Monday, September 30, 2019

3Q19 Earnings


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Earnings -- 3Q18

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NOG: press release; forecast here; forecast 11 cents; SeekingAlpha;
  • pre-market trading: NOG down 2.4%; down 5 cents
  • actual: 12 cents; beat by a penny
  • revenue: $150 million
  • revenue: missed by $2.70 million

Hess: here; also, here;
Hess Corp reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss and raised its full-year production forecast on Wednesday, owing to higher output at the U.S. oil and gas producer's assets in the Bakken shale.
Production from Bakken rose 38% to 163,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) in the quarter, helping net production, excluding Libya, rise about 4% to 290,000 boe/d.
Oil from seven big shale formations, particularly the Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico and the Bakken in North Dakota, have helped the United States become the biggest crude oil producer in the world.
Hess cut its capital expenditure by $100 million to $2.7 billion for the full year, while also raising its Bakken net production outlook to about 150,000 boe/d, up from 140,000 boe/d to 145,000 boe/d.
The company raised its annual net production expectation, excluding Libya, to about 285,000 boe/d, from the prior range of 275,000 boe/d to 280,000 boe/d.
Adjusted net loss was $98 million, or 32 cents per share, in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, compared with a profit of $29 million, or 6 cents per share, a year earlier.
Analyst on average expected a loss of 33 cents, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.
MRO: here

Enerplus (ERF): nice report Link here. Data points:

  • financial:
    • free cash flow: $160 million; adjusted, $175 million
    • net income: 28 cents/share; adjusted, 27 cents
    • from the CEO:
We grew our high-return production in North Dakota by 18% quarter-over-quarter, maintained our focus on costs, and returned over $70 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Year to date, we have now returned approximately $200 million to shareholders. Our 2019 plan remains on track to deliver 9 to 10% annual liquids production growth and 15% on a per share basis, while maintaining our low financial leverage."
  • production:
    • for quarter ending September 30, 2019
    • total crude oil production across all plays: 55,000 bopd 
    • crude oil production from the Bakken: 45,700 bopd
  • Presentations: link here.The 2Q19 transcript is available; the 3Q19 transcript is not yet available.
Cardinal Health:

    • QCOM beats; QCOM surges; up 5%; up $4.09
    • $4.8 billion vs $4.7 billion forecast
    • 78 cents vs 71 cents forecast
    • guide a bit stronger than expected; well-positioned as 5G accelerates in 2020
    • back in with Apple
BKH: misses top line, bottom line; shares fall about 5%; 44 cents vs estimates of 48 cents; missed revenue estimates by almost 20%; 

OXY: big miss; see this post

BRK: mixed report; many ways to report it; many ways to call it; bottom line -- in line with general market.

XOM, beats:
  • beat expectations
  • 49% slump in earnings for 3Q19, y/y
  • earnings: $3.17 billion, down from $6.24 billion one year ago
  • EPS: slumped from $1.46 last year this time to 75 cents 3Q19 (another source said, 68 cents)
  • revenue: $65.05 billion
  • boe production: increased by 3% y/y; at almost 4 million bopd; soared by 70 percent in the Permian
  • up 7 percent quarter/quarter (3Q19/2Q19)
  • remains world's largest publicly traded oil company; five producers out-produce XOM but all of the are state-controlled companies like Saudi Aramco, Rosneft, etc
CVX, misses:
  • 36% decline in earnings, y/y
  • EPS: $1.36 vs $1.45 forecast
  • revenue: $36.12 billion vs $37.69 billion forecast
  • earnings: $2.6 billion, down from $4 billion last year
  • revenue: $36.12 billion
SRE: beats on 3Q19 earnings; ups CY19 EPS view. Up $2.75, up almost 2%. Trading near 52-we high.

Crescent Point Energy: confirms 1 cent/share dividend.

  • EPS: 68 cents/share
  • operating earnings increased 24% y/y
  • winners: construction materials and services businesses
  • total revenue for 3Q19: $1.65 billion; up 22% from 1.28 billion y/y
Shell: mixed stories coming out of Shell -- one story has it that Shell says it is having macroeconomic problems; may affect plans for debt reduction; stock buyback; 15% y/y fall in 3Q profits; another story -- "Shell's earning positively surprise Wall Street" -- but shares in pre-market trading down significantly. Link here:
  • posted lower-than-expected decline in earnings
  • earnings, on an adjusted basis, slumped 15% y/y to $4.9 billion
  • a lot lower than analysts' estmated of 26%
  • earnings of $1.18 beat analysts' estimate of 99 cents
  • Shell's revenues of $86.6 billion beat analysts' estimates of $73.7 billion
  • previous quarter: earnings touched a two-year low and missed the forecast
CLR:  From the press release:

  • $158.2 million in net income in 3Q19, or $0.43 per diluted share
  • $199.4 million adjusted net income in 3Q19, or $0.54 per diluted share (non-GAAP)
  • 198,074 average daily 3Q19 oil production up 20% over 3Q18
  • 332,315 boepd average daily 3Q19 production up 12% over 3Q18
  • Bakken: 145,436 average daily 3Q19 oil production up 13% over 3Q18
  • 57 gross operated wells deliver 2,313 boepd average/well initial rate
  • South: 44,854 average daily 3Q19 oil production up 62% over 3Q18
  • SpringBoard exceeded 3Q19 target by 31%: 23,641 bopd; 4Q19 target raised to ~24,000 Bopd
  • CLR STACK: two, 7-well oil units deliver exceptional results: 38,320 bopd combined initial rate
  • $187 million of share repurchases executed through October 29, 2019
  • quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share in November 2019

AAPL: extraordinary. "Handily topped expectations."
  • revenue: $64 billion, up from $62.9 billion a year earlier; above the consensus, $63 billion
  • EPS: $3.05, up from $2.91, and beat expectations of $2.83
  • net income dropped to $13.7 billion from $14.1 billion
  • Gene Munster's analysis noteworthy
  • says AAPL is a consumer staple; should carry similar P/E multiples like KO, or Proctor & Gamble (PG); PG P/E at 77; KO: 30; AAPL: 20; closer to P/E of 25 which would put AAPL at $350 -- where Munster thinks it should be 
FB: outstanding. Amazing.

Baker Hughes: looks like GE got rid of one of their divisions actually making money --
  • Orders of $7.8 billion for the quarter, up 19% sequentially and up 35% year-over-year
  • Revenue of $5.9 billion for the quarter, down 2% sequentially and up 4% year-over-year
  • GAAP operating income of $297 million for the quarter, increased 10% sequentially and increased 5% year-over-year
  • Adjusted operating income (a non-GAAP measure) of $422 million for the quarter, up 17% sequentially and up 12% year-over-year*
  • GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.11 for the quarter which included $0.10 per share of adjusting items. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (a non-GAAP measure) were $0.21*
  • Cash flows generated from operating activities were $360 million for the quarter. Free cash flow (a non-GAAP measure) for the quarter was $161 million*
MDU: link here;

COP: 75 cents, before market open -- down 1% pre-market trading; report here:
  • earnings: $3.1 billion vs $1.9 billion same quarter last year
  • $2.74/share vs $1.59/share same quarter last year
  • adjusted earnings: 82 cents vs 75 cents forecast; $1.36/share adjust same quarter last year
  • repurchased $0.75 billion; paid $0.34 billion in dividends; a return of 41% to shareholders
  • 3Q19 production grew 7 percent overall (excludes Libya)
  • increased production from the Lower 48 Big 3 unconventionals by 21 percent y/y
INTC: did very, very wells; earnings surprise. 

Amazon: after market close -- shares fell 8% after earnings miss. AWS revenue was $9.0 billion in the quarter, up from $6.68 billions a year ago, with operating income at $2.26 billion versus $2.098 billion a year ago. Sales of $70 billion, up 24% from a year ago, at the high end of the company's guidance range of $66 billion to $70 billion, and ahead of the Street consensus of $68.8 billion. Earnings: "$4.23/share well below the consensus of $4.60/share." [Actually I wouldn't call that much of a miss at all -- buying opportunity when shares fall 8% on an incredibly good report for those with a long horizon. See disclaimer.]

EW: link here. 3Q19 earnings, link here. Zacks.

MSFT: shares flat after earnings released; beats expectations. Revenue of $33.1 billion, up 14% from quarter year ago; forecast of $32.23 billion; EPS were $1.38/share, up 24% from a year ago, and beats consensus of $1.24. Operating income was $12.7 billion, up 27%. Huge quarter and yet share price flat. Concern for AAPL yet to report?

F: mixed but overall looks like a good report. Link here

TSLA: huge quarter. Link here

TSLA, October 3, 2019 -- forecasts for another quarterly loss; this site says about a $1.40 loss for the 3Q19; another source says a 24-cent loss for quarter; Tesla will probably report late October, 2019.

UNP: shares surge day after transcript released; revenue of $5.5 billion, a 7% y/y increase, missing estimates of $5.67; EPS, $2.22 a 3.3% y/y increase but missing expectations of $2.31. Operating ratio hits an all-time quarterly record.

MCD: duck, duck, goose. Miss, miss, plummet. Revenue, $5.43 billion vs $5.49 forecast; EPS, $2.11 vs $2.21 forecast; shares tumble 4% in pre-market. One person comment: prices at McDonald's have gotten too high. I agree. The prices for a single meal are trending toward what one might pay at Applebee's. Wow, scores of comments and they all say the same thing: too expensive. 

JPM: record profits; record share price; unexpected;

Bank of America: earning surprise on the upside; drive market higher; bank earning were supposed to be lower

GS: earnings disappoint; 

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