Monday, June 2, 2025

Doesn’t Look Like A Recession To Me —June 2, 2025

Locator: 48667MARKET.

Headline today:

S&P 500 saw best May since 1990.

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Meanwhile

20-y/o journalists. It took a year and a half to plan a hate crime that was nothing more than two Molotov cocktails. That was The New York Times takeaway. That was the headline. I can’t make this up. I wonder how The New York Times would headline the “9-11” terrorist attack today.
 
The market today: wow, this really encapsulates the market today -- it's all about steel! Who would have thought? 


Top performers, today, note:
  • mining:
    • Southern Copper (SCCO): up 1.7% today.
    • FCX: up 4.34%and
  • Vistra (say what?)
    • largest competitive power generator in the US
    • HQ: Irving, TX
    • incredibly diverse energy platform (natural gas, nuclear, renewables)
Bottom performers:
  • not shown: Lucid; market cap: $16 billion
    • quick: what percent of Lucid is owned by Saudi Arabia? 60% 
    • 60% of $16 billion = $10 billion
    • as bad as its stock performance has been, it's gotten even worse this year, if you can imagine that!
    • the big question: how much longer will Saudi Arabia stay engaged with Lucid?
      • Lucid's cash burn in 2024 was $3 billion, slightly better tan 2023 
      • Saudi Arabia just placed a $5 billion bond offering
      • so basically, Saudi Arabia is issuing debt to keep Lucid afloat
  • likewise, not shown, Rivian, down 3%
  • largest stakeholder in Rivian? Amazon
    • Amazon holds 160 million shares; almost 15% of the company (Rivian)

Is it safe to say, EVs:

  • steel: just got more expensive, and not by just a little bit.
  • batteries: EV manufacturers can't make them without Federal subsidies and help from China.
  • software: upwards of one-third of total wholesale cost of an EV: software
    • 2020s estimate: 10% - 20% of total wholesale cost of an EV
    • by 2030, software is expected to represent 30% to 40% and possibly higher in premium or autonomous-capable EVs

Why is software so important for EVs?

  • battery management systems (BMS)
  • autonomous driving features (ADAS, navigation, sensor fusion)
  • infotainment systems
  • vehicle control software
  • cybersecurity