Idle Rambling On A Saturday Morning -- September 14, 2019

Idle rambling on a Saturday morning.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. I love Big Oil. I am unabashedly pro-Trump. I have no formal training in finances, oil or gas, geology, or archaeology. I am now "old school."

In the long run, we are all dead. Thoughts.

Price: at $50 oil, Saudi Arabia is toast. Even at $60 oil, Saudi will struggle. And now it gets worse. Saudi embarks on nuclear program. Very, very expensive.

Recession is right around the corner: everything, literally (not figuratively or metaphorically)  -- literally everything published by the mainstream media needs to be filtered through the "Trump Derangement Syndrome" lens (or lenses if one uses both eyes to read). Example after example after example could be posted. Right now, the best: "recession is right around the corner."

Tweets: anyone who complains about the president's tweets:

a) doesn't understand the president
b) doesn't read the president's tweets and/or takes them out of context

Recession is right around the corner: that's why the market is flirting with new highs. Investors want one more chance to really lose a lot of money over the next six months.

I'd Rather Go Blind, Beth Hart  
Top energy stories this past week have been posted. These jumped out at me.

EVs:

• for the first time ever, global sales of EVs declined. And they did not decline by just a little bit; EVs sales dropped off a cliff
• automobile manufacturers are putting a lot of money into EVs
• it certainly doesn't sound like anyone has really thought this through
• at the end of the day, those EVs are going to require a lot of fossil fuel (natural gas, coal)
• we're not even close to an average of two EVs in a typical suburb across the US, and finally those in Seattle see that the grid is not ready for EVs 
• energy is not the issue: transmission will be the issue
• 40% of Americans live in rental units; "no" access to overnight charging; one wonders what would happen to the local grid if a 100-unit apartment complex installed charging units for all tenants; with no EVs in our immediate area, we suffered interruptions in electricity this past week due to heavy air conditioning demand and that was at night; imagine three EVs in our apartment complex (we turn off our a/c when we use the dryer at 9:00 p.m. to minimize chances of tripping a circuit breaker)

Gasoline demand:

• the US is getting closer and closer to a threshold never seen before -- a gasoline demand of 10 million bbls per day; 
• had it not been for Hurricane Dorian, we might have hit that threshhold; we probably now need to wait until next year to see that 10-million threshold

US oil inventory drawdown:

• someone connected these dots: the US "briefly" was the global #1 exporter of oil and petroleum products, beating out Saudi Arabia for the first time ever. 
• key point: "petroleum products." Huge throughput at US refineries; not said: petroleum products are value-added products vs simply exporting un-refined crude oil, which is what Saudi Arabia does as far as I know
• some naysayers suggested (by emphasizing "briefly") that this was an anomaly; that the US won't do this again; LOL.

Can't Help Falling in Love, Chris Isaak?   

Mis-analyzed: a reader brought to my attention comments in ShaleProfile suggesting to me that folks still don't "get" the shale revolution

• conventional metrics still being used to analyze unconventional oil
• misunderstanding the time-scale in shale production vs the time-scale in conventional oil 
• onshore shale: projects measured in months; offshore, deep-ocean: measure in years
• this past week, the Bakken was shut down due to torrential rains; if oil production for September, 2019, falls off a cliff in the November, 2019, Director's Cut, no one will remember that the Bakken was shut down for 25% of the month
• shale oil is the swing producer
• geopolitical events in the Mideast push the price story
• I often wonder what would happen in the Bakken if the Strait of Hormuz was shut down

In the long run, we are all dead:

• two "energy" deaths in particular saddened me:  
• Aubrey McClendon, back in 2016
• T. Boone Pickens, 2019
• reminds me of my own mortality
• at end of day: "leave the world a better place than you found it"
• Carl Icahn, age 81, leaving NYC (high taxes) for Florida (low taxes): what took him so long?
• I get a kick out of guys like Jim Cramer advising folks on how to invest, and they can't see the high taxes in New York as the real problem
• and fees
• my Schwab account has no fees
• I have another account that has a 0.5% annual fee on total assets. Doesn't sound like much ... 0.5%. But 0.5% of $1 million = $5,000. 
• Elizabeth Warren's wealth tax: ditto

Wealth tax:

• back to anonymous Swiss bank accounts
• blockchain

Sanctions, tariffs:

• anyone paying attention knows that China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela are losing

Guns:

• this will not be reported anywhere
• last night, the big story on local news: Beto's promise to take guns away
• local television networks ran polls to see how Beto's remarks played out
• 80% disagreed with Beto; 20% supported Beto
• bottom line: we now know the 30-second video that will be played non-stop in Texas during next summer's presidential campaign; his rant was not subtle
• Beto really, really screwed the Democratic surge in Texas; "hell, yes, we're gonna take your guns"
• earlier this week, I was in a location where I was actually concerned about another mass shooting; I was sincerely hoping that there were dozens of law-abiding Texans carrying concealed weapons in the crowd; nothing scares me more than to walk into a closed arena where guns are not allowed; the only folks in the arena with guns are those breaking the law; the police are outside;
• when seconds count, the police will be there in minutes
• the problem is not guns among law-abiding citizens; the problem is elsewhere
• and, yes, close the loopholes on background checks
• enforce the gun laws already on the books
• mainstream media: we won't hear much about the shootings in Baltimore, Chicago, NYC this weekend

Beef:

• my "caveman" drilling has really gotten me excited about grilling again; 
• for beef, I will never go back to grate grilling
• I now understand the cuts of beef so much better
• chuck roast steak: "caveman" grilling won't work; 
• but perfect, wow, perfect for slow cooking; tried it yesterday; pleasantly surprised
• slow cooker: no recipe -- carrots, green beans, potatoes, chuck roast steak; threw together beef bullion, thyme, sage, dry rub, pepper, no measuring, just what seemed right; seven hours later; perfect; wow, it was good
• I read a lot of "cooking" articles in the weekend edition of the WSJ; gives me great ideas; but sometimes I think we over-think all of this
• things I've learned: 
• practice, practice, practice
• extensive spice cabinet but it only works if one can easily see what one has
• the more preparation it takes (cutting fresh herbs; cutting ends of green beans; cutting fat off meat; etc), the more rum and Coke, and the louder the music; Alexa is great
• no matter how small one's workspace, there is always enough room for preparation
• scissors are as important as sharp knives
• the more dishes, pots, and pans one uses, the better the final product, and the more fun the preparation
• wash / clean pots and pans as one goes along
• never, never, never use the oven if at all possible -- except for baking bread

Comments on the blog: usually limited to those comments that increase understanding about the Bakken. Comments are heavily moderated. I never had "open-line Friday."