First things first: Sir Roger Penrose -- one of three to be jointly awarded Nobel Prize in Physics -- for work to understand black holes. Penrose has been around "forever." First time Nobel Prize? I believe so. Penrose: University of Oxford: Ghez; UCLA; fourth woman to win the physics prize; Genzel: Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics, Garching, German, and professor at UC-Berkely.
NYC second wave begins about .... right ... now ...
Long way to go. Quick! Pop quiz:
- population of New York state: ?
- number of New Yorkers who have tested positive for the Chinese flu: ?
- most conservative number expected to test positive by end of this pandemic (as a ratio or percent): ?
I believe herd immunity is about 65% (+/- with vaccine) -- let's check -- Mayo Clinic-- wow, not bad for a wag: 70% according to the Mayo Clinic.Answers:
- 20 million (population of New York state)
- 500,415 (number of New Yorkers who have tested positive so far)
- one-third or 33.3% (most conservative number based on Spanish flu pandemic of 1918
Doing the math:
- one-third of 20 million = 7 million
- 500,415/9 months = 55,000 / month
- 2 million / 55,000 / month = 36 months -- and that's just 10% of the population
- and 10% comes nowhere near "herd immunity"
- Let's say, just 10% test positive, that's still two million. A long way to go.
By the way, I did the same calculations for California a couple of days ago and got almost the same exact number: 40 months to get to 10% of the population to be infected at current rate. Law of big numbers.
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