Sunday, May 28, 2017

Random Update Of Global Warming -- May 28, 2107


June 1, 2017: Trump announces the US will run, not walk, away from the Paris climate accords.

May 31, 2017: TV crawler -- Trump will walk away from the Paris climate accords.

Original Post

Hillary: we'll support the coal miners. How? Talk.
Trump: we'll support the coal miners. How? Walk.

Rumors are that Trump will walk away from Paris / Kyoto.

Tea Leaves On Global Warming
80% -- Won't Stay Engaged With Paris
20% -- Will Stay Engaged With Paris

In my mind, I still think there's a 80-20 chance that Trump will stay engaged with Paris / Kyoto on global warming, but these are the tea leaves suggesting he has made up his mind:
  • it's now being leaked he has made up his mind; Trump will walk
  • Merkel comes out with an incredibly "defiant" speech suggesting she knew Trump's leanings at the G-7 conference
  • no love lost between Macron and Trump
  • I can't imagine Trump wanting to be part of the Merkel-Macron camp on anything
  • why would be announce his support of AGW back in Washington when he could have announced it in Europe and gotten a few moments of adoration?
  • he himself says he "hit a home run" on his first overseas trip; I doubt he wanted to spoil it by taking a highly controversial position at the very end; I doubt he wanted the AGW announcement to be the only thing the mainstream media would talk about when he returned
  • drives home the point that he wants other countries to pay their fair share in NATO (not directly connected, but "it's all political" and it's all part of "making America great again")
  • his first visit was to Saudi Arabia where many, many business deals were signed; not exactly AGW-oriented 
  • more than ever he needs to start keeping his campaign promises
  • he needs to separate himself from Hillary -- if he is seen as supporting Paris/Kyoto, he's going to be seen as not that much different than Hillary on this issue
A couple of data points that still give me pause:
  • Ivanka has taken the opposite view based on other reports
  • ex-CEO of ExxonMobil, Tillerson has taken the opposite view based on other reports, and Tillerson may be Trump's "strongest" member of his cabinet 
As far as I can tell, Trump came back from Europe with exactly "no" wins. From Saudi Arabia and Israel, he came back with a wheelbarrow full of wins.

By the way, looking back the at the stories, the photos, the results, something tells me Trump enjoyed the first part of the trip a whole lot more than the second part of trip.

Worse, it wasn't even alphabetical.

Global Warming Update

Data points from US National Weather Service:
  • never since the U.S. Drought Monitor was established in 1999 has there been so little drought across the contiguous U.S. 
  • only 4.52% is in some degree of drought (D1-D4, where D1 is moderate drought and D4 is exceptional drought). 
  • 85.73% isn't even abnormally dry (D0). 
  • contrast that with the most widespread drought since 1999 in late September 2012 when 65.45% was at least D1. Only 23.41% wasn't considered at least abnormally dry.
US drought monitor.

Memo to self: e-mail link to Algore.

New Millenial Narrative For Losing: "I Nearly Won."

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