Tuesday, June 4, 2019

Peak Oil? -- GOM Production Poised To Set New Records -- Rigzone -- June 4, 2019

GOM: new records. Link here. Data points, Rystad estimates and figures:
  • 2019, average GOM, daily production, almost 2 million bopd (1.95 million bopd is their figure)
  • some months, production will "touch" two million bopd
  • 2013: GOM production averaged 1.3 million bopd
  • 2018: GOM production hit a high of 1.8 million bopd
I find it amazing that four little counties in western North Dakota are in the same ballpark as the huge GOM. North Dakota is producing about 1.2 million bopd -- within the GOM ballpark of 1.8 million bopd. Pretty amazing.

Appomattox: from the same link above -- Shell's largest floating platform in the GOM
will be key for the GOM to hit a production record
  • the company produced first oil from the Appomattox last month (May, 2019)
    • anticipates an average peak production of 175,000 boepd
    • Rystad predicts production will plateau at 140,000 boepd
  • top producers in the GOM
    • BP
    • Equinor
    • XOM
  • a combined Chevron - Anadarko Petroleum entity took first place on the list -- Rystad predicted that company would produce 400,000 boepd -- but not to be -- Chevron lost its bid for Anadarko to OXY
Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Tuesday, June 4, 2019: 7 for the month; 196 for the quarter;
  • 34804, 943, Nine Point Energy, Erickson 155-102-26-25-7H, Squires, t12/18; cum 99K 4/19; 
  • 33939, 160, Petro Harvester Operating Company, LLC, PTL2 4-28 164-92 B, Madison formation, Portal, t3/19; cum 4K 4/19;
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6461512581

RBN Energy: northeast gas takeaway capacity vs production in 2019.
The Northeast natural gas market turned a new leaf in 2018, when takeaway pipeline capacity to move supply out of the Marcellus/Utica producing region finally caught up to — and even began outpacing — production growth. More than 4 Bcf/d of takeaway expansions entered service in 2018. Prices at the region’s Dominion South supply hub improved relative to Henry Hub and other downstream markets. And for the first time in years, Appalachian gas producers and marketers caught a glimpse of what an unconstrained, balanced market driven by market economics (as opposed to transportation constraints) could look like. 2019 will be the first full year of operation for many of those takeaway expansions that came online in 2018. Northeast production growth flattened through the first few months of 2019, but has ticked up in the past couple of months, albeit modestly, and the slate of future takeaway expansion projects has shrunk to just a couple stalled projects. Where does that leave capacity utilization out of the region this summer, and how long will it be before production growth hits the capacity wall again? Today, we begin a series providing an update on the Northeast gas market and prospects for balancing takeaway capacity with production growth.
The Northeast gas market has come a long way since 2013, when it first began net exporting gas supply to the rest of the U.S. For years after that pivot, Marcellus/Utica producers were plagued by perpetual transportation constraints to move gas out of the region and depressed supply prices. The last five years were marked by dozens of pipeline expansions to relieve the constraints and balance oversupply conditions — primarily piecemeal modifications and reversals of legacy pipelines that were once needed to move gas into the Northeast before the Shale Era unlocked massive reserves in the Marcellus/Utica plays. But production continued to outpace those capacity additions — that is, until this past year, when some larger, long-term projects crossed the finish line.

No comments:

Post a Comment