Locator: 49784EVS.
EV: reminder -- tax credits, etc, ended September 30, 2025 --
- coincided with end of 3W25
- coincided with end of US federal government fiscal year
4Q25 data -- first quarter in which tax credits were no longer available. Decrease in sales were expected, and percentage decline would have been exaggerated by surge of buying in 3Q25 before tax credits were no longer available.
Tesla, reported Friday, January 2, 2026:
- delivered 418,227 vehicles
- down from 495,570 deliveries from one year ago
- below the consensus estimate: 440,907
- TSLA: shares down 1.2%
- so,
- estimate: 441,000
- actual: < 420,000
- 5% worse than expected, and
- down 16% from one year ago
Rivian, reported Friday, January 2, 2026:
- delivered 9,745 vehicles (these numbers are atrocious)
- down from 14,183 deliveries from one year ago
- consensus estimate not provided
- RIVN: shares down 2.2%
- so,
- one year ago: 14,183
- this quarter: 9,745
- down 31% from one year ago
- history: it appears that Rivian recorded an all-time high of 13,201 deliveries 3Q25
- for perspective, 12,640 deliveries, 2Q23
- overall 2025 performance
- delivered 42,247 vehicles vs 51,579, full year 2024
- an 18% decrease from 2024, slightly below analyst expectations
- 2024, full year: 51,579.
- 3Q: 13,201 or 31% (straight line would have been 25%)
- 4Q: 9,745 or or 23%
- 9,745 extrapolates an rate of 38,980, or
- 92% of total deliveries, 2025
- 75% of total deliveries, 2024
- one wonders how they will spin this; three more years of Trump.
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BYD
Sales decline y/y (fourth quarter).
Full-year sales at 4.6 million met their revised target.
Surpassed Tesla to become the world's largest EV manufacturer overtaking Tesla.
Unlike Tesla and Rivian (both pure-play EVs), 50% of BYD's sales are BEVs; 50% are PHEV (fake EVs).
Chinese market is saturated; reports strong export performance.
