Permian Basin NGLs Doubled In Past Four Years; May Double Again -- RBN Energy -- September 14, 2017

Active rigs:

$49.66↑	9/14/2017	09/14/2016	09/14/2015	09/14/2014	09/14/2013
Active Rigs	55	34	68	199	178

RBN Energy: update on Permian NGL

Natural gas liquids production in the Permian Basin has doubled in the past four years, and may well double again by 2022.

That rapid growth — driven by the pursuit of Permian crude oil and the resulting production of large volumes of NGL-rich associated gas — threatens to overwhelm the region’s existing gas processing and NGL-pipeline infrastructure.

This is a big deal, because if there’s not enough gas processing and NGL takeaway capacity out of the Permian, exploration and production companies (E&Ps) in the U.S.’s hottest shale play would be forced to slow the pace of their development.

One of the surer bets in an energy industry rife with uncertainty is that production of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in the Permian will continue rising.

The hydrocarbon resources in the best parts of the Permian are extraordinary, and E&Ps active in the play have — after considerable effort — cracked the code to wringing vast volumes of crude and NGL-packed associated gas from new wells there at a remarkably low cost per barrel of oil equivalent (boe). But production growth can only occur if sufficient supporting infrastructure is in place to process and transport all the crude, gas and NGLs emerging from wellheads across the 70,000-square-mile Permian region.

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Re-Posting

Crude oil demand:

The IEA sees strongest global oil-demand growth in two years.

Global oil demand will climb this year by the most since 2015, the International Energy Agency said, amid stronger-than-expected consumption in Europe and the U.S.

The IEA, which advises most major economies on energy policy, increased its estimate for demand growth in 2017 by 100,000 barrels a day to 1.6 million a day, or 1.7 percent. The re-balancing of oversupplied world markets is continuing, it said, with OPEC supplies falling for the first time in five months and inventories of refined fuels in developed nations subsiding toward average levels.

EV revolution? Not so fast!

Electric cars won't save European auto makers as diesel sales drop. Manufacturers are focused instead on making more gasoline-powered vehicles to offset the shortfall.

As sales of diesel-powered cars dive in Europe, the Continent’s car makers, heavily invested in the technology, are scrambling to offset the shortfall.
Electric cars, often said to be the future of the industry, aren’t the solution—at least not yet.

High prices for electric cars, the scarcity and inconvenience of charging stations and the vehicles’ inability to travel long distances have put off drivers. Car makers, who dragged their feet for years on electric cars, also have few models in the market to lure diesel-driving consumers.  

“Why are we investing so much into a market that is a niche of a niche of a niche?” one person asked.

Mr. Müller said Volkswagen had to have its feet planted firmly on both sides of the field. It had to keep developing the combustion engine until the market for new technology takes off. “That’s why I say the technologies will have to coexist,” he said. “One day, electric vehicles will make up 25% of our sales.”

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The Lego Page

I have resisted posting this note for the past month, but I can resist no longer.

This is most unusual. When Lego announces the availability of a high-demand set, it is not unusual for it to sell out almost immediately. Lego posts ""temporarily out of stock" for the item on its website, and generally, within a few weeks, some days, within a few days, the item is available again. Occasionally Lego places a limit on how many of one set a customer may purchase.

But this one has me scratching my head. I think this Lego set must be setting a record for how long it has been "temporarily unavailable."

I check every one to three days just out of curiosity. I was able to order one when it first became available. Today, it is still "temporarily unavailable."

It seems there are only a few possibilities: a) manufacturing glitch of some sort (incredibly unlikely); b) designers have noted a flaw (possibly); c) Lego questioning whether the set is "politically correct" (I would not know why, except some, I suppose, could confuse it with a North Korean ICBM); and/or, d) a licensing glitch with some company involved in design and/or manufacturing of the "real thing."

On a side note: the Disney Castle, often "temporarily unavailable" in the early days, is now easily available.

It will be interesting if Lego can keep this model in stock when it becomes available: the Millennium Falcon, officially the largest Lego set ever sold (7,541 pieces; $799 (free shipping). It becomes available in stores in October 1, 2017.