For Those Who Thought This Would Be Over In A Week -- Libya

Updates

September 11, 2012: US ambassador to Libya killed. The administration has changed the story so many times; not linked. This link is fascinating: 

When terrorists attacked the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, on Sept. 11 of this year and killed the U.S. ambassador and three other Americans, there were no U.S. Marines deployed in Libya to defend U.S. diplomats, diplomatic facilities and classified information and equipment. However, says the State Department, a Marine Security Detachment was deployed on that day to carry out those duties at the U.S. Embassy in Bridgetown, Barbados. 

September 4, 2011: Is it over yet? Kadafi still on the run. 

August 14, 2011: Timeline for those who thought this would be over in a week. 

August 6, 2011: I remember getting a comment when the "Libyan thing" first broke out that "this would be over in a week and Kadafi was toast." The war continues, the rebels fight among themselves, and now today it is reported that Kadafi takes a key town back from the rebels and launches a new offensive. 

July 28, 2011: For those who thought the Libya "war" would be over "in a week," there are now confirmed reports that the rebel leader has been assassinated. There are rumors that there are internal "rifts" among the rebels. 

July 4, 2011: Libyan rebel leader -- ok, ok, ok -- Kadafi can stay in Libya. "As long as he resigns and remains under supervision." Let's see -- this all started in March, 2011 -- haven't heard from those who said this would be over in a week. 

April 16, 2011: The reason the US got involved in Libya, we were told, was to avert a humanitarian crisis. It looks like the results have just been the opposite: Kadafi is now using heavy weapons on civilians. Had the US not intervened when it did, the rebel uprising would have been shut down. One can argue whether there would have been a humanitarian disaster at that point, and at Kadafi's hands, but there is no question that things have turned out much worse than expected. When US air strikes began, "anonymous" wrote to say what many thought: "this would be over in a week and Kadafi was toast."  Kadafi may still be toast, but it certainly is not over in a week, and the humanitarian toll will be much greater than had we just stayed out. And some say the war is costing the US $2 billion/day.

April 7, 2011: NATO now fears a protracted, "never-ending" civil war. 

April 4, 2011: US pulls back its air force; then extends the air war for two days; then pulls it back again. Now Kadafi says he is staying but open for change. "Free" elections to determine if Libyans want him or someone else. Whoever thought this would be over in a week and Kadafi would be toast -- well, it's been since the end of February, and now it's April. And Kadafi looks to be calling the shots. There is talk his son will take over. 

March 17, 2011: Day 31. Kadafi surrounds last rebel outpost: there will be no mercy. UN scheduled to vote later on military action against Kadafi. President Obama preparing to leave to party in Rio.

March 14, 2011: The fourth week? And Libyan forces now have the upper hand. The US government won't take unilateral action. Europe, NATO, and UN still talking. Philosophically they want Kadafi out of there; practically, they want cheaper and accessible sweet oil. The discussion will be interesting to follow. Ya wanna bet which wins out: philosophy or reality? Mubarak was thrown under the bus in less than 72 hours by America; four weeks into the Libya thing, "we're" still looking for a bus.

March 7, 2011: well, the Libyan thing continues. What is this? The third week? So much for the thought that this would be over in a week (a reader, not me). Oil is up another $2 overnight, about $106 now.

March 3, 2011: so much for a quick end to the Libyan issue. Even analysts expect the loss of oil production from Libya to be lengthy. Who knows, it might be over tomorrow, but the situation suggests otherwise.

As a result of the standoff, the analyst predicted that, “An extended period of conflict—with commensurately lengthy disruption to oil supply—is looking even more likely than before.” 

March 2, 2011, morning: price of oil "surges" another buck; over $100/bbl; conflicting reports regarding who is in control of oil fields

March 1, 2011, evening: Gadhafi forces retake towns near Libyan capital.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he ordered two ships into the Mediterranean, including the amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge, and he is sending 400 Marines to the vessel to replace some troops that left recently for Afghanistan. [Just the other day, SecDef Gates said, “In my opinion, any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should ‘have his  head examined.'"]

March 1, 2011, evening: WTI oil futures continue to rise, now solidly over $100.  

March 1, 2011, morning: Oil price spikes $2.00, retraces; solidly over $99 as Mideast continues to smolder, and in some cases burn.

Oil prices climbed Tuesday as Iran clamped down on anti-government protesters and unrest in the Middle East threatened to keep energy prices high for months to come.

Benchmark West Texas Intermediate for April delivery gained $1.80 at $98.76 per barrel at midday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude gained $1.92 at $113.72 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

February 28, 2011: "Oil Rises Toward $98 as Traders Eye Libyan Exports." And so it goes, nine days into the Libyan issue.

Original Post

For those who thought this would be over in a week, and for those who thought Saudi could step up to the plate and diffuse fears, the oil futures suggest otherwise.

To the best of my knowledge, futures start posting at 6:00 p.m. CST.

At 7:00 p.m. in Chicago and 8:00 p.m. in New York City, Sunday night, February 27, 2011, oil futures are up $1.90 to $99.78.

It's been my "feeling" that futures seldom correlate with the opening the following day, and seem to correlate even less as the trading goes on.

But at least on Sunday night, about a week after "the Libyan thing" began, there is still a bit of anxiety in the markets.