Did The Fed Wait Too Long; The Widening Gaps Between Main Street And Wall Street; Between Main Street And Oak Street -- Part 2 -- February 15, 2024

Locator: 46827ECON.

Local weather: incredibly hot and this is February!?

It's looking like a short squeeze.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

The Director's Cut: will be posted at 3:00 p.m. CT. I won't post the data until later this evening due to family commitments. Link here.

The market: as I write this, the US equity markets are on a tear. 

• The Dow is up over 300 points. The. S&P 500 is up 23 points. NASDAQ fairly flat -- AAPL is still negative but it's off it's lows for the day when I acquired more shares of AAPL today. When the 7:30 a.m. ET data was released, it was predictable that the market would be up in response. I did not expect it to be this fast and this much.
• the S&P 500 will be close to another record close. 
• even the Russell 2000 is looking really, really good.
  

Economic data today as well as today's GDP Now 1Q24 estimate raises one question and two observations:

• the question: has the Fed waited too long to cut rates? The answer: yes.
• the two observations:
• the gap between Wall Street and Main Street is widening; and,
• the gap between Main Street and Oak Street is also widening.

We'll talk about this later tonight if we have time, but I think anyone paying attention can see what I'm seeing.

UNP: the only ticker that fascinates me today.

BRK: selling AAPL -- BRK's equity portfolio is showing a decline "every" day AAPL is down, even if the overall market is up

Breaking news from AAPL. AAPL now surges after hours. It's a nerdy report but it's huge. Wow, wow, wow -- thrilled with my AAPL move today. Whoo-hoo. After hours AAPL is now 

AMAT: surges. Really surges. Great earnings report. AMAT makes the chips others design. Huge beat.

Trade Deks Inc: surges; beats on revenue; misses on earnings, but guidance and buyback exciting; shares up over 24%.

ROKU: down 14% after hours; after earnings. Not a bit surprising. Time to start thinking what the "tired US consumer is going to cut first."

AAPL is now up $1.66 after hours and back above $185. Whoo-hoo.  [Later: fell back to what it was at the close. Apple's breaking news was too nerdy, too techie. And too little, too late.

BRK: has a problem. Even on days the Dow surges, Warren's equity portfolio could be in the red.

• I'm not talking about the market value of the entire BRK company; I'm just talking about his equity portfolio
  
• the entire BRK company includes many fully-owned subsidiaries like Geico and BNSF (the railroad)
• with 40% of his equity portfolio tied up in AAPL and upwards of 30% of his portfolio tied up in legacy companies that are relatively flat, it is impossible for his equity portfolio to be in the green on most days when the overall market is green if AAPL is in the red; and especially if energy is in the red.
  
• he's frustrated and that led to selling some of his AAPL; more of an emotional move than a rational trade;
• had it been rational, he could have done just as well investing an equal amount of his cash horde into the "super 6" -- the "magnificent 7 minus Tesla"
• was it a warning shot for Tim Cook? 
• Buffett likes dividends and AAPL hoarding cash; WUWT
  

At the close:

• the Dow up almost one percent; up
• the S&P 500, it appears has set a new record -- yes, it did, 5,030 and change

AAPL: surges after hours for techie / nerdy reasons. More later. Now, AAPL is back down near where it was at the close.

NOG: operational update and preliminary guidance. Link here.

• Fourth quarter 2023 production estimated to be 114.4 Mboe per day, resulting in annual production toward the high end of NOG’s guidance range 
• Executed on $25 million of opportunistic Ground Game acquisitions in the fourth quarter 
• Initiating preliminary 2024 production and capital spending guidance 
• 2024 production guidance implies ~20% year over year growth on a flat capital budget at the midpoint of guidance ranges versus preliminary 2023 actuals (excluding non-budgeted acquisitions) 

So much more, but family commitments!

Later: so much more could be said but time to put this post to an end.