Wednesday, March 8, 2017

"Holy Nightmare, Batman, What Do We Do Now?" -- March 8, 2017

Wow, to put this in perspective, look at the previous updates at this post.

This is the most recent graphic of Saudi Arabia's cash reserves:


Look at that huge drop-off from December, 2016, to January, 2017, most current data. 

Saudi Arabia is in deep doo-doo.

It needs $100-oil.

It re-adjusted its national budget based on $80-oil for 2017.

The country most recently said it hopes to see $60-oil in 2017.

We're looking at $55-oil (Brent) and trending down.

Cry me a river.

I "predicted" there would be a month-over-month drop going into January, 2017, but I honestly never thought it would be that .... well, that graphic.

I mean, look at that drop. It's hard to read the numbers, but it looks like November to December (2016) it was "only" a drop from 2,020,000 to 2,010,000 million SAR ($2.7 billion) but the most recent data suggests a drop from 2,010,000 to 1,960,000 million SAR ($13.5 billion).

One Saudi riyal equals about a US quarter, more accurately 27 cents.

So, 2,010,000 million SAR x 0.27 = $542,700,000,000 or $542.700 billion.

and, 1,960,000 million SAR x 0.27 = 529,200,000,000 or 529.200 billion.

In the February note, it looked like the month-over-month decrease was in the $8 billion range and between November/December, 2016, the delta might have been significantly less, maybe $3 billion, but my calculations suggest the drop was closer to $14 billion between January, 2017, and December, 2016.

I'm assuming John Kemp will provide an update.

Disclaimer: I often make simple errors in arithmetic. If this is important to you, talk to Prince Salman. 

Sukiyaki, Kyu Sakamoto
Translation: "Like the Saudis, I look up, so the tears won't fall."

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