Friday, April 29, 2022

Oil Surges; Six Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- April 29, 2022

ISO NE: even if price of electricity doesn't spike to the 6th and 7th deciles, it is consistently running much higher in price than what I'm used to seeing.

  • link here;
  • earlier this a.m. surged to $120/MWh
  • surged at same time as hydro "kicked in"; probably due to demand increasing as a new day begins, and wind, of course, does not respond

Oil surges:

  • Brent: up 1.68%; up $1.81; trading at $109.40
  • WTI: up 1.25%; up $1.32; trading at nearly $107
  • diesel: average price hit a new record high overnight, $5.155 / gallon
  • surpasses previous record of $5.153 / gallon set March 10, 2022
  • helps explain the Pelosi-Schumer silliness yesterday
  • White House monitoring the situation; all options on the table
    • except:
      • fewer regulations
      • no new pipelines
      • no new drilling
      • no fracking

Price of oil surging:

  • probably as much as a "short squeeze" as anything
  • all things equal, expect crude oil to fall next week
  • the fundamentals have not changed
    • GDP suggests we are in a recession already
    • plenty of oil in storage and in pipelines
    • refiners working at 90+% capacity
  • everything suggests plenty of oil (except perhaps "right" kind of oil -- see surging diesel prices; would be much worse if middle of winter and competing with heating oil)

White House: as much time spent on forgiving college loan debt as working to solve high-gasoline prices.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$106.70
4/29/202204/29/202104/29/202004/29/201904/29/2018
Active Rigs3616316462

Friday, April 29, 2022: 61 for the month, 61 for the quarter, 220 for one year

  • 38137, conf, CLR, Flint Chips Federal 10-5H, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
  • 37855, conf, Whiting, Lacey 43-2-2XH, Sanish, producing, a nice well,
  • 37703, conf, Whiting, Lacey 43-2XH, Sanish, producing, a nice well,
  • 37495, conf, True Oil, Northern State 31-36, North Branch, no production data,
  • 36522, conf, Hess, BB-State A-151-95-1615H-5, Blue Buttes, a very nice well,
  • 36107, conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 1-5H, Haystack Butte, a nice well;

RBN Energy: off-season blizzard slams Bakken natural gas production.

Extreme blizzard conditions wreaked havoc on North Dakota energy infrastructure last weekend, taking offline as much as 60% of the state’s crude oil production and more than 80% of natural gas output, and leaving utility poles and power lines strewn across the landscape. 
On the gas side, the unprecedented supply loss is having never-before-seen impact on regional and upstream flows and storage activity
It is also compounding maintenance-related production declines in other basins, leaving Lower 48 natural gas output at its lowest since early February. Moreover, the extent of the storm-related damage to local infrastructure could prolong the supply recovery. In today’s RBN blog, we break down the aftereffects of the offseason winter storm on regional gas market fundamentals.

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Initial Production

The wells:

  • 37855, conf, Whiting, Lacey 43-2-2XH, Sanish, producing, a nice well,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20222514721583
1-20223043021511
12-20212847617133
  • 37703, conf, Whiting, Lacey 43-2XH, Sanish, producing, a nice well,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20222134015237
1-20222343113050
12-2021172239990
  • 36522, conf, Hess, BB-State A-151-95-1615H-5, Blue Buttes, a very nice well,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20223031654681
1-20222722644196
12-20213638759815
11-20214149966551
10-202162249917
  • 36107, conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 1-5H, Haystack Butte, a nice well;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20222122737219
1-20223187949596
12-20213153945127
11-20212703335235
10-20213780

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