Locator: 49862B.
Black swans:
- government shutdown / political anxiety;
- Iran: US response goes poorly;
- AI: too much debt in the short term spooks investors;
- state deficit: California -- $18 billion short term; $35 billion medium term;
- population: 40 million
- city deficit: NYC -- just coming out now -- "severe fiscal crisis" -- state comptroller; $2.2 billion for current year (2026) ballooning to over $10 billion in FY2027;
- population: 10 million but no "Silicon Valley";
- rest of state won't support Mamdani;
- wealthy won't be happy with Mamdani's plans to increase taxes on wealthy;
Iran: rial collapses. Link here.
US economy: the Fed holds steady --
- takeaway: "what, me worry?"
- photo-op: watching paint dry
- overall, a stronger forecast than in the past -- economy gets stronger and stronger;
- "We'll let the private sector worry about the employment / unemployment rate; we're happy with what we see."
GDP: 4Q25 -- estimate -- last estimate -- 5.4% -- link here.
- despite government shut-down;
- historically high tariffs; "a trade war that we've not had in 100 years" -- Fed chairman Jay Powell
- current GDP has not yet factored in:
- huge tax refund expectations
- decreased taxes going forward
- AI build out
- end of EV mandates
Which tech stock should we look at? Spin the wheel: Micron --
IBM after reporting earnings:
Random factoid: across the US --
- Target: Super Targets -- 200
- Walmart: Walmart Supercenters -- 3,600
- in addition Walmart has drones; nothing suggests Target ready to start adding drones.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: breaks through $63 -- time to watch pizza deliveries to the Pentagon. Now trading at $63.21.
Active rigs: 27.
No new permits.
Four permits renewed:
- Murex (2): a Michael Douglas permit and a Patricia Ann permit; the former in Beaver Lodge (Williams County); the latter in West Bank (Williams County)
- XTO (2): two Satter 24X wells, Siverston oil field (McKenzie County.
One producing well (a Duc) reported as completed:
- 41849, 959, EOG, Ross 39-1606H, Mountrail County;
