Monday, December 26, 2016

Putting The Bakken Decline Rate In Perspective -- December 26, 2016

This is a link to an old article sent in by a reader. The story is from The [London] Telegraph four years ago, December 30, 2012. It has to do with wind farms, wind turbines, and economics. Data points:
  • the wind industry and most analysts base wind energy economics on 20- to 25-year lifespan of the turbines
  • the question is whether analysts factor in a decline rate 
  • onshore wind farms generate electricity effectively for just 12 to 15 years
  • offshore: the decline rate is even worse
  • blades and/or turbines will need to be replaced more quickly than the industry estimates
  • (yes, Virginia, the costs will be passed on to the consumer -- by regulation and by law)
  • the "load factor" for wind turbines:
    24% in the first 12 months of operation
  • 11% after 15 years
  • "load factor": an efficiency rating; percentage of electricity actually produced vs theoretical maximum
  • the subject has been discussed ad nauseum but the industry still gets away with it: promoters allowed to "sell" their product using theoretical maximums despite knowing that in actuality, the best one can expect is less than a fourth of that in the first, declining to a tenth just ten years later
  • larger wind farms have systematically worse performance than smaller wind farms
Much more at the link.

The SEC meanwhile is going after Exxon for the way it values its reserves.

More Fake News

I thought "they" were going to quit printing "fake news." More click bait: "2016 was the year solar panels finally became cheaper than fossil fuel. Just wait for 2017."

Not holding my breath. 

Not Fake News

China has announced it will start paying less for renewable energy in light of decreased costs to install renewable energy projects. Bloomberg is reporting that China will cut tariffs by nearly 20% in 2017 for solar energy, and 15% for wind energy.

Is Gartman Losing It?

I was looking for something else on the blog when I ran across this old post, which reminded me of a more recent post:
  • crude is not going above $55 for years -- Gartman 
  • Uber is "top threat" to oil -- Gartman
It started out as a trickle, but more and more media outlets are re-posting the story: there is a small, but influential, group of investors (these articles call them "speculators" placing bets (making investments) based on possibility of $100-oil as early as 2018. When I get around to it, I will post a link but that's not on my list of things to do this morning.

No comments:

Post a Comment