play in the US. LOL.

An Easter egg can be found at the OXY page on the blog.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or what you think you may have read here. 

Alexa: Pay For Gas; WPX With Six New Permits In The Bakken -- January 6, 2020

War? What war?

• Dow could finish in the green by the end of the day, after opening more than 200 points in the red
• both NASDAQ and S&P 500 could close at all-time highs
• Google hit an all-time high today
• AAPL trading near its all-time high

War? What war? Over at twitter, The Washington Post reports that the Pentagon has ordered amphibian forces to prepare to support Mideast operations. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Twitter: it is being reported that "the US Army" has notified Iraq that it is preparing "to move out." Iraqi prime minister says its time for US to move out. If this is all accurate, this would be huge, and a huge politically-correct move by President Trump. Bringing the troops home, keeping another campaign promise.

Bismarck Tribune: refers to those attacking/burning the US embassy in Iraq as "mourners." Over at twitter today. 

OXY: to cut debt with pipeline split. Link over at Bloomberg --

Occidental Petroleum Corp. plans to make the pipeline business it acquired as part of last year’s takeover of Anadarko Petroleum Corp. a stand-alone company, removing about $7.8 billion of debt from its balance sheet.

Occidental plans to reduce its holdings in Western Midstream Partners to less than 50% by the end of this year but “expects to maintain a significant economic interest” in the company, the Houston-based oil explorer said in a statement Monday.

The amount of debt taken off the balance sheet amounts to about 15% of Occidental’s total borrowings.

Western is among the crown jewel assets that Occidental has sought to sell to reduce leverage incurred in the purchase of Anadarko, the biggest oil merger of the past four years.

Monday’s announcement may signal Occidental hasn’t been able to attract a high enough price, or that potential suitors found the entangled management structure burdensome.

OXY shares: as low as $37.50 within the last month or so; now slightly over $45.

CVX: Chevron is evacuating its non-Iraqi employees from Iraq. 

Exxon partners with Alexa, link here, pretty amazing:

Later this year, motorists whose vehicles are equipped with Amazon’s Echo Auto and other Alexa virtual assistant-enabled mobility devices will be able to pay for fuel at more than 11,500 Exxon- and Mobil-branded stations in the United States.

Exxon Mobil Corp. and the payments and financial technology firm Fiserv, Inc. reported that motorists with the devices will be able to say, “Alexa, pay for gas” at the pump once the new offering becomes available at retail outlets.

After Alexa confirms the station location and pump number, Fiserv will activate the pump and facilitate token generation to help ensure a secure payment experience, the companies noted in a joint written statement Monday.

“Transactions will be processed using Amazon Pay, allowing consumers to securely use the payment information stored in their Amazon account, and powered by digital commerce technology from Fiserv,” ExxonMobil and Fiserv stated, adding that no additional sign-up or separate Amazon account is necessary.

*************************************

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$63.23	1/6/2020	01/06/2019	01/06/2018	01/06/2017	01/06/2016
Active Rigs	56	63	54	39	57

Six new permits, #37304 - #37309, inclusive:

• Operator: WPX
• Fields: Spotted Horn (McKenzie County), Squaw Creek (McKenzie County)
• Comments:
• WPX has permits for a 5-well Crosby Chase pad in Spotted Horn, section 3-150-94;
• WPX has a permit for an Omaha Woman well in Squaw Creek, section 25-149-95

Eleven permits renewed:

• Equinor (6): five Pyramid permits in Williams County; one Hawkeye permit in Williams County;
• EOG (4): four Clarks Creek permits, McKenzie County
• Whiting: one Wold permit in McKenzie County

Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 31573, 1,855, Equinor, Samson 29-32F XE 1TFH, Banks, t6/19; cum 91K 11/19; a 25K month;
• 31360, 1,816, Equinor, Samson 29-32 8TFH, Banks, t7/19; cum 33K 11/19; a 15K month;
• 31572, 814, Equinor, Samson 29-32 7H, Banks, t6/19; cum --;
• 31362, 2,053, Equinor, Samson 29-32 6H, Banks, t7/19; cum 64K 11/19; a 31K month;
• 31364, 2,092, Equinor, Samson 29-32 5TFH, Banks, t7/19; cum 48K 11/19; a 23K month;
• 31359, 868, Equinor, Samson 29-32 1H-R, Banks, t7/19; cum 27K 11/19; a 10K month;
• 34673, 707, Equinor, Jarold 25-36 XW 1TFH, Todd, t9/19; cum 15K 11/19; no full month of production yet;
• 34683, 369, Equinor, Jarold 25-36 8TFH, Todd, t11/19; cum --;
• 34681, 584, Equinor, Jarold 25-36 7H, Todd, t11/19; cum --;

More on the Samson 1H-R well, #31359:

• back in September, 2017, the operator requested approval to temporarily abandon this well, pending improved economics, etc; this was one of 26 Equinor wells that were tagged as "non-completed wells in abandoned status";
• then, one year later, September, 2018, the operator requested to extend temporary abandonment of this well for yet another year, with plans to complete this well in 2019
• the well was spud March 28, 2016
• TD: July 4, 2016
• TD: 21,253' MD; 11,018.69' TVD
• middle Bakken
• vertical drilled in 79.9 drilling hours in four runs (slightly more than 3 24-hour days)
• curve was drilled in 10 drilling hours
• lateral begun at 22:53 on June 30, 2016; drilled in 53 drilling hours (slightly more than 2 24-hour days)
• middle Bakken was 11' high to prognosis;
• drill rates: ranged from 22 to 280 ft/hour
• gas: between 195 and 3,282 units
• lateral was 100% in zone
• permit: Samson 29-32 #1H-R; 1280-acre spacing
• I only looked at a few of these wells in this immediate area and none of them were remarkable

Pipeline: The New Reality In The US -- Americans Don't Like Pipelines -- July 25, 2018

Updates

August 9, 2018: Buffett missed a huge opportunity. OXY found a buyer.

• two asset sales to EnCap Flatrock Midstream portfolio companies for about $2.6 billion.
• liquids terminaling and logistics provider Moda Midstream LLC entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the Oxy Ingleside Energy Center and certain crude oil and LPG infrastructure. 
• Lotus Midstream LLC agreed to acquire Oxy’s Centurion pipeline system and a Southeast New Mexico crude oil gathering system. Both transactions are expected to close in third-quarter 2018. 

See my original post. I think OXY was looking for $5 billion. I suggested that Centurion alone was worth $2.9 billion. Buyers got the whole enchilada for $2.6 billion. Wow.

Original Post 

Reuters via Yahoo!Finance has this story: OXY -- Occidental Petroleum may be looking to sell its pipeline assets -- ostensibly to raise cash for E & P but reading between the lines, operators are simply getting tired of the whole business. I've been blogging about the Keystone XL since at least 2012 when it became clear that President Obama intended to kill the project. Since then, update after update after update. Today, we get news that the Nebraska Supreme Court says it will "expedite" oral arguments. Charles Dickens wrote about the British legal quagmire where court cases dragged on for generations. As Pogo said, we've met the enemy and the enemy is us. Whether Pogo was the first to note that is debatable; probably not.

But I digress.

From the linked article:

Occidental's decision to shed the assets is the latest example of an oil company balking at the capital expenditure required to maintain U.S. pipelines, which have been plagued by bottlenecks and require construction of new networks.

Hess Corp and Oasis Petroleum Inc are among the companies that have sold or spun off pipelines in the past year, looking to take advantage of high valuations for these assets, which have been buoyed by the capacity constrains.

Occidental's midstream assets include a major U.S. crude pipeline, a stake in a gas pipeline in the Middle East, a crude export terminal in Texas, and the Centurion Pipeline, a 2,900 mile line carrying crude from the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico to Cushing, Oklahoma.

A year ago, Occidental tried to find a buyer for its 50 percent stake in its Ingleside Energy Center, a crude oil storage and export terminal in Corpus Christi, Texas. That sale process was not completed, and Occidental is including the facility in its package of midstream assets.

Much more at the link. 

Warren Buffett likes:

• energy
• sectors that require huge CAPEX -- huge tax advantages
• industries with huge moats
• to wait for the right moment to buy

Berkshire Hathaway:

• market cap: almost $500 billion
• income from continuing operations: $45 billion
• total cash: $102 billion
• total debt: $99 billion
• how much does OXY want for its premier pipeline assets? $5 billion
• shoot -- the Centurion Pipeline -- 30-second elevator speech -- at a million dollars a mile, that pipeline alone is worth $2.9 billion; LOL
• perspective: Trudeau bought the current Trans Mountain Pipeline assets for $4.7 billion; it will cost an estimated $7.4 billion more to complete the expansion project

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there are bound to be factual and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. Also, I make a lot of simple arithmetic errors.

*********************************

The Book Page

I've often wondered why the Brits (for the most part the English and the Scots) had such an incredible effect/impact on the world.

Something I've never seen discussed in this context is the English system of inheritance: primogeniture.

I'm currently reading A. N. Wilson's landmark opus The Victorians, c. 2003. I said the other day I have no more shelf space and won't be buying any more books. I have made my first exception. This is an incredibly good book, but wow, I have to read it slowly. After four days of reading it, I've finally gotten into the book's rhythm.

It was while reading this book -- and I've read a lot of books about Great Britain, England, and Scotland, and have spent many years in England and along the Scottish border -- that it finally dawned on me what is likely the main reason for England's impact on the world.

The unique Lamarckian trait among the Turks: traders and multilingualism. The English and Scots: explorers.

[Hungarians, by the way, are probably descendants of an extra-terrestrial alien society far more advanced than any on earth. But I digress.]

To me, it's simply incredible, the concept of primogeniture. For most of history, XY primogeniture -- women were not even "considered." With primogeniture, the title, the estate, the family name, everything goes to the first born (and even that isn't quite correct, but it will due for now).

Taken to its extreme, and apparently it was until recent times, the first born English male inherited everything. His brothers and sisters got nothing, or were at a minimum dependent on the largess of their oldest brother.

Essentially, under primogeniture, everyone is disinherited except for the first-born male. The females would survive only by marrying "well." The disinherited brothers had two options. The first option: marry "well" but since they had nothing with which to begin, they were not, as a rule, highly sought-after bachelors. The second option: leave home, and seek their own fortunes.

It's simply incredible to read the family histories in British history like that presented by A. N. Wilson where a multi-million-dollar estate and title (in many cases) was inherited by the oldest brother, and the rest of the siblings received nothing.

It certainly explains a lot.

The China Concerts. Jean Michel Jarre

No New Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- August 23, 2022

Yesterday: link here.

Link here.

OXY and Buffett: The WSJ. 

Buoyed by soaring commodity prices, Occidental has substantially paid down its debt load and is generating cash. The company now looks like a strong fit for Mr. Buffett, say investors and analysts. It is strengthening its balance sheet and returning cash to shareholders; it holds the largest position in the most active U.S. oil field; and it is investing in technologies to reduce carbon emissions, which some of Mr. Buffett’s businesses are also doing.

That strategy is paying off. Occidental generated a record $4.35 billion in free cash flow in the second quarter and $3.7 billion in profit. After its shares fell roughly 80% in 2020, Occidental’s stock has jumped 138% this year, a rally driven, in part, by Mr. Buffett’s purchases. 

Occidental entered the pandemic saddled with debt from a $38 billion deal to take over rival Anadarko Petroleum Corp., part of which it funded with $10 billion from Berkshire. Plunging oil prices led the company to lay off employees and cut executives’ salaries—including Ms. Hollub’s—and slash expenses in the oil patch.

But while the deal looked ill-timed, analysts say, the assets Occidental acquired from Anadarko have since helped solidify its position as the largest producer in the Permian basin, the prolific shale oil field in West Texas and New Mexico. The company said it produced roughly half a million barrels of oil a day domestically in the second quarter of the year, compared with about 280,000 barrels before it acquired Anadarko.

6:04 a.m.: 

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

WTI: $91.83. After Saudi suggested they want to stabilize the oil markets.

Natural gas: $9.801. Will we hit $10 this week?

Active rigs: 46.

No wells coming off confidential list.

RBN Energy: the case for Corpus Christi to become a clean hydrogen hub, part 3. 

It wouldn’t be hard to work up a checklist of the qualities that a major clean hydrogen hub should offer. Easy access to low-cost natural gas for methane reforming, and to carbon sequestration sites for captured carbon dioxide (CO₂). Plentiful wind and solar energy to power electrolyzers that split water into hydrogen and oxygen. Lots of available land for clean hydrogen and ammonia production facilities. Nearby refineries and other industrial consumers of hydrogen. And don’t forget export terminals, because the rest of the world will continue to demand U.S.-sourced energy. Well, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog, Corpus Christi seems to check all the boxes.

Oracle -- October 16, 2025

Locator: 49410ORACLE. 

With regard to Big Cap tech, the fog is beginning to clear. 

Link here. 

Link here.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 
• All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Many posts are not proofread for several days after they've been posted.  
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• And Oracle. 
• Longer version here.  

 *******************************
BRK-B

 

One year:

• S&P 500: up 13% 
• BRK-B: up 4% 

Meanwhile, the Buffet watch, link here. From the linked article:

Berkshire Hathaway has a deal to pay $9.7 billion in cash to buy OxyChem, Occidental Petroleum’s chemical business.

It could be Warren Buffett’s last major acquisition before he gives up his CEO role at the end of the year.

It is Berkshire’s biggest deal since it paid $11.6 billion for insurer Allegheny in 2022, but it is not the enormous “elephant” that Buffett has been hunting for that would put a significant dent in the company’s roughly $340 billion in cash as of the end of June.

The deal builds on an already close relationship between the companies:  Berkshire is Occidental’s largest shareholder with a stake of almost 27% currently valued at $11.9 billion.

In addition, Occidental is paying an 8% dividend on more than $8 billion in preferred shares held by Berkshire after what was, in effect, a loan to help OXY buy Anadarko Petroleum in 2019.

As part of that deal, Berkshire also now holds warrants to buy nearly 84 million additional OXY common shares for just under $60 per share, which is higher than their current price just under $45.

Despite those ties, Buffett told shareholders two years ago Berkshire will not try to acquire Occidental in its entirety.

In a live interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” the morning of the announcement, CEO Vicki Hollub said it will use $6.5 billion of the OxyChem purchase price to reduce its debt, bringing it below the $15 billion target set when it bought Permian Basin producer CrownRock in late 2023 for $12 billion.

“Now we’re going to be able to start our share repurchase program again ...

Idle Rambling On A Saturday Night -- February 15, 2020

Link here.

Two screenshots.

The first screenshot is "as is" from the link, but there is a data point in that screenshot that is of incredible interest. See if you can figure out what I want to point out.

The second screenshot, I think, points out a key data point for investors. It shows the dividend history for a publicly-traded company that I purposely did not name yet.

Your mission, should you choose to accept it: what connects those two screenshots, or more to the point, name the publicly-traded company whose dividend history is shown. Hint: the company is seen in the Berkshire Hathaway 13F screenshot above.

This is not an investment site, but I've been watching this for the past eight or nine months.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Okay, here it is, see this post from May 16, 2019.

I think this -- the most recent Berkshire Hathaway 13F/OXY is a big, big deal. I think there were a lot of folks wondering how Vicki Hollub would do; a lot of folks wondering how OXY would do. I was certainly one of them. I had a lot of "faith" in Hollub and was impressed that she survived as CEO this past year.

I've been waiting for a "sign" before re-investing in OXY. 

Warren Buffett may have just provided that "sign."

The Buffett-OXY deal:

Buffett will receive an 8% return on his preferred shares to finance the deal plus warrants to buy common shares, a similar structure the financier used before in taking stakes in Bank of America Corp. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Icahn claimed that at least one large investor that he knows of would have provided the financing without the warrants.

Did Berkshire Hathaway exercise its warrants? See below.

In the 13F, Berkshire Hathaway more than doubled its OXY holdings, raising its stakes from 7,467,508 shares to 18,933,054 shares (about 2.5x its original holdings).

Share price for OXY:

• one year ago: $67
• six months ago: $44
• 45 days ago: $43
• yesterday: $42

The Berkshire-OXY deal:

With Occidental competing with Chevron to buy Anadarko, Berkshire bought $10 billion of Occidental preferred stock paying an 8% dividend, and received warrants to buy up to 80 million shares of Occidental stock for $62.50 a share.

Some observations:

• Vicki Hollub survived a very, very rough year;
• Berkshire Hathaway most likely bought the new OXY shares before the coronavirus shock;
• Vicki Hollub did not cut the dividend; she actually raised the dividend, albeit not much, but in line with previous dividend raises; 
• OXY is paying 7.52%;
• the one-year share price target is $51, which is still well below its 52-week high, just below $70;
• Berkshire Hathaway did not double its OXY holdings because of the warrants (unless I'm missing something)
• Warren Buffett likes dividends, but ...
• OXY's share price has not changed much in the past 45 days;
• December 31, 2019: $41.20 
• January 23, 2020 (Chinese cities quarantined): $42.52
• February 10, 2020: $41.11  
• February 14, 2020: $41.60
• the 13F article above was released after the market closed on Friday
• Occidental Petroleum announced its next ex-dividend date will be on 9-Mar-2020. The next dividend for OXY was announced to be 0.79. 

Again, idle rambling on a Saturday night; not ready for prime time.

*************************************

Click Bait

IBD: Warren Buffett Sells Apple, Buys Kroger 

This was the lede over at Investor's Business Daily, link here.

Warren Buffett bought shares of Kroger (KR) and Biogen (BIIB) in the fourth quarter, but the investing legend further pared his Apple (AAPL) and Wells Fargo (WFC) stakes, Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKB) latest quarterly 13F filings with the SEC showed.

This was the internet "tease" that brought me there:

Wow, what a joke. Passes for news these days.

Prior to the sale, on a dollar basis, AAPL was Berkshire Hathaway's biggest holding, at 30% of the entire portfolio. In the last quarter, BRK sold 1.4% of his shares in AAPL, dropping from 248,838,679 to 245,155,566 AAPL shares (3,683,113 shares). If he sold on December 2, 2019, shares were selling at $264. AAPL shares are currently fetching $325.

Paper loss: $225 million or close to a quarter billion dollars.

Warren's move certainly seems to be ridiculous on the surface, but we don't know the particulars. But Investor's Business Daily headlining "Buffett pared his Apple stakes" certainly seems a bit over the top.

My hunch: there was a long, long discussion between Munger, Buffett, et al, about what to do with a stock (AAPL) that was now 30% of the entire Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. "Traditional rules" would have argued for a much bigger cut, maybe as much as a 50% cut in the portfolio's AAPL holdings, but that would have been beyond the pale.

A bit of irony: Warren Buffett sells AAPL but then buys Kroger, which also sells apples. Along with oranges and cauliflower.

Investment Trends In The Bakken, 2013, Part III -- Filloon

Part I and Part II were linked here.

This is Part III.

The first quarter has turned out to be much better than expected in the Bakken. Most operators spent time drilling from pads, which was a good thing as the winter lasted longer with more snow than originally expected. Pad drilling requires that all the wells be drilled before completion work begins. Batch drilling saves time and money.

Zipper fracs allow multiple wells to be fracced at the same time, which also lowers costs. The larger percentage of drilling vs. completion work means less production began in the first quarter. This did lower revenues, but more importantly, is the beginning of a new dynamic in the Bakken and at other basins in the United States.

Completing multiple wells with in a short time frame means production will be very high at those times. This means some quarters will have high revenues and EPS while others could be very low. This lumpy production will provide buying opportunities in the first and second quarters of the year. In parts one and two of this series, I discussed how the Bakken operators continue to benefit. Part 3 also touches on these points, but more importantly, starts with Oasis, which blew the doors off estimates.

Cost of wells is well below $10 million. 

Huge amount of information regarding Oasis.

With regard to COP:

Now the Eagle Ford, Permian, and Bakken have higher margins than the average of all of Conoco's production combined. This shows the economics of shale liquids are very good. Conoco's WTI/Bakken differentials are minus $5, and the Eagle Ford is plus $5. Even with well cost improvements in the Bakken, the Eagle Ford continues to be a better overall play.

Costs for OXY USA wells has come down significantly:

Occidental is realizing improved well costs throughout all of its U.S. acreage. From 2012 to 2013, the Williston Basin has seen a 32% decrease. This was the best percentage of all U.S. plays for Occidental. Its drilling program is now planned months in advance. This not only decreases costs associated with downtime, but it has been able to decrease the number of hours needed to complete the wells. It has decreased the number of strings of casing. It has switched its cemented liners for slotted liners. Occidental is optimizing water usage, by using flow back-end or produced water on completions. Stimulation contracted costs are also headed lower. Four months ago, Occidental Bakken well costs averaged $10 million. Today the average is $8.2 million with a goal of $7.5 million. In 2013, it will run 6 to 7 rigs. 

Investment Trends, The Bakken, 1Q13, Part IV -- Filloon

Part IV.

Well costs continue to head lower. Most operators are reporting well costs decreasing 20% to 30% year-over-year. The unusually late winter in North Dakota forced some to put off completion work until the second quarter and just focus on getting wells drilled.

This is much more convenient now that pads production looks to increase exponentially over 2012. Companies like Kodiak put its mobile rigs to work punching holes. Since there was little to no completion crews to worry about, Kodiak didn't have to worry about time frames and how that would affect fraccing. Once the drilling is completed, the completion crew will zipper frac the wells. This can decrease times by a third. This coupled with lower oil service costs across the board, increase rates of return to levels that are much more economic.

Drilling in the first quarter threw analyst projections off as costs were higher as more drilling work got done, but very few wells were put to sales. I am expecting some very big top and bottom line numbers in the third quarter of this year.

An incredible amount of information in this post, again, as usual.

From an earlier post:

Part I and Part II were linked here.

Part III:

The first quarter has turned out to be much better than expected in the Bakken. Most operators spent time drilling from pads, which was a good thing as the winter lasted longer with more snow than originally expected. Pad drilling requires that all the wells be drilled before completion work begins. Batch drilling saves time and money.

Zipper fracs allow multiple wells to be fracced at the same time, which also lowers costs. The larger percentage of drilling vs. completion work means less production began in the first quarter. This did lower revenues, but more importantly, is the beginning of a new dynamic in the Bakken and at other basins in the United States.

Completing multiple wells with in a short time frame means production will be very high at those times. This means some quarters will have high revenues and EPS while others could be very low. This lumpy production will provide buying opportunities in the first and second quarters of the year. In parts one and two of this series, I discussed how the Bakken operators continue to benefit. Part 3 also touches on these points, but more importantly, starts with Oasis, which blew the doors off estimates.

Cost of wells is well below $10 million. 

Huge amount of information regarding Oasis.

With regard to COP:

Now the Eagle Ford, Permian, and Bakken have higher margins than the average of all of Conoco's production combined. This shows the economics of shale liquids are very good. Conoco's WTI/Bakken differentials are minus $5, and the Eagle Ford is plus $5. Even with well cost improvements in the Bakken, the Eagle Ford continues to be a better overall play.

Costs for OXY USA wells has come down significantly:

Occidental is realizing improved well costs throughout all of its U.S. acreage. From 2012 to 2013, the Williston Basin has seen a 32% decrease. This was the best percentage of all U.S. plays for Occidental. Its drilling program is now planned months in advance. This not only decreases costs associated with downtime, but it has been able to decrease the number of hours needed to complete the wells. It has decreased the number of strings of casing. It has switched its cemented liners for slotted liners. Occidental is optimizing water usage, by using flow back-end or produced water on completions. Stimulation contracted costs are also headed lower. Four months ago, Occidental Bakken well costs averaged $10 million. Today the average is $8.2 million with a goal of $7.5 million. In 2013, it will run 6 to 7 rigs.

For The Archives: OXY USA Spin-Off Of California Assets Approved -- October 2, 2014

Link here: 

Occidental Petroleum Corporationannounced today that its Board of Directors has approved the spin-off of its California oil and gas business into an independent and separately traded company, California Resources Corporation.

The companies will be separated through the distribution of approximately 80.1 percent of the outstanding shares of California Resources to holders of Occidental common stock. Subject to the satisfaction of the conditions to the spin-off, the distribution is expected to occur on November 30, 2014. Occidental shareholders will receive 0.4 shares of California Resources common stock for every one share of Occidental common stock held at the close of business November 17, 2014, the record date for the distribution.

Comments are important.

Stories We'll Be Talking About Today -- January 11, 2024

Locator: : 46515B.

Comes in three: Saban (Alabama), Carroll (Seattle), and now -- just breaking now -- Belichick out as head coach at New England Patriots. Widely predicted 24 hours ago over on twitter.

Michael Novogratz: on CNBC -- excellent. I agree with him completely on his statements on Trump, Biden. Nice to hear someone talk plainly.

CPI, December numbers: 0.3% vs 0.2% m/m; 3.9% for y/y; best since 2020 or thereabouts; ex-food and energy m/m came in exactly as estimated, 0.3% vs 0.3%; y/y 3.4% vs 3.2%. Core CPI 3.9% y/y vs 3.8% y/y. Everything right in line. Dow goes from slightly positive to slightly negative. Jobs data unremarkable: 202K vs 210K estimated, first time claims. See this note for further discussion. By noon, this will be old news. Especially since numbers are in line with expectations. 

• Steve Liesman:
• trajectory is not a straight line
• in December, a reversal of some gains last month
• rental (homes): still a problem
• others
  
• Fed won't cut rates "sooner"; most analysts, it seems, suggest Fed will "stand pat"
• average credit card carries balance of $4,000 (hard to believe but if accurate Americans are paying a lot of interest on a monthly basis)
• "we" need to see a lot more "goods" deflation before "see" relief on inflation numbers
• "services" inflation vs "goods" inflation
• "everybody" talks cost of groceries; real cost concerns for Americans: price of automobiles. 
• it's one thing to complain about turkey at $1.19 / pound when it was $0.99 / pound -- Americans can "handle" that, but a $50,000 car today vs a $30,000 car two years ago? Same with housing. In other words, talking heads on CNBC are giving auto manufacturers a pass while complaining about cost of groceries.

CNBC: US equity markets are all green an hour before CPI data is to be reported. My hunch? Lots of volatility today.

Bitcoin ETFs: approved by SEC. Think back on comments by Jamie Dimon and Charlie Munger. On wrong side of history.

Huge day for ARKK. Cathie Wood on a roll: could put gig economy on steroids. 

Continues to defend Tesla despite recent decision by Hertz to downsize its Tesla inventory, to sell one-third of its EV inventory. Cathie Wood was disingenuous when responding to the Hertz development. Cathie Wood says it's all about educating the American population. There is a huge difference among a) riding in an Uber Tesla and b) buying a Tesla and c) renting a Tesla. I won't do "a, b, or c." Rich folks will pay up for an Uber Tesla, but except for niche situations, EVs have lost their luster. I can't even imagine taking a chance driving from north Texas to Flathead Lake in Montana in January in a Tesla: 1,771 miles divided by 300 mile-range = six (6) re-charging stops each direction. 

Joe Keenan calls GM’s EV division a joke — says GM sold one EV in period when Tesla sold 100’s of thousands: some hyperbole but sentiment in right place. Fact check here. Not as bad as Joe suggests. Actually worse when you dig through the numbers. And then there’s the “snow problem.”

10-Year: drops below 4% prior to CPI data; after data comes out, 10-year goes just above 4% -- barely.

SCCO: down this past week but up 12% in the past month. 

AAPL: appears to have stabilized at $186. Headlines remain "negative." What did Buffett say?  "Be greedy when others are fearful; be fearful when others are greedy."

BA: may have stabilized; y/y still a 20% gain.

Folks may want to take a look at that last post on the blog last night. Today, even before the day's news cycle has begun:

• state of Maine begins paying rent for undocumented tourists; $3.5 million for 60 families; link here.
  
• works out to $58,333 / family; with 4 electoral votes, Maine is considered blue.
• and ten folks wonder why these tourists take the bus or plane from Texas to New England;
  
• that's why I'm not worried about US economy; so much money sloshing around out there, even Maine an afford upwards of $60,000 for each undocumented tourist and family.
• it's just beginning; imagine what NYC and Chicago are paying
• a lot of hoteliers must be making money "hand over fist," for their o/w money-losing properties
  
• Iran boarding a ship in the Red Sea is the number one story (by far) on twitter this morning;
• PAA just increased its quarterly dividend by almost 20%, from 26.75 cents to 31.75 cents (need to fact check); link here; and, here; at this link says PAA now pays 8.2%;
  
• OXY / Buffett: being reported: Buffett has made another huge purchase of OXY; raising stakes to 34% of OXY; up from 27.7%; there’s a difference between buying an equity position in a company (you and me)  and buying the company (him).
• NVID up $12 yesterday; pre-market today, up another $7; Nvidia cannot be stopped. In past month, NVID up 17%.
• MSFT: up $7 yesterday; pre-market today, up another $2.00; Microsoft closing in on Apple's market cap record. MSFT up 3% in past month, trailing the broader market. MSFT does edge out AAPL on market cap.
  
• OXY: in past month, down 0.5%; S&P up 3.5% in past month.
  
• Chesapeake to buy Southwestern (SWN); the latter falls on that news; note: this is not Southwest Gas (SWX).
  
• Germany de-industrializing: link here to one of the best -- Bjorn Lomborg.
  
• Bloomberg's letter today: the flood of US LNG about to hit the market; link here. 
• will go on for decades
• only thing that can slow this down: "greenies" in Biden's administration
• will look at "climate change" issue when considering permits for new export facilities
• Stap reported this yesterday;
  

 
Quick note: recent OXY buy by Buffett suggests:

• Buffett still sees huge risk of recession this year; and/or,
• he sees OXY way, way undervalued; or,
• he’s “buying” the company (just joking).

Buffett, OXY, from Barron's:

Occidental shares closed Wednesday at $56.80, down 1.2%, its lowest closing price of 2024.

The stock has fallen more than 3% so far this week amid a selloff in energy stocks with crude oil down more than $2 a barrel to about $71.25 a barrel (based on WTI crude).

Occidental pointed 1.6% higher ahead of the open Thursday as investors digested the news that Berkshire has increased its holding.

As a holder of more than 10% of Occidental stock, Berkshire must file with the Securities and Exchange Commission within two business days of a purchase or sale of Occidental stock.

There was heavier-than-usual volume of more than 10 million shares of Occidental stock on Monday, above the roughly 8.5 million shares Wednesday.

Buffett, 3Q23: link here. Previously reported. It's reported that Buffett likes dividends; note dividend payout for OXY vs CVX.

Monetizing streaming companies: link here.

************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.78. Up almost 2%; up $1.41.

Friday, January 12, 2024: 13 for the month; 13 for the quarter, 13 for the year
39884, conf, Kraken, Kisner 24-13-12 3H,

Thursday, January 11, 2024: 12 for the month; 12 for the quarter, 12 for the year
39721, conf, Falcon Midstream Services, Cheryl 3,
38302, conf, Whiting, Bigfoot 23 7H,

RBN Energy: acquisition of Calllon Petroleum gives APA much deeper roots in the Permian.

Permian this and Permian that. For several years now, acreage and production in that sprawling, crude-oil-focused shale play in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico have been at the center of so much M&A activity. And the deals keep coming! Just last week, APA Corp. — the international E&P formerly known as Apache — announced that it will be acquiring Callon Petroleum, which in recent years has become a Permian pure play with significant holdings in both the Delaware and Midland basins. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the APA/Callon deal, the drivers behind it, and why the acquisition makes sense for both companies.