Commentary -- Flood Of Vehicles To Begin Hitting The Market This Summer -- January 5, 2022

Updates

January 6, 2022: a reader who knows the "truck industry" as well as anyone and who writes me to expand on my notes as often as necessary, provided these thoughts regarding my notes below:

600 mile range for an electric truck will put it into a regional delivery range. 200 to 300 mile trip - 600-mile round trip and the unit comes back to the terminal. 

600 miles is not enough range for long haul truckers who can drive 11 out of 24 hours.

At the posted limit it puts the 600 mile truck in a range of no reserve power in case of any type of delay or in extreme hot or cold weather which reduces the range. 

Urban, close-haul pickup and delivery is the only real useful place for electric powered trucks. Great for use at container ports, delivery of gasoline, and other short, multiple daily trip loads. 

Long haul is the last use of electric. 

The big question still is where will all the power come from? To install a charging location, truck stop or terminal will take a huge amount of power. Are there any power plants being built to service this demand, 24 / 7 no matter what the weather? 

There are supply chain disruptions now  with plenty of blame flying around. Who will take the heat when the region you are in has no reliable delivery, especially in extreme weather.

Comment: great, great help for me -- that comment --- first of all, huge difference in my thinking -- "long haul" vs "medium haul" vs "short haul." I was completely wrong suggesting EV would be an answer for "long haul" but it looks like EV niche might be "medium haul" (ports, terminals, high density urban areas) and "short haul." 

The big, big, big issue remains: the infrastructure. I concentrated on footprint of the recharging pads -- that is a very small issue compared to the underlying need for much more robust electric grid beginning with power stations.

Original Note

January 4, 2022: dam will break, summer of 2022 -- flood of new cars start hitting the market.

I made that comment yesterday, that by the summer of 2022 -- about six months from now, a flood of new cars will start hitting the market. 

Now this in The WSJ today: automakers supercharge move into electric vehicles. No specific timeline but 2023 will start to see the many new EV entries, but the supply chain issues will resolve well before then for ICE vehicles, and we should see a huge flood of new vehicles this summer (2022). 

The big three: GM, Ford, and Rivian. Timelines and updates.

• Rivian fades in the long term.
• Ford beats GM to market.
• Tesla pick-up seems to be the laggard. My hunch: the prototype design was seen as a dud; designers started over. 

Long-haul trucks:

If these long-haul trucks really get 600-mile range on single charge, the "big guys" are going to start plotting (probably already have) where to put the mega-electric truck stops.

I don't know if other folks have noticed but truckers like to sleep also, and the truck stops are absolutely full overnight -- perfect for re-charging their vehicles.

But the footprint will be interesting. Right now, a truck pulls in, refuels and in fifteen minutes leaves the refueling pump, and goes off to park.

With e-charging, these trucks will occupy the charging station all night, so instead of six pumps for a hundred trucks, they will need a hundred charging stations for a hundred trucks. 

Derivative: 

To make sure they get a charging station, truckers will pull off the road earlier in the evening to beat the crowd. This could really be a disaster for a trucker who can't find an available charging station; could lose up to one day in travel time. 

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The Sports Page

Local high school posted photos of recent scrimmage with our granddaughter's soccer team. Link here.

The Guyer high school posted 58 photos, almost all of which featured Guyer athletes. Of the handful of photos of Grapevine High School athletes, almost every one of them was of our granddaughter Olivia.