Thursday, October 24, 2013

Does It Even Matter Any More? The Weekly Jobless Reports

The revisions always how an increase in the number of first-time jobless applying for benefits: this time it was 4,000. Four thousand first-time jobless applied for benefits more than were initially reported. (Does that grammatically sound right?)

There is always an "excuse." The excuse this time: computer glitches in California. I think they've been using the "California computer glitch" ("my dog ate my homework") excuse for about two months now.

So, in the Obama Parallel Universe everything is hunky dory -- everyone is signing up for ObamaCare and everybody is working. It is simply the computer glitches and the websites that are not reporting accurate data. What, me worry? [Which reminds me: the federal government has asked Blue Cross/Blue Shield NOT to report numbers of new ObamaCare enrollees. I can't make this stuff up, either.]

Reuters is reporting:
A Labor Department analyst said claims from the backlog in California were still working their way through the system.
Technical problems as California converted to a new computer system have distorted the claims data since September, making it difficult to get a clear read of labor market conditions.
I can't make this stuff up. And folks think the ObamaCare webpage can handle 7 million enrollees. Or whatever number one chooses.

But, for the archives, what are the fictitious numbers this week?
  • analysts expected number to fall to 340,000
  • actual: numbers rose to 350,000 (note how perfectly round that number is)
  • revised from last week: add 4,000 to the number
The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, rose 10,750 to 348,250. So, five years into this administration, umpteen years into this "recovery" and the four-week moving average is increasing. This is great news for the stock market: Ms Yellen is not going to taper, and the market knows it. It is up almost 50 points in early trading.

And for newbies: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here; or what you think you may have read here. For investment advice, follow: Jim Cramer, Herb Greenberg, and Alfred E Neuman. And 10,000 other talking heads.

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